The US Election.

The first results are in with Dixville Hatch in New Hampshire polling as follows -

6 voters

3 for Harris
3 for Trump

(I think that's a 100% turnout)

A microcosm of the US?

Correction: piece in The (silly auto correct)

After lunch I read an interesting new pieces in the Economist.

"Kamala Harris moves ahead—just—in our final election forecast.

IN THE FINAL update of The Economist’s statistical forecast of America’s presidential election, Kamala Harris’s chances of winning rose from 50% to 56%. Her newfound lead is small enough that it can barely be called a lead at all, and it would be no surprise if Donald Trump wins by a decisive margin. But Ms Harris is widely seen to have had a stronger week to end the campaign than Mr Trump did, and the last batch of polls to enter our model bears that out.

Of the 67 surveys released yesterday, 44 gave Ms Harris better numbers than our forecast previously expected. The data looked particularly rosy for her in the Rust Belt. She led by an average of one percentage point in six polls of Pennsylvania, the most likely decisive state, and by the same amount in five surveys of Wisconsin. In Michigan, her strongest swing state, five polls put her up by two points on average.

On the surface, surveys of the Sun Belt swing states looked less impressive for the vice-president, showing her trailing by one to two points on average in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. However, these results were better for Ms Harris than were earlier polls of these states by the same firms. In particular, AtlasIntel, whose surveys have tended to inflate Mr Trump’s margins by 2.4 percentage points, published 13 polls yesterday with results that were much closer to the consensus than its norm.

After accounting for such “house effects”, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina (but not Nevada) showed the same pattern as the northern swing states: Ms Harris’s margins in these final polls exceeded our model’s prior estimates by about one percentage point in all six. If these surveys had entered our forecast a month ago, her win probability would have risen only modestly. But because there is no time left before the election, our model reacts sharply to new data, lest it miss “late movement” like Mr Trump’s surge in November 2016.

The other factor that pushed our forecast towards Ms Harris today was a striking poll published by students and faculty at Dartmouth College. It gave the Democratic nominee a whopping 28-percentage-point lead in New Hampshire, dwarfing the five-point margin that our model previously expected in the state. An earlier survey by the same team found a 21-point lead for Ms Harris, and our forecast’s house-effects adjustment counteracts some of this apparent bias, shifting the results by nine points towards Mr Trump. Even a hefty nine points, however, may not be sufficient to compensate for such an implausibly pro-Democrat sample.

New Hampshire has almost no chance to decide the election. However, our forecast pools information across states, meaning that the Dartmouth survey also improves our predictions for Ms Harris by a tiny amount in swing states. Models like ours can try to account for dubious polls, but they are ultimately only as good as the data they ingest."

Wyllow3

Take their hatred with them on a long trip...

I understand that there are some interesting black holes which need further exploration

Take their hatred with them on a long trip...

Perhaps Musk will develop a new spacecraft and he and Trump could zoom off in it to explore the Kuiper Belt.

Allsorts

Trump is just nuts. I wonder if he has dementia or a personality disorder, either way he is not right.

I think he is a narcissist with dementia and needs to be kept in a dark room on heavy duty meds for the sake of all of us.
Musk too. Both very odd and dangerous individuals who shouldn't be allowed to drive a car let alone run the US.

I’m not looking forward to that fat manicured finger on the nuclear button once again, I mean Trump in case you hadn’t guessed.

both allsorts

Trump is just nuts. I wonder if he has dementia or a personality disorder, either way he is not right.

Thank you for that!

See the difference in tone between Harris and Trump during their last day on the trail

edition.cnn.com/2024/11/05/politics/video/campaign-trail-last-day-trump-harris-digvid

Do watch this short CNN video - the tone is so different - pure hatred versus positivity.

This is the actual Fire and Fury Trump/Epstein podcast spoken about earlier:

omny.fm/shows/fire-and-fury-the-podcast/episode-22-jeffrey-epstein-and-donald-trump

Ora pro nobis...

A report by about 230 medical professionals stated that, among other disturbing diagnoses, Trump is a malignant narcissist and unfit to be president.

He denigrates practically all of the American people and uses fear to motivate magas to vote for him. He is manic and projects his deficiencies onto other people.

