Follow the Polls

Second Sunday.

Papers talking about a Tory wipeout. Seats as little as 66.

But no real discernible movement.

According to the radio, earlier, the Tories have regained a couple of points. Nothing to do with Labour, just that the Reform support has started to drop.

(On their part - not mine ha!).

Me too! Wishful thinking.

Oh! Some movement according to the Telegraph.

Tories now on 19% and hopefully will get a respectable 66 seats after the election😄😄😄

I’m sure it is rubbish.

Day heavens alone knows.

Not a smidgeon of movement. I reckon the computers have been nobbled.

Todays promise might move it!

£20 million for 30 towns. Or is that £30 million for 20 towns. Still, whatever, haven’t a clue how it will be funded, but what does it matter as long as the polls show some life.

Well: large poll by Electoral Calculus and Find out Now campaign suggests the Conservative Party is on course for its worst result in history.

LAB: 493 (+297)
CON: 72 (-300)
LDM: 39 (+31)
SNP: 22 (-26)
PLC: 4 (+2)
GRN: 2 (+1)

With Tactical Voting:
LAB: 476 (+280)
CON: 66 (-306)
LDM: 59 (+51)
SNP: 26 (-22)
PLC: 3 (+1)
GRN: 2 (+1)

More than 10,000 people were surveyed for the Daily Mail and GB News
Details: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Day - god knows

This is beginning to get boring now.

Not an inch of movement.

Expect Sunak to promise a food free week or some such if he wins the election, Not sure what else he can do.

Surely something will happen soon.

Perhaps Sunak will throw in the towel.

Another good piece of information for the nerds comparing MPs standing down by party to previous elections and the main reasons given. Updated this morning.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/mps-standing-down-general-election

Good oh! Hope that is correct.

According to the commentator I'm following the indications at the moment seem to be that the 'don't know' potential vote is split pretty evenly between tory and Labour. Mostly on the evidence of a recent poll of 'don't knows'

In a large sample poll published yesterday Redfield and Wilton asked 1,411 “don’t knows” who they were leaning towards. There was no evidence of a skew towards the Tories.

(Sorry, can't link to this as it is a subscription blog)

Whitewavemark2

Sillymoo

I heard on radio 5 this morning that the Don't Knows are 10-15% so could have a big impact if they decide to vote.

Yes, and I suspect the majority of them are conservative voters, given the mess the Tories are in.

So the polls will close quite a lot towards the end I think.

There was a very interesting article on Sky yesterday about how different polling companies allocate the undecided when they make their predictions.
news.sky.com/story/general-election-2024-why-are-different-polling-companies-getting-such-different-results-13145117
I felt quite reassured on reading it, that actually the poll of polls is the most accurate assessment of what may happen.

Sillymoo

I heard on radio 5 this morning that the Don't Knows are 10-15% so could have a big impact if they decide to vote.

Yes, and I suspect the majority of them are conservative voters, given the mess the Tories are in.

So the polls will close quite a lot towards the end I think.

WW this is brilliant - thanks for doing it🙏

I heard on radio 5 this morning that the Don't Knows are 10-15% so could have a big impact if they decide to vote.

Week 1 completed.

No change in the polls - there have been some outliers going in opposite directions but the poll of polls to be found on politico, bbc and sky show no movement.

So state of play after one week of frantic activity is the same as we started.

I’ve put in predicted seats with predicted % vote just for a change

Current Prediction: Labour majority 308

Party
CON23% seats 92

LAB44%. Seats 479

LIBDem 9% Seats 44

Reform11%. Seats 0

Green. 6% Seats 2

SNP. 3% Seats 12

PlaidC 0.6% seats 3

Other 1
DUP 7
SF 7

It's like watching dominoes falling over!

Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle has been suspended by the Labour Party over a complaint about his behaviour.
The MP for Brighton Kemptown has been told by the party he will not be eligible to be a candidate at 4 July's election.
Only five weeks to go now, let’s hope he is the last suspension before the election.

MaizieD

MaizieD

Callistemon21

12% of 18-24 year olds intend to vote for Reform?
Is that right?

Why shouldn't it be?

Looking more closely, the 18 - 24 y old vote for Reform seems to mirror their parents and grandparents. Which is probably understandable. As they get older they display more independent thought...

Not sure about that, maybe they don’t understand the Reform Party and just latched onto the word Reform.Who knows.
Under 21 more likely to vote Green or Labour you’d think.

Seems that Sunak's Barmy Army idea has bombed in the polls. Too many gimmicks methinks.

More information

Report on under 50s

NEW: YouGov's under-50 voting intention

Labour: 59%
Greens: 12%
Conservatives: 8%
Reform: 8%
Lib Dems: 6%

YouGov's over-50 voting intention

Sky just confirmed this increase.

So Labour 47% +3

Tories 20% -2

Lib Dem 9%

Reform 12% -2

Greens 7% + 1

So it seems after what has been announced over the past week that the voter is being turned off by the right and turning instead towards the centre ground.

So this is something interesting.

You-gov are reporting that Labour have extended their lead to a near record high at 47%.

That was reported on newsnight last night.

It is the first complete poll since the announcement of national service, so make of that what you will.

MaizieD

MaizieD

Callistemon21

12% of 18-24 year olds intend to vote for Reform?
Is that right?

Why shouldn't it be?

Looking more closely, the 18 - 24 y old vote for Reform seems to mirror their parents and grandparents. Which is probably understandable. As they get older they display more independent thought...

Perhaps I was just a Contrary Mary when I was younger although I couldn't vote until I was 21+ of course.

I thought that was the prerogative of the young? To rebel against the older generations?