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Reform/Farage - economic policies don’t add up.

(296 Posts)
Wyllow3 Tue 18-Jun-24 13:50:18

The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank has published its assessment of Reform UK's tax and spending plans and it says they “don't add up”. And they are not just relatively unrealistic, it says. It says the costings are out “by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year

details:

Reform UK proposes tax cuts that it estimates would cost nearly £90bn per year, and spending increases of £50bn per year.

It claims that it would pay for these through £150bn per year of reductions in other spending, covering public services, debt interest and working-age benefits.

This would represent a big cut to the size of the state. Regardless of the pros and cons of shrinking the state, or of any of their specific measures, the package as a whole is problematic.

Spending reductions would save less than stated,

and the tax cuts would cost more than stated, by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year.

Meanwhile the spending increases would cost more than stated if they are to achieve their objectives …

Even with the extremely optimistic assumptions about how much economic growth would increase, the sums in this manifesto do not add up. Whilst Reform’s manifesto gives a clear sense of priority, a government could only implement parts of this package, or would need to find other ways to help pay for it, which would mean losers not specified.

Germanshepherdsmum Tue 18-Jun-24 14:18:30

They won’t be in government anyway.

Chestnut Tue 18-Jun-24 14:19:07

They don't need to add up. Reform are not going to win, they are just needed to provide a robust opposition.

It's Galloway and his cronies you need to be wary of. They are gathering together to form a new party.

Wyllow3 Tue 18-Jun-24 14:33:45

I think it matters what policies Reform put forward in terms of being at all realistic.

Just as Lib Dems, Greens etc are having to account for policies.

Cossy Tue 18-Jun-24 14:43:36

They can pretty much say and do what they like, they’ll never form a government. People must be pretty out of touch and a bit naive if they believe Reform UK’s policies make any kind of economic sense or add up in any way.

Wyllow3 Tue 18-Jun-24 14:56:15

The cuts in services that Reform envisage are mind boggling, I wish supporters would actually read them.

Casdon Tue 18-Jun-24 15:04:29

I think it is potentially significant because it gives the Tories a good opportunity to claw some votes back. It’s the first time Reform can be publicly exposed for what they are proposing, and a chance therefore to refute some of the lies in Farage’s rhetoric. If I were Sunak et al I would be firing on all cylinders to expose Reform.

winterwhite Tue 18-Jun-24 15:12:12

Good point Casdon.
And it’s certainly important that parties don’t announce policies that are out by ££ billions or even millions, because many voters are naive, and Farage is a master of silver-tongue talking.

Dinahmo Tue 18-Jun-24 15:21:37

According to Reform the PA will be increased to £20k and the higher rate tax will start at £70k.

this means:

no tax savings for people on benefits
a tax saving of up to £1486 to those earning £20k or less

for those earning £90k there will be a tax saving of £9432. At the moment they would pay tax of £23432

Other tax cutting:

20% tax relief on private health pensions

reducing stamp duty to 0% on houses costing under £750k and to 2% for those costing between £750k and £1.5 million. A reduction to 4% for houses costing over£1.5 million

Farage appeals to the poorer in our society who, when asked, come up with the usual cliches. And yet, all the above will benefit the more comfortably off and the wealthier.

He wants to halve the Civil Service. Anyone would think that the CS only operates out of Whitehall and does the govt's requests. However, the 5 largest departments are the MOD, MOJ, HMRC, DWP and Home Office. So where is he going to make cuts?

We know that people already have problems accessing benefits and tax payers have been hanging to phone lines to HMRC for many minutes, often over an hour. I myself have given up sometimes whilst using the agents' help lines which are supposed to make things easier and quicker.

Dinahmo Tue 18-Jun-24 15:26:35

I watched the interview of Farage on Good Morning Britain this morning (Susannah Reed and Ed Balls). He could not answer the questions on income tax and kept waffling on about percentages (but not quoting an actual figure). I thought at one point that he was going to walk off ( as did the 2 journos sitting in).

I suspect that any supporters watching him will be thinking the questioners were too hard on him.

Freya5 Tue 18-Jun-24 15:31:01

Chestnut

They don't need to add up. Reform are not going to win, they are just needed to provide a robust opposition.

