Want to understand what Trump is doing?

Casdon

You’ve lost me ronib. You still need wheat if you make bread at home? If the price rises it will affect flour too.

Perhaps bread flour comes from wheat grown in middle America? I don't imagine that 00 flour is required by all home bakers.

The point is that wheat doesn’t need to be imported so won’t have 25 percent tariff? Wheat grows in America surely? Definitely in Ukraine so wonder what manoeuvres are going on there?

Casdon

You’ve lost me ronib. You still need wheat if you make bread at home? If the price rises it will affect flour too.

I resisted😄😄

You’ve lost me ronib. You still need wheat if you make bread at home? If the price rises it will affect flour too.

Maybe invest in an electric home breadmaker? Simple enough to use and the smell is great. Can be fattening though.

Thats what pundits are saying in the USA:

"But Trump’s tariffs pose a big risk: They could backfire, lifting already-high consumer prices at the grocery store, rocking the shaky stock market or killing jobs in a full-blown trade war.

“This may be the biggest own-goal yet,” Mary Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told CNN in a phone interview. “This is a huge gamble. It’s a recipe for slowing down the economy and increasing inflation.”

The Wall Street Journal went a step further, publishing a scathing op-ed on Saturday titled: “The Dumbest Trade War in History.”

edition.cnn.com/2025/02/02/business/trump-economy-tariff-mexico-canada-china/index.html

Liz Truss has endorsed Donald Trump to win this year's US presidential election, saying the "world was safer" when he was in the White House.
BBC

Remind me - how long did Truss last as PM here?

Not only that Allira but Canada and Mexico export two thirds of bread imports to USA. So a 25 percent price increase on bread ? Join the dots Trump - is this what you want?

ronib

I have just discovered that the bread market is worth £9 billion in imports to USA. How surprising.

Isn't it! I was astonished when I found that fact.

I wondered what happened to the wheat grown in the Wheat Belt. Some is exported, of course, but surely the USA grows enough to be able to make its own bread?

I have just discovered that the bread market is worth £9 billion in imports to USA. How surprising.

Looking up farm labour on google I can see there were shortages before the current clearouts (articles in 2021,2,3). any more restrictions on new workers will just push the price of food up further , no wonder they import food.

In terms of tariffs on Mexico, they are facing the fact that (google info)

"Fresh vegetables
Mexico and Canada are the main suppliers of fresh vegetables to the US. In 2022, Mexico supplied 51% of fresh fruit imports and Canada supplied 2%

ronib

Growing GDP might avoid recession? I see some quite neat argument for not importing goods and the idea might take off in the USA but not a chance in the UK. We have lost our manufacturing sector here.

So has the USA lost a lot of manufacturing industry, much lost in this century, that is why it is claimed so many voted for Trump.

I can see that manufacturing more home-produced goods has appeal, especially when a large country like the States could also produce the raw materials, but that would take many years to achieve and is also labour-intensive. The costs involved might be counterproductive as is getting rid of the immigrants they rely on for cheap labour.

Rosie51

I agree with Allira this You seem to be feeling uncomfortable with what you are hearing about your chosen one. Many individuals experience discomfort, known as cognitive dissonance, when confronted with conflicting information. is exactly the sort of paragraph I have seen reported by others who use AI, it's straight out of the AI playbook. I haven't had the impression GrannyGravy is a dedicated Trump supporter so it seems more than a little odd.
In political discussions a step back and trying to be more detached from personal bias (which we all have) is probably a sensible move.

Still laughing about my chosen one Rosie51 but actually, it's not funny at all .

What does Trump expect to achieve by imposing these tariffs?
He seems to be making knee-jerk decisions with no thought into the processes involved in reviving manufacturing industries, including processing food items and how long this would take.

I didn't realise that bread is on the list of major imports to the USA. Why is that? Perhaps Trmp thinks the American people should eat cake instead.

Followed up on that WWM2

www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/musk-doge-treasury-payment-system-rcna190222

"And Friday, the highest-ranking career official at the Treasury Department, David A. Lebryk, reportedly resigned after refusing to hand Musk’s lackeys the keys to the government’s entire payment system and the $6 trillion in payments the system processes annually.

The Treasury’s payment system is responsible for delivering trillions in Social Security payments, Medicare benefits and more to millions of Americans across the country

What could Musk do now?

