President Assad

Not assuming is indeed best.

Including "worst scenario" assumptions about Jolani.

Wyllow3 Netanyahu strikes me as an able and capable leader. The new Syrian regime is very much an unknown entity. Surely wait and see works best in this situation?

Radio 4 and 5 had good reporting and analysis today. There were interesting interviews with Syrians in the uk who told disturbing histories of their torture and ill treatment by Assad’s military. Also interviews with academics well versed in the complicated history.
I felt more slightly hopeful that the various factions may collaborate rather than the Islamists taking over

petal53

^Netanyahu is another dictator ^

Netanyahu is absolutely nothing like Assad. He is not a dictator. Israelis live in a democracy.

Well said

It has to make you wonder...

ronib

Exactly why should Netanyahu assume that the Golan Heights will be safe territory in the hands of the new Syrian regime?

Why should he assume Syria will try to take the Golan Heights back?

valdavi

If they do half as well working together in government as they did working together to depose Assad, they'll be OK.
They got rid of the government, in a country of 185000 sq km with less loss of life, destruction and displacement than it's talen Israel to find 200 hostages in a country of 360 sq km.

Great post. Maybe they don't want to find them?

Netanyahu is another dictator

Netanyahu is absolutely nothing like Assad. He is not a dictator. Israelis live in a democracy.

foxie48

I've just read a sickening account of the torturing of prisoners by the Assad regime, totally horrific I find it hard to believe that anyone could behave like that, but they did. No wonder millions of Syrians fled their country in search of safety and a new life. Will Syrians have a better future ahead of them? None of us knows, we can only hope that the various factions find a way to work together for the benefit of the Syrian people.

Where are the torturers now? Mingling in, I suppose. It's terrifying.

NanKate

Assad is now staying in Russia with his pal Putin. What a pair !

As he has a $2billion property portfolio in Russia he’s probably not in a B&B.

Assad is now staying in Russia with his pal Putin. What a pair !

Exactly why should Netanyahu assume that the Golan Heights will be safe territory in the hands of the new Syrian regime?

There should be no negotiations with Israel until Golan heights are handed over to Syria. Netanyahu is another dictator who needs telling. Amnesty International has done an excellent report into the IDF genocide.

It is quite common for oppositions to a regime to hold together for a common cause of defeating the incumbent government/dictator, only to fall apart and start fighting like cats in a sack once they succeed. That is what happened in Libya, and is the problem behind the dreadful famine in Sudan.

If they do half as well working together in government as they did working together to depose Assad, they'll be OK.
They got rid of the government, in a country of 185000 sq km with less loss of life, destruction and displacement than it's talen Israel to find 200 hostages in a country of 360 sq km.

I've just read a sickening account of the torturing of prisoners by the Assad regime, totally horrific I find it hard to believe that anyone could behave like that, but they did. No wonder millions of Syrians fled their country in search of safety and a new life. Will Syrians have a better future ahead of them? None of us knows, we can only hope that the various factions find a way to work together for the benefit of the Syrian people.

In Iraq though, US and UK decided to topple Saddam who was a strong leader.
It's kind of the opposite here, as the only way Assad has been able to stay in power for the last 5 years is with heavy Russian intervention on behalf of his government.
One group may "have links with" the Taliban, but if their main objective is to rebuild & bring peace to Syria, if they have strong national feelings, good luck to them.

Macadia

What a great time for Syria
We haven't seen such a great thing since 1939

We have no idea what sort of government Syria will have now. The new government is currently lead by an ex-AlQuada supporter and his group has links with the Taliban.

Currently the similarities between Syria and Libya, after it overthrew Gaddafi are all too close - and look what a basket case that counry is now. warring factions, no secure government.

Assad has gone. That we can say, we know nothing about what will follow. We may find only too soon that all the empty prisons, and torture centres in Syria are being refilled by opponents of the new regime.

