Follow the Polls

Actually, Maizie I read a Sky News report recently that said the very same. They said that, if the Conservatives win this election, the entire polling industry will be totally discredited overnight!

I still can’t bring myself to believe the polls though😱

If Labour doesn't win I think that just about every polling company in the UK will go bust 😆

Thanks Casdon. I haven’t got any family that go to the tournaments so not sure how they would do it. The way you describe makes sense. Sorry Wales didn’t get through this time - but it’s only football🤷‍♀️

DH watched it on TV today and I had a sudden panic that all those fans would stay out there until Saturday - thereby missing the GE😱

I must stop overthinking this. God, will I be glad when it’s Thursday and whatever happens, happens!

I doubt it will have much impact because the next England match isn’t until 6th July, so most fans are likely to come home to work this week, and fly back out to Germany next weekend. Most fans take their holidays at the beginning of the tournament when the matches are all close together at the knock out stage so they can travel between venues. (My family go to the Euros when Wales get through, I imagine England fans do similar).

This is going to sound like a stupid question but I’m going to ask it anyway:

Does anyone think the England football fans being out in Germany will have any impact on the voting numbers? I somehow can’t imagine many of them doing postal votes prior to the tournament (apologies to those that have).

I might be overthinking the whole thing. It’s probably the nerves kicking in now we’re on the home stretch😬

No, not for my benefit, I just wondered why it didn’t add up, and guessed that was the reason - don’t know if this thread has any NI followers who would?

Casdon

I presume the Northern Ireland seats are excluded Whitewavemark2, as it doesn’t add up to 650?

Yes, roll on Thursday.

Yes i dithered about whether to include them but laziness took over - would you like me to post them?

I presume the Northern Ireland seats are excluded Whitewavemark2, as it doesn’t add up to 650?

Yes, roll on Thursday.

LizzieDrip

WW you’re a star⭐️

This poll above looks amazing! Surely it’s too good to be true🙈

I can’t wait for Thursday when the polling stations open, then it’ll be down to democracy!

Yeah, def too good to be true, but no need to fear, Labour will still win big😄

WW you’re a star⭐️

This poll above looks amazing! Surely it’s too good to be true🙈

I can’t wait for Thursday when the polling stations open, then it’ll be down to democracy!

The last week - all coming up by the straight. Electoral Calculus figures

Pred seats
CON 65
LAB 465
LIB 71
Reform. 6
Green 3
SNP 18
PlaidC 3
Other 1

Dated 27/06

I’ll do a daily one if I can until Thursday.

Spain doesn’t count😄😄

We enjoy a good dry fino sherry with tapas when in mi Casa WWM2! Actually so do most Spaniards and they tend to be socialists!

Occasional drinker here. Gin & tonic is nectar. Sloe gin, too, but it doesn't get a mention ☹️

Red wine drinker here, I hope that doesn’t mean I’m only very slightly Labour with that 4% difference. We had some very nice indeed South African red tonight, oh dear.

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Thanks WWM - does the fact that I'd drink most of these make me floating voter, or (hic) an alcoholic?

I’m OK Gin and tonic😀. Anyone going to admit to sherry?

Oh no, my tipple is white wine and it’s a tie between Labour & Tory😱 Do I need to change my drink of choice🙈🙈🙈

This might suit us all better😀

In the absence of any movement in the polls thought I’d post this for a change.

From The Conversation

This time next week we will know for sure!!

The United Kingdom general election will be held in a week, on July 4. Polls close at 7am AEST on July 5. The 650 members of the House of Commons are elected by first-past-the-post, in which the candidate with the most votes wins the seat.

In the UK, votes are not counted at individual polling places, but are instead transported to a central place for counting within that seat. This delays the results, so the vast majority of seats will be declared from late morning to mid-afternoon AEST on July 5.

The Guardian’s national poll tracker has Labour leading the Conservatives by just over 20 points. Vote shares are 41.3% Labour, 21.0% Conservatives, 15.5% for the far-right Reform, 11.1% Liberal Democrats and 5.8% Greens. Recent individual polls have Labour leading the Conservatives by 16 to 24 points.

In the last few weeks, there has been a surge for Reform and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems, at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives. Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has been unchanged.

If these polls are replicated at the election, Labour will win a landslide, owing to the first-past-the-post system. The Guardian’s seat forecast is for Labour to win 424 of the 650 seats, the Conservatives 135, the Lib Dems 47 and the Scottish National Party (SNP) 19.

I think the PR we have in Scotland is a lot better than FPTP. It’s the only way that people who vote Tory or Green would ever have been represented at Holyrood. If only the UK and Belarus (in Europe) use FPTP, you have to ask yourself if everyone else is wrong, don’t you?

We have partial PR in Wales too, and I’m unconvinced it works any better, because candidates don’t have the same local knowledge and they can war with each other over local issues to a greater extent when both (or more) cover the same patch. I’m really on the fence.

PR.. Is in Scotland, not sure the SNP and the Greens are getting it perfect.