There are Republicans who cannot, in all conscience, vote for him and are casting votes for Harris. He and Vance have alienated many women and hopefully the early turnout means they have voted for Harris and Walz.

Wyllow3

I'v watched several speeches where she speaks clearly, appropriately and with no autocue - you clearly haven't seen them. Look at her in the one off debate with Trump, for starters.

If that's all you can name as her "lies", compared with Trump's huge list of lies at every point, its clear who is more honest!

Trump is bitter, threatening, divisive, greatly offensive, and although Harris will criticise her opponent, she doesn't use hate language. She is a light to Trump's darkness.

Trump is bitter, threatening, divisive, greatly offensive, and although Harris will criticise her opponent, she doesn't use hate language. She is a light to Trump's darkness.

In the vein of "greatly offensive" - some of the merchandise on offer at one particular Trump rally (there may have been others) viewed by a journalist from Euronews was tastefully emblazoned with the motif "Trump not Tramp" and "MAGA, bitch".

Wyllow3

Maybe that quote was intended to be tongue in cheek, Dickens, as it cant be serious. "Some Analysts" ?

It's all a bit Mad Hatter's Tea Party isn't it?!

Macadia

Three states in theUS have activated the National Guard soldiers as back ups to the police in case of civil unrest tomorrow. Something about burning ballot boxes. Why don't they have those boxes in a building I wonder.

The boxes were in states that vote Democrat - Oregon and Washington (not DC). Checking last election - Oregon was 56% Biden, 40% Trump. Washington was 58% Biden, 38% Trump.

Those few votes destroyed in boxes are irrelevant - just a scare tactic. I'd imagine Americans are ready for the election to be over.

Maybe that quote was intended to be tongue in cheek, Dickens, as it cant be serious. "Some Analysts" ?

JenniferEccle

Meanwhile, some analysts are saying the world will be a safer place with Donald Trump as President as his unpredictability makes dangerous, volatile world leaders too nervous to act.

Dangerous and volatile people are also unpredictable.

So we have a safer world dominated by dangerous, volatile, and unpredictable leaders.

What could possibly go wrong...

I'v watched several speeches where she speaks clearly, appropriately and with no autocue - you clearly haven't seen them. Look at her in the one off debate with Trump, for starters.

If that's all you can name as her "lies", compared with Trump's huge list of lies at every point, its clear who is more honest!

Trump is bitter, threatening, divisive, greatly offensive, and although Harris will criticise her opponent, she doesn't use hate language. She is a light to Trump's darkness.

Mt61

When I say KH is just as nuts as DT, she can’t string a sentence together if the autocue doesn’t work.
She tells lies- one minute she’s black, next minute she’s Asian- which one is it?
Lied about Bidens health- when he clearly has some type of dementia.
A zoo to me, means something that is chaotic!

She doesn't lie. That was, again, Trump, so if you believe a word he says 🤔

Reuters Fact Check:
Contrary to Trump statements, however, Harris has long publicly identified as both Black and South Asian American.
Kamala Harris was born to an Indian mother and a Black Jamaican father, both immigrants to the United States. The U.S. Census includes people of Jamaican heritage among racial groups considered to be Black.
Her White House biography, opens new tab says she is “the first woman, the first Black American, and the first South Asian American” to be elected Vice President.

😂

Kamala Harris is a former prosecutor and District Attorney.
I think she can string a sentence together coherently.

It's Trump whose head is in a muddle.

When I say KH is just as nuts as DT, she can’t string a sentence together if the autocue doesn’t work.
She tells lies- one minute she’s black, next minute she’s Asian- which one is it?
Lied about Bidens health- when he clearly has some type of dementia.
A zoo to me, means something that is chaotic!

Mt61

Grandmabatty

I would hope, Freya that your post was tongue in cheek, because the reality of Trump as president again is so scary. The man is nuts

There are both nuts- welcome to the zoo, that is American politics for you

In what way is Kamala Harris as ‘nuts’ as Trump?

Calling America a zoo ?//

imaround thank you for the information.

Russian agent time:
edition.cnn.com/2024/11/04/politics/fake-georgia-voting-video-russian-disinformation/index.html