Follow the Polls

Noooo! 😱

Just saying… it’s about time Mr Bercow got his peerage.

It’s a strange arrangement when you think about it. The speaker is elected as a constituency MP with no opposition from the major parties, they don’t stand in that seat.
After the election the secret ballot of all MPs is then held. If the speaker is not re-appointed, then he or she returns to their party benches, so potentially the most useless of speakers would then sit for 5 years as an MP. I’m not saying Lindsay Hoyle is useless, just that’s the process.

If Sir Lindsay Hoyle is re-elected as Speaker, I hope he sharpens up a bit and doesn't allow the worst loudmouths to dominate the way he often did in the last parliament.

Callistemon213

^Now to work out who won^ 😄😄
I'll get my abacus out

😄😄😄 I need a few cups of coffee a walk in the fresh air first.

Thanks for the leader information.

mamie thanks 😊

A new Speaker is elected whenever the previous Speaker has died or retires. He or she must also be re-elected after a general election.

SNP 9 and Reform 5 I think WWM.

Speakers and general elections
Speakers still stand in general elections. They are generally unopposed by the major political parties, who will not field a candidate in the Speaker's constituency - this includes the original party they were a member of. During a general election, Speakers do not campaign on any political issues but simply stand as 'the Speaker seeking re-election'.

www.parliament.uk/business/commons/the-speaker/speaker-and-the-chamber/election-of-speaker/

Now to work out who won 😄😄
I'll get my abacus out

So actual seats

Labour 411

Tory. 121

Libs 71

SNP

Reform 9

Greens 4

Plaid 4

These are figures from the zHoC library. Interestingly they list the Speaker as 1. Does anyone know if his seat gets voted on. Well it must do, I suppose, but how does that work?

Now to work out who won😄😄

Oops, I think I was too late - but the exit poll hasn’t been announced yet.

Bookmarking to check up....

My predictions:
Labour - 400
Tory - 100
LibDems - 50
Reform - 3
Greens - 3

The rest will be taken by independents, SNP etc.

Thanks for the thread, Whitewavemark2. It has been fun, not that it has moved in any direction really!
Have a good holiday!

PS Sorry, I can't do Maths, I barely understand the scores at SW19.

I couldn't even begin to work out figures for the sweepstake and it's too late to try, now☹️

But may the best Gran win🤣

I am torn between what I would really like to see and what I think is likely.

I think that there are still a lot of "shy Tories" around.

There are also baked-in party loyalists like the person I spoke to yesterday who was singing the praises of our wonderful LibDem MP who had so impressed her with her response to flooding and various other local issues, but then told me she couldn't possibly vote for her. In spite of the fact that she thought our previous Tory MP was appalling (drugs, sex and dodgy Russian money), she will always vote Conservative.

So it is hard to say how many Conservatives will ever actually vote for another party. On the other hand I know a former Conservative councillor who says he will vote Reform. I also think some traditional Tory voters will stay at home.

What I would like to see is Ed Davey as the Leader of the Opposition with 80 seats and Conservatives with 70. However I realise this could probably only happen if Reform got about 15 seats, and I would rather they got none.

Apart from anything else I think PMQs would be much improved by pitting Davey against Starmer, rather than a tedious repeat of the Sunak v Starmer slanging match which we've seen enough of.

What I expect to happen is Conservatives will get about 150 seats and the LibDems about 50.

I hope I'm wrong.

Righto, here’s my vote:

Labour 393
Tory 132
LD 75
Reform 3
Green 2
SNP 33
DUP 7
Others 5

Id love to see your predicted total seats for all the parties varian, your perspective is helpful.

What do you think re Reform, Varian? I'm assuming that their vote-splitting worth won't be up to much in the end.

Live in hope.

It is interesting that most of you put the total Reform seats very low.

My Labour candidate has just knocked on the door to say “hello” and thank you for voting.

Nice chap.

Cassandra here, wailing along the seashore. I fear that the Tories will do far better than predicted, making the gap between them and Labour closer than predicted, and my LD figure rather low:
Labour 365
Cons 210
Lib Dem 40
SNP 10
DUP 7
SF 7
Other NI 3
Plaid 3
Green 3
Reform. 2

I’m a bit more pessimistic for Labour.
Labour 384 seats
Tories 151
Lib Dem 76
SNP 14
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 2
Reform 2
N Irish nationalist parties 9
N Irish unionist parties 9

I think you've been about optimistic about the Greens Oreo, but I guess we'll know this time tomorrow.