First, accessing the Treasury’s payment system could be a path to freezing government funding, as the administration attempted earlier this week.

Musk could halt payments to programs like Medicaid, Meals on Wheels, Head Start and more, maneuvering around the courts. Musk has already directed his engineers to find ways to turn off the flow of money to programs he and President Donald Trump oppose. With the keys to the Treasury’s payment system, he can unilaterally cut off these funds right at the source

Musk could also get his hands on the “Do Not Pay” system that lists individuals or contractors the government has blacklisted, theoretically granting him control over whom the government does business with.

Government contracts have been central to Musk’s $400 billion net worth; his companies have signed billions of dollars’ worth of government contracts. He could easily place his rivals on the Do Not Pay list or turn the spigot back on for friends who have been blacklisted."

Musk now has the keys to the treasury.

Is that even legal?

foxie48 wasn’t Trump demanding to buy Greenland for its raw material? I don’t think Trump has thought his economic scheme through and it will be interesting to see how Musk handles it.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c627nx42xelo

Summary of tariffs and why Trump says he wants to impose them.

"The US president said the move was in response to his concerns about illegal immigration and drug trafficking - two of the main promises on which he was elected.

Trump posted on his Truth Social platform: "This was done through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) because of the major threat of illegal aliens and deadly drugs killing our Citizens, including fentanyl."

Trump has indicated he is ready to escalate the duties further if the countries retaliate."

As an. example, Trudeau's response

"We don't want to be here, we didn't ask for this," he said at a news conference late on Saturday.
"But we will not back down in standing up for Canadians."
His government will impose 25% tariffs on $155bn worth of American goods - $30bn will come into force on Tuesday and another $125bn in 21 days.

Targeted items include American beer, wine, bourbon, fruits and fruit juices, vegetables, perfumes, clothing and shoes, as well as household appliances, sporting goods and furniture. Lumber and plastics will also face levies.

Non-tariff measures being considered are related to critical minerals and procurement, although Trudeau did not offer more detail.
The Canadian prime minister pushed back on the suggestion the shared border posed a security concern, saying less than 1% of fentanyl going into the United States comes from Canada.

Canada is America's largest foreign supplier of crude oil. According to the most recent official trade figures, 61% of oil imported into the US between January and November last year came from Canada."

I think we’re saying much the same thing, foxie48 😊

Chocolatelovinggran

I suspect, ronib, that consumers may find "home produced goods " may prove more expensive than imported ones.

That was Thatcher’s declared rationale for destroying UK industry. That we could buy the same goods more cheaply from abroad. (I say ‘declared’ because underlying it was her intention to destroy the unions).

Trump’s actions are showing us that the global economy only works if everyone plays more or less by the same rules. Also, possibly, that it’s too late now to retreat into economic protectionism and isolation.

MAGA is, of course, isolationist but you don't have to be much of an economist to understand that in the modern world manufacturers buy components wherever in the world they are cheapest, so there's a constant flow in and out of the US even for the production of essentially American made products so the cost of living for the average American will rise even without retaliatory action. Tesla has already flagged up their concern over tariffs, it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Growing GDP might avoid recession? I see some quite neat argument for not importing goods and the idea might take off in the USA but not a chance in the UK. We have lost our manufacturing sector here.

I suspect, ronib, that consumers may find "home produced goods " may prove more expensive than imported ones.

The average Joe might prefer to buy goods at the most competitive prices so that will be home produced American ones. Or if unavailable at keen prices, not to buy at all depending on the items. Is a recession inevitable?

It feels to me that some of the actions he is taking come from a febrile mind rather than being preplanned, and he’s backtracked several times already on his decisions when the implications have become clear. He doesn’t seem to have regard for his core supporters in imposing tariffs, as it looks like it will inevitably force prices up in the USA, and some industries will be unable to operate. Clearly some share his vision of reducing imports and becoming more self sustaining, but there is a huge cost to the average Joe in achieving that. I wonder how long it will be before there’s a major backlash within the USA, and he is forced to concentrate on domestic unrest, whilst in the midst of a recession.

I did hear Trump on tv say that he wanted Americans to buy predominantly US goods and services presumably so that profits would stay in America and not go to other countries. The Golden Age is on the horizon?
I am sure Trump said this. What a neat idea - why don’t we try it out too? Err ….