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US/UK Trade deal

(55 Posts)
Wyllow3 Thu 08-May-25 14:46:08

Announcements are imminent. Trump will announce first. But there is a salutary warning:

But there is a notable difference in how the UK and the US have been describing this arrangement

The chancellor told me about an "economic and prosperity deal" but the president calls this a "major trade deal

This difference has been there since Keir Starmer met the president in the Oval Office.

What to look out for - it does seem modest

The narrow scope appears to have meant some consideration of lower tariffs for US exports of cars to the UK (from 10% to 2.5%).
In return, the UK could win some sort of tariff-free or lower tariff quota exemption from the 25% tariffs on cars. This is the UK’s biggest goods export. The generosity or not of this depends entirely on the number agreed.

Something similar could apply in steel.

The big problem was pharmaceuticals. The president has not announced his trade restrictions on medicines yet. The danger was for the UK to agree a deal, but then be hit by a subsequent global tariff on its second most important goods export

And there are still concerns about any trade deal being aid in with the NHS.

Several sources are following events as they happen including BBC

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn91dxzv4pnt?post=asset%3Ad1f519b8-2927-486e-9592-19a877eeca4c#post

David49 Fri 09-May-25 06:41:11

Starmer has played the negotiations as well as possible and has achieved a deal we can live with, but the way he was pandering to Trumps vanity was pretty cringeworthy.
The deal on food is somewhat ambiguous, it probably means that US food will be allowed in if it is certified to our standards, there is plenty of organic and conservation grade food that would meet our requirements.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 09-May-25 08:09:00

Key Points

1. Automotive tariffs
With Starmer heading to the Jaguar Land Rover plant in the Midlands to herald the announcement, this was expected to be a major part of the deal, and it is.

Tariffs for UK cars imported into the US will be cut from 27.5% to 10%, up to a maximum of 100,000 cars a year, close to total exports last year. This was, Starmer said, a “huge and important reduction” – even if it is capped, and still a tariff.

2. Steel and aluminium tariffs
US tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium have been reduced to zero under the deal. This is relatively little in overall trade terms, comprising only about £700m a year.

However, steel has a political resonance beyond its economic heft, with the UK government stepping in last month to take control of British Steel to prevent its Chinese owner shutting the Scunthorpe plant.

3. Agriculture
The most potentially tricky area of the deal, not least due to concerns among UK voters – and farmers – about chlorinated chicken and hormone-fed beef.

The result was hailed by Downing Street as “a win for both nations”. As ever, the devil could be in the detail. Government officials said there had been no compromise on food standards, while the deal would open exclusive access for UK beef farmers to the US.

However, it also includes £5bn worth of agricultural exports from the US to the UK, with the US agriculture secretary, Brooke Rollins, saying the deal would “exponentially increase our beef exports” to the UK.

The National Farmers Union cautiously welcomed the proposals, but said that UK arable farmers could have concerns about the inclusion of large amounts of bioethanol imports from the US.

4. Other areas
A White House guide to the deal which, while brief, gave more details than its Downing Street equivalent, listed a series of other, more specific agreements, including:

“Streamlined” customs procedures for US imports to the UK.
Preferential access to UK aerospace components for US manufacturers.
Increased help for US firms with UK procurement.
5. Pharmaceuticals
And now for areas where there was no news. Trump has been threatening tariffs on this, an important area of the UK economy, but it does not fall under the agreement – yet.

Trump’s commerce secretary, speaking after his boss, indicated that more could come: “It lays out the plan that you can work with us in autos, you can work with us with aero and commercial. You can work with us in pharmaceuticals.”

6. Film industry
The UK film industry reacted with horror to Trump’s promise this week to impose a 100% tariff on all movies “produced in foreign lands”, with predictions it could wipe out a business worth billions of pounds to the UK economy.

There was no carve out for this in the US-UK deal – but this is not a surprise. To begin with, Trump’s announcement was just days ago. Also, it was less a policy than a rant on social media, and it remains to be seen if it will be imposed, and if so, how.

7. Digital services taxes or online safety
There had been speculation that Trump’s team would insist on concessions in one or both these areas as a price to reduce tariffs – which could have caused a big political storm.

But answering questions in the Commons on the deal, Douglas Alexander, the trade minister, told MPs there had been no changes on either.

Guardian today

Whitewavemark2 Fri 09-May-25 08:12:27

I think that is sensible not to put too much importance on this tariff deal.

It isn’t a trade deal, and only represents some of the trade done with USA.

What will make a big difference to the U.K. will be a trade deal done with the EU - hopefully some time this month and which will - all being well - go towards closing the 15% drop in GDP since Brexit.

Wyllow3 Fri 09-May-25 13:38:37

Yes, I'm optimistic on this one. The BBC:

"The Governor of the Bank of England has said the UK now needs to "rebuild" Britain's trade relationship with the European Union and do "everything we can" to improve long term trade, after yesterday's US deal"

Andrew Bailey told the BBC that as a public official he did not take a view on Brexit, but that reversing the post Brexit hit to UK-EU trade would be "beneficial".