It's Galloway and his cronies you need to be wary of. They are gathering together to form a new party.

Yes I agree. We are seemingly developing sectarian politics, a Hindu manifesto, a Muslim manifesto. Do other people migrate, bring families up and try and force their political views on the host population. We do not need foreign politics forming our election.
This will not be at all good for the UK.

Dinahmo Tue 18-Jun-24 15:31:29

Chestnut

They don't need to add up. Reform are not going to win, they are just needed to provide a robust opposition.

It's Galloway and his cronies you need to be wary of. They are gathering together to form a new party.

We've seen it all before. Remember the Social Democrats? They were a much better class of politician who didn't last that long in the scheme of things.

I'm not sure whether Reform supporters are even aware that it is a limited company, with Farage as the major shareholder. The company received £1.5 million after Farage said he would stand as an MP. What happens to it if he doesn't get in?

Rekarie Tue 18-Jun-24 15:36:04

The thing is, Farage knows that he won't be elected so can get away with saying anything

I remember Nick Clegg promising to end tuition fees. He knew he wouldn't/couldn't but again, had very little chance of winning so it didn't matter what he said. Of course, when he joined the coalition his promises disappeared.

But surely we don't totally expect everything in manifestos to be carried out.

I'm sure we'll hear from Starmer, once elected as PM, that sadly he'll have to go back on some of his promises due to the mess the Tories left behind.

So I'm not at all bothered what any of them say. Because I'm sure none of them will keep the promise.

Whitewavemark2 Tue 18-Jun-24 16:43:46

A lot of the language is straight out of the Trump playbook.

Perhaps Steve Bannon had a hand in it, they are besties after all.

M0nica Tue 18-Jun-24 17:59:51

Cossy

They can pretty much say and do what they like, they’ll never form a government. People must be pretty out of touch and a bit naive if they believe Reform UK’s policies make any kind of economic sense or add up in any way.

Farage has acknowledged this and said he set out the policies he did to show the direction of travel his company(it is a limited company, not a party) will follow and to set out the negotiating grounds for talking to the Conservatives, after their nevitabale defeat.

Wyllow3 Tue 18-Jun-24 18:19:23

Reading the Reform proposals I'm not clear which ones he would be able to "leverage" the Conservatives with to the right and be credible to the public in terms of the public purse. Cut taxes/raise allowances but give 17 billion more a year to the NHS?

Return migrants on boats to France? (no, "how")

avitorl Tue 18-Jun-24 18:19:57

Well now,that's a surprise!

zakouma66 Tue 18-Jun-24 18:28:36

Return migrants on boats to France? (no, "how")

Perhaps poke them into the sea to die, like Greece?

Casdon Tue 18-Jun-24 18:29:55

Can a limited company stand for parliament, that in itself is very strange? I genuinely don’t understand why the Tories aren’t fighting back tooth and nail and picking holes in everything Reform do.

foxie48 Tue 18-Jun-24 18:46:30

Casdon

Can a limited company stand for parliament, that in itself is very strange? I genuinely don’t understand why the Tories aren’t fighting back tooth and nail and picking holes in everything Reform do.

I suspect quite a few on the right wing of the party agree with Farage.

Wyllow3 Tue 18-Jun-24 18:54:28

Yes thats the view of many, it's just that I don't see which Reform policies the right want to adopt because the economics are so unrealistic. They'd push leaving the ECHR certainly. Farage's" process abroad" of immigrants is that so different from Rwanda?

Wyllow3 Tue 18-Jun-24 18:56:05

I think Farage sees the UK being "the UK PLC". 💁

M0nica Tue 18-Jun-24 20:27:50

Will Hutton efffectively dismantled the stupidity of UK plc in The Observer on Sunday. The article was so good I have cut it out to keep.

Wyllow3 Tue 18-Jun-24 21:08:06

Wish it was available. It's been striking me how turning a nation of peoples trying to find ways of best living together into a 'contract" is ultimately de-humanising.

Wyllow3 Tue 18-Jun-24 21:38:56

Sort of Orwellian "Newspeak"