Is the Conservatory Party now an irrelevance?

Mt61

Graph I saw this morning showed Labour as “others” Reform, conservative, Lib Dem’s 😳

Please post it Mt61.

Graph I saw this morning showed Labour as “others” Reform, conservative, Lib Dem’s 😳

lafergar

I look back at people like Cameron, Sunak, May and at the time I wasn't too impressed.

They are fantastic in comparison to what has emerged.

You are not alone!

David49

“When it comes to politics - I am not particularly 'misinformed' or even unintelligent, but I am woefully under informed - because I don't have the time to educate myself and read / learn, and - like many others - am guided by my own interpretation of what is 'right' morally and constitutionally.”

The do have the time to read the media especially social media, that is very biased towards whatever is sensational on that day. That is what influences them most.

The do have the time to read the media especially social media, that is very biased towards whatever is sensational on that day. That is what influences them most.

... as do I! But that's not the kind of "reading" I had in mind.

My 17 year old grandson's hobby is politics - he keeps sending me links to tracts of stuff to read, both historical and current... I'm churning my way through it, and that's how I know, well, how little I really know.

“When it comes to politics - I am not particularly 'misinformed' or even unintelligent, but I am woefully under informed - because I don't have the time to educate myself and read / learn, and - like many others - am guided by my own interpretation of what is 'right' morally and constitutionally.”

The do have the time to read the media especially social media, that is very biased towards whatever is sensational on that day. That is what influences them most.

growstuff

That's very true David, but Reform would have to be in government to change the laws on statutory SEND provision.

No they would have to be part of a coalition with a majority

The conservatives are not an entity at present and people have lost faith in Labour for not behaving as a we expect of a Labour government.
Reform is the party of desperation as people are tired of the two party system now.

Maremia

The votes are in and now we have a chance to see Reform in action. Or will it be 'inaction'. Farage did not attend meetings in the EU, rarely visits Clacton, but still claims expenses. Will they be the same as the Dear Leader? Will voters, desperate for change and 'savings', tolerate this?

I'm guessing Reform voters are a bit of a broad church, but I do not underestimate the power of "stop the boats"... when this is presented as the solution to those who can't find / afford anywhere to live; get a doctor's appointment; the reason why ex-servicemen are out on the streets, etc, etc, etc.

The fact that we are where we are because of years and years of austerity with savage cuts to public spending; lack of investment in infrastructure; stagnating wages, Brexit, blah, blah, will only become apparent when those who voted for "change" realise that their lives have not materially improved. And, even then, there are plenty of other scapegoats that can be blamed for this - the previous (Labour) government, the EU who are obstructing our ability to enjoy the 'freedoms' of Brexit, the unemployed /sick /disabled "who could, really, work if they wanted to"... there's a playbook for this.

So I think voters, desperate for 'change' will tolerate quite a lot before they become totally disillusioned with Reform..

If, as Farage has suggested, healthcare has to be privatised and we all have to buy health insurance, and those who have nothing and can't afford it are allocated some Medicaid / Medicare type of cover with its limitations and complicated structure - well, it might dawn on some voters that the 'change' they voted for has made life much worse, but by then of course, it will be too late.

When it comes to politics - I am not particularly 'misinformed' or even unintelligent, but I am woefully under informed - because I don't have the time to educate myself and read / learn, and - like many others - am guided by my own interpretation of what is 'right' morally and constitutionally. But, when I listen to a friend's daughter admit that she "knows nothing about politics" but agrees with, and will vote for Reform because, yes, it's time for a change - I do despair. Not because I think the young lady is ignorant, bigoted or racist (she's in fact a very nice person) - but because I can see quite clearly how the lure of populism works and how the very people who are attracted to it might will be ultimately let down. This woman is a hard-working single parent, but she's on benefits and struggles financially... will Reform really improve her life? Even if, miraculously, Reform manage to virtually "stop the boats"? I don't think so.

The Tories are in a very tough place and they lack leaders, having thrown the likes of Dominic Grieve, Philip Hammond and Rory Stewart out with the Brexit bath water.

Keir Starmer has no crowd appeal. We all knew that but I didn’t think it mattered as much as it clearly does. I hope he allows Angela Rayner and Jess Phillips to speak more. Cutting the WFA was a stupid and unnecessary mistake that won’t be forgotten in a hurry.

We have to wait and see how the Reform-led councils work.

The Lib Dem’s can’t be defined by Ed Davey’s election stunts. He talks sense on Europe, he advocates for social care, he isn’t cowed by Donald Trump and he has a strong team.

That's very true David, but Reform would have to be in government to change the laws on statutory SEND provision.

Casdon

We don’t actually know if Reform will be a problem for us at the next election or not yet David49? They have one new MP, two mayors and about eight councils so far, that’s the only certainty. It remains to be seen if those untried appointments impress or not, whether they can build on those numbers in any subsequent elections, what scandals are in closets across all parties, and most importantly, what else happens in the next four years - there could easily be momentous change given the uncertainty in the world.

This i# the problem, we don’t know yet!.
We do know they got a significant number of votes at the last GM and have a lot of councillors just elected, they are gaining pace fast with very little substance.

Another posted mentioned reducing SEND being unlawful, laws can be changed, human rights laws can be ignored, as they are in many countries, including the US. The liberal democracy we have today may well be changed if Reform do get significant power.

Reform’s success should have Badenoch and Starmer looking hard at their performance

This.

We don’t actually know if Reform will be a problem for us at the next election or not yet David49? They have one new MP, two mayors and about eight councils so far, that’s the only certainty. It remains to be seen if those untried appointments impress or not, whether they can build on those numbers in any subsequent elections, what scandals are in closets across all parties, and most importantly, what else happens in the next four years - there could easily be momentous change given the uncertainty in the world.

