But a Tory push into radical right terrain could make them unacceptable to otherwise winnable liberal professional voters, with the spectre of Farage boosting anti-Conservative local campaigns.
SilverBrook and the Guardian are spot on here about Badenoch's constituency, North West Essex. Badenoch is not very popular because she's hardly ever here and lied about moving to the area before she was selected. The constituency is wealthy and naturally Conservative. There has been a huge Conservative majority for decades. Badenoch had almost 60% of the vote in the previous election. Nevertheless, we haven't had a Conservative district council since 2019.
There is a hard core of UKIP/Reform voters, but that hasn't increased for years. There was a huge amount of tactical voting in the last election. The LibDems would probably have been the most likely party to replace the Conservatives. However, LibDem activists were asked to canvas in South Cambridgeshire and Chelmsford (both of which they won), so the anti-Conservative vote went to Labour.
I've lived in this constituency for most of the last 40 years and I really can't see that Reform would ever win. Of all the Essex districts, we were the most pro-EU in the referendum (it was nearly 50/50) and it's increasingly inhabited by biotech and scientific staff from Cambridge, who tend towards the LibDems and Labour. Badenoch has some idea that it's a farming community, probably because she really doesn't understand the area at all.
In the last election, the Labour candidate who ran her a close second was very young and inexperienced. The local Labour party isn't that strong or co-ordinated, but they still came very close. If they got their act together and especially if the Conservatives become any more right wing, I really can see a Labour win. If the Conservatives want to hang on here, they're going to have to become more "one nation Tory"/liberal.