Follow the Polls

MaizieD

Callistemon21

12% of 18-24 year olds intend to vote for Reform?
Is that right?

Why shouldn't it be?

Looking more closely, the 18 - 24 y old vote for Reform seems to mirror their parents and grandparents. Which is probably understandable. As they get older they display more independent thought...

Callistemon21

12% of 18-24 year olds intend to vote for Reform?
Is that right?

Why shouldn't it be?

Day 6.

Polls remain the same despite the Telegraph getting exited about a poll from JP partners suggesting that the difference had narrowed to 12 points.

So does this mean that we are finally going to see some movement?

Perhaps this week will see the start of an expected narrowing as the weeks progress.

12% of 18-24 year olds intend to vote for Reform?
Is that right?

The latest Westminster Voting Intention by age groups shows that 33% of over 65s intend to vote Labour, 26% tory & 15% Reform. Reform splitting the tory vote.

Today’s update on resignations from the BBC.

We've just had news that another MP is standing down at this general election - this time it's the MP for Swansea West Geraint Davies.

He is currently suspended from the Labour Party following allegations of sexual harassment, which he denies, and has been sitting as an independent.

Earlier today, two more MPs announced they will not be standing in July's election.

Labour's Lyn Brown, who has represented the east London constituency of West Ham since 2005.

And former Plaid Cymru MP Jonathan Edwards, who accepted a police caution for assaulting his wife. Edwards says he considered running against his former party, but has said on "deep reflection" he decided it was time for him to step down.

It means a total of 130 MPs have so far said they will not stand at the election. Here is the breakdown by party as it stands:

Conservative: 78
Labour: 29
SNP: 9
Sinn Fein: 3
Green: 1
Plaid Cymru: 1
Independent: 9

I still want to see a list of what’s happened with each of the MPs who have lost the whip, looks like 9 of them are going.

Day 5

Still stuck in the same lane. Not an inch of movement.

Voters so far seem impervious to everything the parties are throwing at them. I reckon they are waiting for the gaffs to begin.

Sunak lost another MP, this time to reform. He spent the day delighting in his national service plan, which seems only to be appealing to our age group according to polls. But perhaps it is more about appealing to potential reform voters than anything else, as they are the ones who tend to like discipline (oh my!)

Starmer made his launch speech with the theme of “change” (who knew), and apart from having a pop at Sunak’s Teenage Dads Army - we learned very little we didn’t already know.

I read that whereas Sunak has to work hard to lose with only a small defeat. Starmer simply has to carry on with what he has been doing and ensure the polls remain as they are.

That seems what is, at the moment being played out.

Whitewavemark2 - Hahaaa, I know. Politically astute people know all this. I’m just alarmed though at how many aren’t. And those are people who vote too.

I don't blame him.
He needs to think of himself and his health and his family now.

Long-standing Labour MP Kevin Brennan, Cardiff West has just announced he is standing down, citing rethink following prostate cancer surgery. He is 64.

Sorry, Reform, not Regorm.

All of a sudden today things are kicking off. Sunak has suspended an outgoing MP for openly backing the Regorm candidate for her seat, and a memo criticising some MPs has been sent accidentally.
news.sky.com/story/conservatives-admit-sending-email-critical-of-own-mps-in-error-13144041

Well that would be like the Monaco Grand Prix yesterday where the first five positions at the start were the same five positions at the finish. Just going round in circles for 78 days!

Say the polls don’t move an iota!! That would be a turn up and completely scupper us😄

Casdon

All bases are covered on this thread, all polls wherever they come from, and bookies odds. Defections, resignations, expert views - you name it. It’s turning out so far to be a lot more interesting regarding what’s actually happening than most political threads do, thanks to WWM2.

👍 and as Whitewavemark2 said, a bit of fun too.

Whitewavemark2

Someone was saying that we will have to wait until week 3/4 - that is when things begin to unravel a bit.

Yes. I don't, however, think either of the two leaders will make any huge howlers, though I could be wrong. Rishi doesn't always listen to other people talking because he is in such a hurry to say what he wants to impart. I actually think Starmer might come across as more relaxed and measured, but he can sound boring.
It's possible that, under stress as things hot up, one of them might lose the plot, but just talking about their own backgrounds isn't really putting them under pressure.
I just wish they both could improve their sense of humour and laugh at themselves more, a bit like Reagen used to with a glint in his eye.

All bases are covered on this thread, all polls wherever they come from, and bookies odds. Defections, resignations, expert views - you name it. It’s turning out so far to be a lot more interesting regarding what’s actually happening than most political threads do, thanks to WWM2.

The best way to follow progress is to check the betting odds. Bookies rarely lose!
www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats?selectionName=labour

The clue is in the OP.

A bit of fun.

Gundy

*You cannot rely on polls for accuracy!*
They are often wrong, incomplete, skewed, or biased in their information. There is NOT one reliable poll over another.

Then, lo and behold! - the electorate fools everyone by the actual voter outcome and the person you believed was going to win ended up being the loser when you wake up in the morning.

Polls are mostly money making endeavors for the pollSTERS.

Thanks for that bit of information that of course none of us knew!!😄😄

You cannot rely on polls for accuracy!
They are often wrong, incomplete, skewed, or biased in their information. There is NOT one reliable poll over another.

Then, lo and behold! - the electorate fools everyone by the actual voter outcome and the person you believed was going to win ended up being the loser when you wake up in the morning.

Polls are mostly money making endeavors for the pollSTERS.

Casdon

Whitewavemark2

Urmstongran

Great 👍

Yes but I understand say 10/1 - that £10 back for every pound you bet.

But what does 2/17 mean?

I looked it up. This is the principle.

A bet with odds of 9/1 odds has a 10% probability of occurring, whereas a bet with odds of 1/2 has a 50% probability.

I can’t do the maths off the top of my head, but 2/17 odds must be very much in favour of a Labour victory.

Very simple - just round it up to 2/18 = 9 to 1
So basically 2/17 means Labor are minutely ahead at c 9.something!

The latest polls (last night) collated by the BBC.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726

Day 4

No movement.

Yesterdays headlines

Tory - will bring back a form of conscription.

Labour - will not raise income tax or NI

Someone was saying that we will have to wait until week 3/4 - that is when things begin to unravel a bit.