Remember also Iraq. We overthrew Saddam Hussein. Is what Iraq have gone through since with Islamic State extremists and what happened to the Yadizis, women raped and spld into sexual slavery, a price worth paying to have the current corrupt government?

If the rebels start fighting each other in a power struggle there could be a lot more bloodshed yet

Israel has offered a ceasefire we do not know whether anyone has agreed yet, Israel will hit back hard if they are attacked from Syria

Reference to FT (there was no paywall when I opened this page)

www.ft.com/content/fd08cc4c-6e37-440a-acbb-303615099bea

Basically many countries are looking to see what HTS/Jolani actually do, whether it's possible to draw together the many groups. It notes for example:

"The German foreign ministry said Berlin’s stance towards HTS would be determined by the way the group treated minorities, adding that it would be “judged by its actions”.

“HTS has, in recent months and years, tried to distance itself from its jihadist origins and to build up civilian structures,” said ministry spokesman Sebastian Fischer. “The way it deals with civilians and especially with minorities in the areas it now controls will demonstrate whether these efforts can be taken seriously.” The UK has said similar.

The international community will have to continue to be involved in Syria, It was noted in posts above the UK giving aid for the 400.000 refugees from the Lebanon and

"Syria is blighted by a collapsed economy, with millions of people displaced from their homes and dependent on humanitarian assistance". It has to rely on relationships with the international community.

As an aside, it is heartening to see how many women out on the streets. Away from the international discussions, people in Damascus are currently searching the tunnels of Assad's horrific jails to try and find and free family members. Here's a video worth watching as women are released

www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cy53k73159do

Macadia

What a great time for Syria
We haven't seen such a great thing since 1939

Do you mean 1945?

Even so, liberation for some, the start of a different type of repressive regime for others.

Terrorist’ label of Syria’s new rulers will need to be reconsidered, says UN envoy

Geir Pedersen warns there is ‘no way to exclude’ Islamist group that led offensive against Assad regime"

Financial Times today

It very much depends what they do, doesn't it?

petal53

What was great about 1939?

Hitler invaded Poland and we then entered the Second World War.
Millions across Europe were killed, soldiers, civilians, Jews, Gypsies.
Cities were levelled and burnt to the ground.
1939 was the beginning of complete hell.
If 1945 had been quoted, then I agree, a better future for the whole of Europe.

Yes, I thought the same.

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali, who remained in Syria despite the rebels’ advance, said his government was ready to “extend its hand” to the rebels and work together to set up a transitional government.

The rebels were led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group (HTS), an offshoot of al Qaeda. The U.S. and U.N. have both classified HTS as a terrorist group, meaning it’s unlikely that they’ll fully support an HTS-backed government. As Assad fled the country, the U.S. conducted airstrikes on 75 ISIS-affiliated targets in Syria, while Israel seized multiple villages in the country’s southwest. Israel has already illegally annexed the Golan Heights in that area, but Netanyahu claims his country needs a “buffer zone” between its previously occupied territory and whatever group comes into power in Syria.

I'm hoping that Israel involvement this morning on "strategic weapons systems only" remains limited as I don't think more would be helpful for internal Syrian politics.

Meanwhile yesterday "on Sunday, in what appeared to be coordinated statements, Syria’s prime minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said that he was at his home and promised to cooperate with “any leadership chosen by the Syrian people”, while rebel leaders said that public institutions remained under the supervision of the “former prime minister”. Jolani, meanwhile, said that his fighters should not harm “those who drop their weapons” and assured women and Christians that he does not intend to impose strict Islamic law."

in timeline www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/09/syria-bashar-al-assad-asylum-russia-live-updates-blog?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with%3Ablock-675694478f0896ed0c237ba9#block-675694478f0896ed0c237ba9

I realise there are all kinds of problems in maintaining this but feel there are alternative POV's to assuming "worst outcomes"

I also cant see many refugees returning until the future is clearer, although some families are returning from Turkey.