Follow the Polls

I’ve got several preferred Portillo moments:

Jeremy Hunt
Penny Mordant
Geoffrey Cox - such an arrogant, bombastic man who deserves to be brought down a peg or two.

WW re why I’m sceptical of the polls, I read an interesting piece on Sky News online today. In effect, someone at LPHQ says they simply dare not think they will win. He said ‘Labour hearts have been broken so many times over the years, we just can’t get our hopes up too high’.

I think I feel the same🙈

I have decided (this might change) at the moment it will be Mercer who will be my Portillo moment. What he has said about an opponent is unforgivable.

We’re planning on watching the close of poll / turnout stuff till about 11 then going up to shower etc and come down in our pj’s and sit it out till prob 4 or 5. I’m trying to think of some sustaining snacks. Making sure to have nothing happening the next day.

A friend said she’ll sleep between 9 pm and 3 am then watch, I might try this approach but I do need a good night’s kip

Yes! Like llfl I am going on holiday on the 5th, but i won’t sleep so will definitely be up for at least part of the night.

I don’t want to miss my Portillo moment. Not sure who it will be but a joy when I recognise the moment.

maybee I am hoping that a Labour government will end the hate and division. Not immediately but slowly over time the sort of hate we’ve seen these past few years will dissolve snd we get back to something more civilised.

Everything crossed of course.

Absolutely, LizzieDrip!

Ladyleftfieldlover if the election goes your way, what a lovely start to your holiday

That referendum changed something about this country and the people in it

I agree MayBe. I think it drove a wedge through the middle of the country (well, 48-52) which still remains, even after all these years

I would love to stay up all night but we’re going on holiday on the 5th. However, in 2019, the exit polls at 10 pm, had the results pretty well perfectly. I was at a friend’s house and younger son texted me.

LizzieDrip

Yes, I’ll be up!

I daren’t go to bed because, on the night of the Brexit referendum, I said to my husband these famous, last words:

“I’m going to bed. No need to stay up all night for the results. The British people will never vote to leave the EU”🙈🙈🙈🙈🙈

I toddled off to bed … and we all know how that turned out! So, an all-nighter for me this time!

I’ll never forget that night. We were away for the weekend. I went for a walk at 10 which I think was when the polls closed. Got back to our B&B and put the tv on. The minute the result from Newcastle came through I knew we were in trouble and then the night turned into a waking nightmare. The nastiness leading up to the referendum and then the nastiness we experienced when we went on protests and marches afterwards will always stay with me. That referendum changed something about this country and the people in it .

I’m joining the All Night Long gang which I’ve done since March 1974 and not once have I been on the winning side! Proper kiss of death my vote….

Perhaps we should do a virtual sweepstake the day before, and the honour of Gransnet Queen of Politics (as opposed to Queen Bee, obviously) for the day should be awarded to whoever is nearest?

I’m wary of polls too but this time feels different.Won’t be long until we find out tho.
I will be working nights round early July but will find out what’s happened the next day.

Yes, I’ll be up!

I daren’t go to bed because, on the night of the Brexit referendum, I said to my husband these famous, last words:

“I’m going to bed. No need to stay up all night for the results. The British people will never vote to leave the EU”🙈🙈🙈🙈🙈

I toddled off to bed … and we all know how that turned out! So, an all-nighter for me this time!

Join the overnighters LizzieDrip, I’ll definitely be there too, I imagine quite a few will be burning the midnight oil!

WW I think it’s likely to do with the two things you suggest.

There’s apparently a large cohort of people who don’t want to admit to voting Tory (even in a poll) - they’re called ‘Shy Tory’ voters. They will vote Tory on the day. I think a similar thing happened with the Brexit referendum. Beforehand, in polls, people didn’t want to admit to voting Leave - but then they actually voted Leave!

I also think a lot of undecideds might have been Tory voters who feel they should vote differently but, on the day, will put their ❌ in the Tory box. I suppose these undecideds are currently skewing the opinion polls.

Listening to Alistair on TRIP, he seems to think along these lines too.

I’m always very wary of polls because people can just say anything they want - they don’t necessarily have to carry it out on the day! I know the modern polls are highly sophisticated … but they’re still just a projection aren’t they.

We’ll know on 5th July anyway🙈 Will you be doing an all-nighter WW?

LizzieDrip

It was great WW - thanks.

I’m with you and Alistair - I think the polls are wildly overstating the Labour lead.

Have you got a theory why they might be so wrong?

I do think it might have a lot to do with undecideds, and people who are not admitting to vote Tory.

But I don’t really know.

It was great WW - thanks.

I’m with you and Alistair - I think the polls are wildly overstating the Labour lead.

Sorry that wasn’t done well. Hope you can make sense of it.

Electoral calculus latest

Pred VotesPred Seats

CON19.9%76

LAB39.5%457

LIB 11.6%66

Reform17.8%3

Green6.0%2

SNP 3.5%22

PlaidC 0.7%4

No real change in polls.

I read that Alastair Campbell on CNBC has said that he thinks the polls showing a Tory wipeout are wrong. I agree.

I see Chris Skidmore a previous Tory minister has said he will vote labour.

Thanks for that - I can’t do links on this I-pad so it is useful to see other people putting them up.

Have you seen the Led by Donkeys Farage message in the sand? Strong stuff.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=cttZHofdWAk

Casdon

Iam64

I agree Casdon. I see a police officer has been arrested and another employee suspended today. It’s shameful to bet in this way

Even more candidates are involved by the look of it. The you know what is hitting the fan.
news.sky.com/story/general-election-2024-sunak-starmer-conservatives-labour-reform-davey-lib-dem-12593360

Thank you for that sky ref - its a live summary of the leaders as it happens and very interesting and will stand as a useful record afterwards.