Thousands stuck in Lebanon

So sad about it and the innocents involved in these war machines....the cost is high in human and economic terms, yes -where will it end unless there are peace negotiations?

edition.cnn.com/2024/10/04/economy/israel-economy-war-impact/index.html

growstuff

I don't think it's much to do with being Shia. As far as I know, Iraq is mainly Shia, but Iran and Iraq hate each other. Gaza certainly isn't Shia. The enemy for Iran is Israel, so Iran supports any conflict against Israel.

Iraq isn’t mainly Shi’ite, it is mainly Sunni with a Shi’ite population in the south, and Iran backed the Shi’ite in the South to defeat Saddam back when the west wanted Saddam out in the early 2000s because back in the 1980s there was the Iran/Iraq war which went on for many years. Oddly enough, or maybe not, the US backed Saddam to defeat Iran back then.
Seems the US will back any horse to defeat Iran.
Iran hasn’t historically had any reason to hate Israel but after 1979 saw it as a US pawn in the ME and after Israel entered into a conflict with Lebanon in the 1980s and
again in 2006 the Shi’ite population in southern Lebanon sought an association with Iran. And when Hamas was elected in Gaza, though they are not Shi’ite, again help from Iran was forthcoming. This was not the case with the PLO, nor is it the case with representation of Palestinians in the West Bank.
Iran hates Israel as an extension of the US, and basically has several massive axes to grind with he US going back to the days of the Shah who was a US puppet leader of Iran who terrorised the Iranian population every bit as much as the Ayatollahs who came after him. Back then there was one moderate and much loved Prime Minister who could have been the salvation of Iran, Mossadegh, who was overthrown by the CIA and British intelligence, in operation Ajax.
This then gave the Shah complete rule.
In 1979 the people had had enough and rose up against the Shah giving the Ayatollah a chance to take over. The rest is history.
It might surprise many to know that the majority of ordinary Iranians are not hardliners and the most pro European and pro US population in the ME, barring Israel.
Anyway that is a bit of background info if anyone finds it useful.

I don't think it's much to do with being Shia. As far as I know, Iraq is mainly Shia, but Iran and Iraq hate each other. Gaza certainly isn't Shia. The enemy for Iran is Israel, so Iran supports any conflict against Israel.

Babs03 I think there are a few differences in the example you described re IRA. If Iran had backed the IRA, do you think we would ever have reached a peace agreement?
What is in this for Iran and other Shia states? It feels as if the cauldron has gone beyond boiling point because so many different interests are stoking the conflict. There’s an obvious economic advantage to oil producing nations too.
I don’t think it’s as simple as sitting round a table anymore. I have a horrible feeling that escalation is going to happen and there’s nothing the West can do to stop it.
So far Israel has had the upper hand in a number of ways and I am wondering how far it will go in the next month. I am almost expecting an assassination attempt on the Iranian government. Although new people will just carry on as before so not the best idea?

Babs03

@petra if the IDF have blocked this route due to weapons coming in how hard is it for them to let refugees out but nobody back in??
If is blocked there are soldiers there right?
This isn’t rocket science.

It’s a very limited on the ground response from Israel at the moment.
They’re targeting Hezbollah more with missiles.It’s a difficult situation for Israel just as Gaza was when the terrorists hole up in medical centres and the like and have tunnels.
Well done Israel for wiping out the Hezbollah top brass.

petra

Babs03

@ronib highly hyperbolical rhetoric. Would expect nothing less
But back in the realms of reality Israeli forces have now blocked a major route for Lebanese civilians fleeing the bombing into Syria.
This does contravene international laws on the theatre of war inasmuch as civilians should be able to escape a war zone as safely as possible.

That route is shut because Hezbollah are using it to bring weapons in.

Some are conveniently ignoring this fact.

@petra if the IDF have blocked this route due to weapons coming in how hard is it for them to let refugees out but nobody back in??
If is blocked there are soldiers there right?
This isn’t rocket science.

ronib

October 7th? Position in international law?

I thought we were discussing a bunch of terrorists against a first world US and western government funded and armed democracy.
If you want to call Israel a terrorist state am sure a lot would agree with you, but is that your wish?
Nobody expected the IRA to obey international laws but it was incumbent upon the UK to do so which is why NI wasn’t subjected to a scorched earth policy and thousands weren’t killed in the first year.
This is not how a first world country fights terrorism, unless Nestanyahu wants to compete with Putin or Saddam on this.
In the beginning there was room for negotiation in getting the hostages back when a temporary ceasefire was called and both sides agreed to it, as I remember Qatar helped bring this about. After that there was a way to continue the ceasefire and get the rest of the hostages released as well as to enter into dialogue. But Qatar washed its hands of it when Israel refused to do anything other than get rid of Hamas.
At the Good Friday agreement the UK had to sit around a table with Sein Fein and at some point Israel with have to do the same with Hamas. But my gut says it is too late now and if Iran gets more involved so will western governments including our own, dragged into a bloody and protracted war with 50,000 already dead.
There is another way.
And it was Netanyahu who didn’t take it, even Biden and the US administration are exasperated with him.

Babs03

@ronib highly hyperbolical rhetoric. Would expect nothing less
But back in the realms of reality Israeli forces have now blocked a major route for Lebanese civilians fleeing the bombing into Syria.
This does contravene international laws on the theatre of war inasmuch as civilians should be able to escape a war zone as safely as possible.

That route is shut because Hezbollah are using it to bring weapons in.

