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Follow the Polls

(710 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 07:29:20

I am not sure if it will be possible over the next 42 days, but I thought it would be fun to try to see. How the polls perform after the various gaffs that the politicians will inevitably make.

Whilst the gap is huge at the moment, it will almost certainly close as the days go by.

I think I’ll use Politico (poll of polls)

Whitewavemark2 Fri 24-May-24 06:45:08

Day 1 passed without any notable incident.

Sunak, however did manage to peeve the Welsh over their failure to make the grade in the European football, and was caught out planting Tory councillors in order to get easy questions in the biscuit factory. He also seems intent on a one man success in breaking the U.K. carbon footprint in his jet.

Starmer seems to have managed to have got away without any incident, invisibility won’t cut it though, and he needs to make waves soon.

No movement in the polls.

Callistemon21 Fri 24-May-24 00:19:19

It will make it interesting!

Siope Thu 23-May-24 23:44:26

585 will have new boundaries, 65 will not.

But they won’t call change equally and some previous seats will effectively vanish.

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/boundary-review-2023-which-seats-will-change/

Callistemon21 Thu 23-May-24 23:29:55

Siope

Please let this, via Electoral Calculus, be right

How many constituencies have had boundary changes?

Siope Thu 23-May-24 23:01:10

Please let this, via Electoral Calculus, be right

Casdon Thu 23-May-24 20:48:40

Maybe there’s a master list with new candidates waiting in the wings already? I wonder what will happen to MPs who have lost the whip.

MayBee70 Thu 23-May-24 20:46:11

Supposedly they’ve been told not to announce that they are not restanding all at once as it won’t look very good.

Casdon Thu 23-May-24 20:42:07

I missed one. Transport minister Huw Merriman, Conservative MP for Bexhill and Battle, in East Sussex, says he will not contest his seat.

Nigel Farage said he had been wrong footed, and that six weeks is not long enough to contest a seat from scratch. I rarely agree with him, but I think he’s right about that. Regardless of party, when MPs resign now it won’t leave long for their constituencies to elect and bed in new candidates - which could risk bad appointments.

MayBee70 Thu 23-May-24 20:30:39

Didn’t know this about Laing “After details of MPs' expense claims were released by the press in 2009 it was shown that Laing had avoided paying £180,000 capital gains tax on the sale of her Westminster flat by declaring it as her primary residence. This was due to its having a higher value than her constituency home, making it her primary residence under capital gains tax rules. However she had registered the flat as her second home with the Parliamentary Fees Office, and by doing so had claimed through her Additional Costs Allowance some of the interest due on her mortgage. Laing's constituency is Epping Forest, which neighbours London and less than an hour's journey by tube. When questioned, she said that prior to the sale of the flat she had sought the advice of her solicitor.[33] Laing was cleared by the Legg Inquiry; nonetheless, she voluntarily repaid £25,000 as a "moral gesture".[34] As a result of the issue over her expenses, an unsuccessful attempt was made to deselect her by her constituency party, led by the Leader of Epping Forest District Council.[35]”

MayBee70 Thu 23-May-24 20:25:51

Casdon

Off to an exciting start.

Trump says he’s backing Starmer…oh good.

Two Tory MPs have announced that they won’t be standing. Deputy Commons Speaker Dame Eleanor Laing MP for Epping Forest, and Jo Churchill, MP for Bury St Edmunds and work and pensions minister.

Sunak has put his foot in it in Wales by asking if we were looking forward to the Euros. It went to the wire, we didn’t qualify, and it’s a very sore point.

Oh no. Another Conservative leader who pretends to be interested in football but isn’t grin

Casdon Thu 23-May-24 20:17:04

Crikey - and another. Michael Ellis, former attorney general, paymaster general, Tory MP for Northampton north.

Casdon Thu 23-May-24 18:57:39

Three more MPs are not standing at the election.

Labour former minister Kevan Jones, North Durham, said it would be "impossible" for him to campaign due to planned surgery and treatment for an "ongoing condition".

Labour MP for Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue also announced her intention not to stand again, as did Tory MP for Leigh, James Grundy.

Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 18:55:14

Casdon

Whitewavemark2

Apparently there was a Tory councillor plant in an audience giving Sunak easy questions at McVities warehouse.

This is such an idiotic basic error.

You could almost say it took the biscuit….

Groan😀

winterwhite Thu 23-May-24 18:53:32

Am looking forward to the polls discussion but unsure how it will work. I only know Politico. Will someone be giving us the Sky ones each morning? V good idea

Casdon Thu 23-May-24 17:06:51

Whitewavemark2

Apparently there was a Tory councillor plant in an audience giving Sunak easy questions at McVities warehouse.

This is such an idiotic basic error.

You could almost say it took the biscuit….

Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 17:04:07

Not sure but it is working apparently. So higher mortgages, higher NHS waiting lists, higher immigration, higher food prices, higher fuel prices.

MaizieD Thu 23-May-24 16:29:34

Whitewavemark2

Urmstongran

Tories challenge Starmer to a record six TV debates
Rishi Sunak willing to debate the Labour leader every week of the election campaign to prove his opponent has no plan …

That is what the Tories are trying to push, that Starmer has no plan.

But a bit of a sticky wicket there because so far nothing of Sunak’s plan is working, and Labour have been playing their cards very close to their chest because of the Tories propensity to pinch Labour’s ideas - having none of their own.

I'm still really hard put to work out just what Sunak's 'plan' ever was. Did he ever tell us?

Wheniwasyourage Thu 23-May-24 16:27:55

What worries me even more than Trump is this. Who does Putin want to win? shock

Casdon Thu 23-May-24 16:21:04

Is this an indication that the election has captured the interest of younger voters after all?
news.sky.com/story/general-election-why-was-things-can-only-get-better-playing-during-rishi-sunaks-statement-13141643

Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 14:47:29

Apparently there was a Tory councillor plant in an audience giving Sunak easy questions at McVities warehouse.

This is such an idiotic basic error.

Wyllow3 Thu 23-May-24 14:36:02

The news (Express) just said "someone inside Trumps camp" etc. could be anything or nothing.

Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 14:30:38

T he Tory party never really chose Sunak, in the end they did so out of desperation, but he is a very poor political performer, and public debate is not his strength. Not sure what is tbh.

Casdon Thu 23-May-24 14:19:23

I agree on Trump Whitewavemark2, thrilled does not describe my reaction either.

I’m looking forward to the debates, Starmer is a better debater than Sunak if PMQs is anything to go by - but my favourite would be Yvette Cooper against James Cleverley, I really hope that happens.

Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 14:17:56

nanna8

If I take part in pre election polls I sometimes make stuff up like many others . They are rarely accurate and I think they are a waste of time and money.

Why on earth would you make stuff up? That is just plain weird!

Whitewavemark2 Thu 23-May-24 14:17:05

Urmstongran

Tories challenge Starmer to a record six TV debates
Rishi Sunak willing to debate the Labour leader every week of the election campaign to prove his opponent has no plan …

That is what the Tories are trying to push, that Starmer has no plan.

But a bit of a sticky wicket there because so far nothing of Sunak’s plan is working, and Labour have been playing their cards very close to their chest because of the Tories propensity to pinch Labour’s ideas - having none of their own.