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Reform/Farage - economic policies don’t add up.

(297 Posts)
Wyllow3 Tue 18-Jun-24 13:50:18

The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank has published its assessment of Reform UK's tax and spending plans and it says they “don't add up”. And they are not just relatively unrealistic, it says. It says the costings are out “by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year

details:

Reform UK proposes tax cuts that it estimates would cost nearly £90bn per year, and spending increases of £50bn per year.

It claims that it would pay for these through £150bn per year of reductions in other spending, covering public services, debt interest and working-age benefits.

This would represent a big cut to the size of the state. Regardless of the pros and cons of shrinking the state, or of any of their specific measures, the package as a whole is problematic.

Spending reductions would save less than stated,

and the tax cuts would cost more than stated, by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year.

Meanwhile the spending increases would cost more than stated if they are to achieve their objectives …

Even with the extremely optimistic assumptions about how much economic growth would increase, the sums in this manifesto do not add up. Whilst Reform’s manifesto gives a clear sense of priority, a government could only implement parts of this package, or would need to find other ways to help pay for it, which would mean losers not specified.

MayBee70 Sun 23-Jun-24 21:18:32

BevSec

I most certainly do support Reform, the point is that Reform have four points, not just one or two. Taken together, not just one or two, I do certainly believe it will be enough.

I do agree Monica that it would be inhumane not to help out. Its just that we pay too much in tax and then have to wait ever longer for our state pensions (did you get yours at 60 because I certainly didnt and still havent). You must know the state of our country, we need to look after our own surely?

Do you not understand the repercussions for all of us if we leave the ECHR?

BevSec Sun 23-Jun-24 21:16:13

I most certainly do support Reform, the point is that Reform have four points, not just one or two. Taken together, not just one or two, I do certainly believe it will be enough.

I do agree Monica that it would be inhumane not to help out. Its just that we pay too much in tax and then have to wait ever longer for our state pensions (did you get yours at 60 because I certainly didnt and still havent). You must know the state of our country, we need to look after our own surely?

M0nica Sun 23-Jun-24 20:50:47

Yes, the Britissh goernment will pay - just as the Australian government is paying Papua-New Guinea and Nairu and also running the inhumane and degrading camps that many immigrants are kept in.

Do you think that we should treat immigrants here with the same inhumanity?

Casdon Sun 23-Jun-24 20:40:02

Whitewavemark2

Farage on twitter

“The Daily Mail is collaborating with the Kremlin to protect the dying Conservative Party.”

Dear oh dear.

Do you think that means he thinks that the media is turning against His Faragesty?

Germanshepherdsmum Sun 23-Jun-24 20:38:03

👍🏻

Wyllow3 Sun 23-Jun-24 20:36:43

BevSec

In reply, why would the Rwanda scheme not be effective in itself? It has been shown apparently that Australia has used a similar scheme that has been highly effective in Stopping illegal immigration. . As none of the immigrants want to go there why would it not be 100% effective?

BevSec you know very well that is not answering the question.

You clearly said you supported Farage for the 4 point policy which basically rests on turning back the boats. And does not allude to Rwanda at all.

Stop dodging the question.

Whitewavemark2 Sun 23-Jun-24 20:23:15

Farage on twitter

“The Daily Mail is collaborating with the Kremlin to protect the dying Conservative Party.”

Dear oh dear.

BevSec Sun 23-Jun-24 19:33:31

Thank you Monica for the link. I assume the British taxpayer is footing the bill for the generous support package.

Germanshepherdsmum Sun 23-Jun-24 19:32:45

BevSec, you have pointed to Reform’s four point plan but have failed to explain how any of those points other than leaving the ECHR (not enough by itself) can stop illegal immigration. Do you have any further explanation or do you accept that Reform’s plan to stop the boats is totally unworkable? Do you still support Reform?

David49 Sun 23-Jun-24 19:24:23

Farage will do and say anthing to get attention, neither he nor Reform are going to have significant influence, ignore him.

M0nica Sun 23-Jun-24 19:19:01

Bevsed here is a link to an extensive and intensive Factcheck on the Australian system and British plans in Rwanda.
www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-did-australian-offshore-asylum-system-reduce-boat-crossings

I can not begin to precis it. All I can say it shows the two situations, and solutions are very different and cannot be compared. Even the reasons for the reduction of illegal immigrants to Australia may well have causes other than their, actually, not very similar screen.

BevSec Sun 23-Jun-24 19:02:56

In reply, why would the Rwanda scheme not be effective in itself? It has been shown apparently that Australia has used a similar scheme that has been highly effective in Stopping illegal immigration. . As none of the immigrants want to go there why would it not be 100% effective?

petra Sun 23-Jun-24 18:33:32

Wyllow3

BevSec,
How will Reform plans to turn migrants back be carried out?