October 7th? Position in international law?

ronib

Babs03 my best guess is that Israel had to block the escape route to Syria for obvious reasons - to stop Hamas and Hezbelloh from getting into Syria.
It is a great pity that civilians are yet again caught up in this slaughter.

Regardless of whether terrorists escape, and nothing and nobody can have control over that, civilians must be given as safe a passage as possible out of a war zone.
That is international law.
Sadly Gazans are stuck like rats in a rat run in Gaza with all exits blocked and no safe place to run.
In every conflict international laws will be broken and war crimes committed but in this present conflict it seems to be very much open season with no recognition of refugee camps, hospitals, schools or aid workers and journalists. Of course the forgive all mantra is that terrorists are in there. So one question, if a terrorist was holed up in an Israeli hospital or school would they bomb it with bunker bombs or use other means - that are available to a high tech fighting machine like the IDF - to remove said terrorists.
Honest question so if someone could answer it I would be grateful.

eggplantterrorists are interested in staying alive. They won’t just sit in Lebanon where they have a stronghold waiting to be destroyed. Of course terrorists will go to Syria. Of course it plays into the anti Israel narrative.
What has lived experience got to do with it?

Utter despair at the situation and the comments. Apart from those who actually have a link to the region, some lived experience and understanding.

Terrorists don't " get into" countries.

Babs03 my best guess is that Israel had to block the escape route to Syria for obvious reasons - to stop Hamas and Hezbelloh from getting into Syria.
It is a great pity that civilians are yet again caught up in this slaughter.

@ronib highly hyperbolical rhetoric. Would expect nothing less
But back in the realms of reality Israeli forces have now blocked a major route for Lebanese civilians fleeing the bombing into Syria.
This does contravene international laws on the theatre of war inasmuch as civilians should be able to escape a war zone as safely as possible.

Today Ayatollah Khamenei has spoken. Is anyone able to explain the mindset behind his statements for example
1. Hamas led 7 Oct attack was a legitimate act.
2. The US and its allies were preserving the security of Israel to make it an energy exporting gate from the region to the West.
3. Israel can’t seriously harm Hezbollah, Lebanese militant group or Hamas.
As reported in the Guardian.

Babs03 yes I am completely unaware and disingenuous. I am trying to find out more. You say that we have been here before in the 1980s and 2006. Okay - it doesn’t show signs of any progress for many years ahead.

ronib

I honestly didn’t mean to be inflammatory. I find this war very difficult to understand. In the circumstances you describe Babs03 it sounds as if Lebanon and Israel are both hostage to Hezbelloh. It all feels overwhelming tragic.

Easy to think this, and though Lebanese people don’t particularly like or agree with Hezbollah, Israel made incursions into Israel and killed innocent Lebanese people long before Hezbollah existed in the south.
In fact Hezbollah came about in response to Israeli incursions into Lebanon.
Many are either unaware or being disingenuous on this thread, the simple fact is that we have been here before, in the 1980s, and again in 2006.

ronib

I honestly didn’t mean to be inflammatory. I find this war very difficult to understand. In the circumstances you describe Babs03 it sounds as if Lebanon and Israel are both hostage to Hezbelloh. It all feels overwhelming tragic.

Yes, in some ways they are. Hezbollah currently holds the majority number of seats in the Lebanese parliament, but that's not the same as the state of Lebanon. Approximately a third of Lebanese are Christians.

ronib

*valdavi*. But I honestly thought that Lebanon and Iran were working together against Israel. For example, the extensive network of tunnels in Southern Lebanon are seen as a direct threat to Israel. Maybe a better tactic would be to dismantle the tunnels and work on diplomacy with Israel?

Hezbollah is not the same as Lebanon.

I honestly didn’t mean to be inflammatory. I find this war very difficult to understand. In the circumstances you describe Babs03 it sounds as if Lebanon and Israel are both hostage to Hezbelloh. It all feels overwhelming tragic.

ronib

*valdavi*. But I honestly thought that Lebanon and Iran were working together against Israel. For example, the extensive network of tunnels in Southern Lebanon are seen as a direct threat to Israel. Maybe a better tactic would be to dismantle the tunnels and work on diplomacy with Israel?

Who is going to dismantle the tunnels and work on diplomacy with Israel?
Lebanon hasn’t had a semblance of a government for years, they have a caretaker government, and they are bankrupt, the Lebanese currency means nothing. The Lebanese people have been coping with electricity and water rationing for years. And yet they have taken in more Syrian refugees than any other country in the region. So I very much doubt that they could go into Hezbollah territory and get rid of any tunnels and certainly have no diplomatic influence with Israel, I mean who has??
Israel isn’t listening. Fingers in ears singing La La La.

tickingbird

OldFrill

tickingbird
Why would anybody from Israel or Lebanon destroy paperwork?*

No idea. Who said they would??
Today 08:38Coronation

No Old Frill that’s not what she said. She said that it’s possible that economic migrants may destroy their papers and claim to be fleeing Israel and Lebanon.

Glad you've cleared that up 😬

ronib

Casdon One thousand miles seems nothing for asylum seekers these days. We have a fair number coming from this distance I understand.

If the UK was bombed and you lost your home and possessions, would you choose to go to Algeria, or Hungary ronib, both about 1000 miles away? Perhaps you would, but I think you’ll find most people would like to be involved in the decision making before being moved to a country with a more oppressive regime than their own.

OldFrill

tickingbird
Why would anybody from Israel or Lebanon destroy paperwork?*

No idea. Who said they would??
Today 08:38Coronation

No Old Frill that’s not what she said. She said that it’s possible that economic migrants may destroy their papers and claim to be fleeing Israel and Lebanon.