Chocolatelovinggran

growstuff, I have posted on another thread about the significance of SEND on the budget of Kent, where I live. Kent County Council has only ever been Conservative, so I would not expect the new Reform Group to fund massive savings from cutting DEI initiatives.
If the new regime is to deliver it's promises (although there was much talk locally about immigration, which is, of course, outside the remit of the local authority), money must be found for them. I wonder what services might be cut, and how popular these might prove with those who voted for them?
As for Mr Farage being PM- he'd love the role, I'm sure, but I'm not sure he has the time: he's found it trying to fit in his responsibilities as an MP around his other commitments.

I also wonder where he'll make cuts to fund the promised improved services without raising council tax. He can't cut SEND provision without breaking the law. In November 2024, Kent had a £200 million SEND deficit - and that was just doing the minimum it has to by law. I'm still wondering whether any of the new councillors can read a balance sheet.

The Tories can’t be centrist, if Reform take the right of centre votes, Starmer was elected on a left of center platform, even if it doesn’t feel much like that now. The profile of Labour MPs is wide but Starmer has maintained control unlike previous Tory PMs.
Reform is a problem for us all at the next election, in this county it was the urban working/industrial areas that elected Reform councillors, rural areas remained Tory with reduced majority, the few LD areas little change. Reform shows every sign of gathering pace even with little substance to its policies, voters dont like current Labour policies, are right wing Reform policies really going to appeal at the next GE.

growstuff, I have posted on another thread about the significance of SEND on the budget of Kent, where I live. Kent County Council has only ever been Conservative, so I would not expect the new Reform Group to fund massive savings from cutting DEI initiatives.
If the new regime is to deliver it's promises (although there was much talk locally about immigration, which is, of course, outside the remit of the local authority), money must be found for them. I wonder what services might be cut, and how popular these might prove with those who voted for them?
As for Mr Farage being PM- he'd love the role, I'm sure, but I'm not sure he has the time: he's found it trying to fit in his responsibilities as an MP around his other commitments.

The votes are in and now we have a chance to see Reform in action. Or will it be 'inaction'. Farage did not attend meetings in the EU, rarely visits Clacton, but still claims expenses. Will they be the same as the Dear Leader? Will voters, desperate for change and 'savings', tolerate this?

Whitewavemark2

Galaxy

I think he is quite likely to be the next PM to be honest.

Not absolutely convinced of that.

It very much depends first on how the present government performs going forward, and how an alternative to traditional Tory shapes up.

The Libs are certainly a possibility, particularly if they could rid themselves of the ridiculous image that their present leader presents. A new leader with good solid middle ground policies, would definitely win support I would have thought.

I live in the south , so here there has never been much appetite for the brexity type, divisive sort of politics that seems to be more popular in the north. That is not saying it doesn’t exist, but is certainly in the minority.

The interesting one is Kent. It’s Tory council has been swept aside by Reform, and it will now be an interesting watch as they get to grips with managing the largest county council in England.

TBH Kent doesn't surprise me. For a start, Dover is in Kent, so most of the Channel crossings land on Kent's shore. Kent voted 59% to leave the EU, which puzzled me at the time considering that it's the closest county to mainland Europe. I would have thought there are many opportunities for trade.

I look back at people like Cameron, Sunak, May and at the time I wasn't too impressed.

They are fantastic in comparison to what has emerged.

midgey

Unless they sharpen up and start talking policies yes I think they are. Reform are not the answer either.

I agree with you. We laugh at the Americans voting for Trump but are we any better? I don't think so.

In the meanwhile the Lib Dem’s are quietly and carefully building a solid base. My guess is that if things carry on as they are, it will be them holding the balance of power at the next election.

Mollygo

*WWM2
Although one should never underestimate his ability to take on the mantle of the next divisive topic, and run with it.

Your description of Farage reminded me of the Vicar of Bray.
a satirical description of an individual fundamentally changing his principles to remain in . . . office as external requirements change around him.

We’ll have to wait and see.

As for the Conservative Party, I don’t know if we’ve seen the end of it, but certainly they have less impact than Reform.

I think he has one principle which never changes, but it's true he picks up on whatever he thinks people are moaning about.

It will be interesting to see what he does with his new power. I'm especially interested in SEND pupils. Labour has already announced plans to change the system - maybe they should leave the changes to Reform and let them take the flak.

County councils are already being bankrupted by trying to fulfil their statutory obligations for SEND. Nationally, there's something like a £3.3 billion deficit, which is predicted to rise. The councils can't make cuts because they could be sued by parents (and currently they'd lose), so I don't know how Reform thinks it can save money. If it just decides to break the law, it could face an almighty backlash from parents.

PS. The diversity nonsense is just grandstanding.

Oh yes anything could happen. The most likely to avoid him being PM would be that they implode, as new parties tend to do. And it's possible Labour may act on the warning in these elections.

Galaxy

I think he is quite likely to be the next PM to be honest.

Not absolutely convinced of that.

It very much depends first on how the present government performs going forward, and how an alternative to traditional Tory shapes up.

The Libs are certainly a possibility, particularly if they could rid themselves of the ridiculous image that their present leader presents. A new leader with good solid middle ground policies, would definitely win support I would have thought.

I live in the south , so here there has never been much appetite for the brexity type, divisive sort of politics that seems to be more popular in the north. That is not saying it doesn’t exist, but is certainly in the minority.

The interesting one is Kent. It’s Tory council has been swept aside by Reform, and it will now be an interesting watch as they get to grips with managing the largest county council in England.

Conservatives could bounce back if, it's not too late to get back those experienced politicians purged by that idiot Johnson.