I would imagine that the plan is the same one that Priti Patel put forward: turning the boats back.
But Farage knows that he would be going against The International Convention For The Safety Of Life At Sea.
He is also aware that Italy, Greece and Australia did/ still doing this and have had no sanctions against them.

Whitewavemark2 Sun 23-Jun-24 18:26:40

👀

Wyllow3 Sun 23-Jun-24 17:55:22

BevSec,
How will Reform plans to turn migrants back be carried out?

petra Sun 23-Jun-24 17:52:53

M0nica

Germanshepherdsmum

The sort of people who will vote for Reform have no idea. Farage just tells them what they want to hear. By and large they are thick racist bigots.

I think a lot of people cannot tell the difference between legal and illegal immigration and think that the majority of immigrants are here illegally, even though they can see them working in the economy and in the NHS.

They are unaware what a very small proportion illegal immigrants are of all immigrants. A lot of them live in areas where there are few immigrants. There are still areas of the country, and I suspect Clacton is one of them, where they see relatively few non-British faces or hear non-british names.

Many of these areas are areas with high levels unemployment and areas of deprivation, so that even though there are relatively few immigrants around they are perceived as being ubiquitous and 'taking our jobs'.

These people are not bigots, nor inherently are they racist, but they aare struggling in every way, knowing that their area are falling behind other regions economically, they struggle to work out why they are being short changed and immigration, whether from Syria or Slovakia, semms, superficially to be the reason.

Michel Bernier said much the same thing in his memoir.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13559589/Emmanuel-Macron-driven-France-brink-Frexit-ignoring-warnings-migration-EUs-chief-Brexit-negotiator-Michel-Barnier-claims.html

Germanshepherdsmum Sun 23-Jun-24 17:33:10

BevSec, the Rwanda scheme will not be enough. Please tell me how Farage’s plan to return people to France will work. Or do you agree that it’s pie in the sky and nobody in their right mind would vote for Reform?

Casdon Sun 23-Jun-24 17:32:10

A Europe-wide consensus approach to migration, working with the countries where people are migrating from is the only approach that will work long term BevSec. Anything else is just like the Dutch boy with his finger in the dam.

In the short term, the most feasible approach is to reduce legal migration by a range of measures to fill vacancies from within the UK and encourage our own skilled workers to return.

Not that anybody cares what I think!

BevSec Sun 23-Jun-24 16:48:59

Casdon, thank you for sharing the link. What would you suggest?

Casdon Sun 23-Jun-24 16:33:45

Why do intelligent people not seek out evidence, I don’t get it.
theconversation.com/is-the-rwanda-plan-acting-as-a-deterrent-heres-what-the-evidence-says-about-this-approach-228836#:~:text=Rishi%20Sunak%20has%20claimed%20that,journeys%20across%20the%20English%20Channel.

BevSec Sun 23-Jun-24 16:28:15

I thunk it would be enough. Apparently some illegals are trying to escape to southern Ireland because of the scheme which is causing problems there now.

Germanshepherdsmum Sun 23-Jun-24 16:25:43

The Rwanda plan seems to be a deterrent but on its own it will not be enough. So, how would returning people to France in boats, as Farage proposes, work in practice?

BevSec Sun 23-Jun-24 16:21:04

If the Rwanda flight plan was put into action returning the boats to France would not be needed as I feel this would be a deterrent to attempting the channel crossing. Apparently there was a tv programme which I missed but was watched by one of my teacher friends I mentioned. There is a whole industry making money out of filling small boats with migrants, similar to drug cartels. This cannot be allowed to go on! I fully agree this country should not go on paying France and I am glad we think similarly on some of these issues.

Germanshepherdsmum Sun 23-Jun-24 16:13:33

Germanshepherdsmum

How on earth is it workable? English boats sailing into French territorial waters and offloading people by force - they won’t go willingly - on French beaches?

This is what I posted earlier today BevSec. Perhaps you haven’t read it. Perhaps you could give your comments.

I have already said that I support withdrawal from the jurisdiction of the European Court and that I support the Rwanda plan. I have also said that other countries are making similar arrangements. However there are issues which, as I have said, I consider unworkable. I would like to know from a Reform supporter, which I assume you to do, how those flaws which I perceive would be overcome (without resorting to talking to France and paying them money, which we’ve been doing for years with little success),

BevSec Sun 23-Jun-24 16:06:21

Yes Nicenanny3 its about the numbers, you are quite right.

GSM yes I have a degree and capacity for independent thought! I am not sure in what way you think the four point plan will not work? If Reform were ever in power the determination to stop illegal immigration would be there which this government does not seem to have. The Rwanda scheme is a deterrent and legal challenges need to be stopped by human rights lawyers to enable flights to take off. Its a gravy train for the lawyers involved! Even the Archbishop of Canterbury has withdrawn his opposition to the flights. That is the way forward and apparently even countries in the EU are starting to explore these avenues. Australia has successfully done this. I hope that answers your question to some extent.