The Government is currently in talks with the EU on its plan to reset its trade and security relationship ahead of a summit later this month".

David it was made absolutely clear and specific that food imports have to meet our standards, I don't know why you have put a ? over it. I don't actually understand the need to "Swap" beef across the pond really but presume its specialist top of the range products.

Nicolenet Fri 09-May-25 14:14:36

Looking up chlorinated chicken recipes! Gnamie

MaggsMcG Fri 09-May-25 15:31:16

The pharmaceutical issue worries me a lot. So does the NHS.
My granddaughter and a lot of others rely on a USA developed medication which is expensive even now. If the Orange Clown puts an even higher tariff on it its at risk. Ironic thing is if they don't get this medication they will all end up on PIP and Sickness Benefits because their health will deteriorate. Starmer is ridiculous already his party never looks at the long term effects of their so called solutions.

LizzieDrip Fri 09-May-25 15:44:44

Nicolenet

Looking up chlorinated chicken recipes! Gnamie

Why????

mokryna Fri 09-May-25 15:45:17

GrannyGravy13

Last line of my post?

We have family in three EU countries, they are able to buy U.K. goods.

The U.K. definitely exports to the EU

What do English people living in France after many years buy from the UK? My problem is that on the web it says Lea &Perrins Worcestershire Sauce can be bought at the three local French supermarkets that are in walking distance of where I live, however, unfortunately, this particular sauce has been out of stock for many, many months. Heinz is no substitute, too sweet. Oh and there are no oxoes.
Fresh fruit and vegetables are in abundance as well as good meat.
I do recommend to my English visitors to bring their breakfast cereals as, although they are the same brand they not the same taste/texture. I buy Quaker porridge oats but I do miss Lea & Perrins Worcestershire Sauce.

Allira Fri 09-May-25 15:51:10

Mollygo

But it’s always been difficult to get English cheeses in France, Belgium, Holland, Italy and Germany for as long as I’ve been travelling to Europe.
We always took our English cheese with us to gîtes we stayed in because some of the party, didn’t like European cheeses and apart from the occasional cheddar, English cheese was rare.
For the other things, we’ve had no problems so far, but maybe it’ll be different when we’re on the continent this year.

The UK dairy export industry is witnessing a significant boom, reaching £1.8 billion in 2024, largely fueled by heightened demand from the European Union and the United States, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).

Specifically, cheese exports have surged to their highest level since 2020, valued at £887 million, with the EU receiving 72% of these exports, representing an almost 10% increase from the previous year.
Read more at © DairyNews.today dairynews.today/news/uk-cheese-exports-reach-highest-level-since-2020.html

Sarnia Fri 09-May-25 15:52:41

Thank goodness for Brexit. I'll get my coat................

Wyllow3 Fri 09-May-25 15:54:21

MaggsMcG that issue worries a lot of us. I have always felt that no country should put tariffs on pharmaceuticals. It is currently unresolved. We want to do a deal but it has to work for us too.

(I can't quite understand holding Starmer responsible for a situation where the US has imposed a tariff of 10% not us?)

There are also no suggestions that the USA will "up the 10%" already imposed.......

as after all, the medical sector in the US will now have to pay 10% extra on all UK Pharma products, its not us paying extra.

MayBee70 Fri 09-May-25 15:57:11

Sarnia

Thank goodness for Brexit. I'll get my coat................

Thank goodness we have a PM who has years of experience in negotiating with difficult people.

Sarnia Fri 09-May-25 16:04:39

MayBee70

Sarnia

Thank goodness for Brexit. I'll get my coat................

Thank goodness we have a PM who has years of experience in negotiating with difficult people.

If we were still in the EU this deal would not have happened. Hopefully this will put a stop to the recent rumours of Sir Keir Starmer keen to rekindle a relationship with the EU.

keepingquiet Fri 09-May-25 16:12:29

Of course it won't! It is a small fish comapred to the big pond of European trade.

The publicity and razzmatazz over this was sickening yesterday- we didn't have the same fuss over the recent trade deal with India for example.

For one I am so glad the conclave got on with it and elected a pope or there would have been no end to this over-blown news story.

Galaxy Fri 09-May-25 16:13:10

I actually don't mind Starmers 'pandering to Trumps vanity', there are all sorts of uncomfortable things we have to do in terms of international relations, I would say that is the least of my worries.
I disagree fundamentally with some of Starmers domestic decisions, but think internationally he is doing well.

MayBee70 Fri 09-May-25 17:08:50

Sarnia

MayBee70

Sarnia

Thank goodness for Brexit. I'll get my coat................

Thank goodness we have a PM who has years of experience in negotiating with difficult people.

If we were still in the EU this deal would not have happened. Hopefully this will put a stop to the recent rumours of Sir Keir Starmer keen to rekindle a relationship with the EU.

The governor of the Bank of England has said the UK now needs to "rebuild" its trade relationship with the European Union and do "everything we can" to improve long-term trade, after Thursday's US deal.

Andrew Bailey told the BBC that as a public official he did not take a view on Brexit, but that reversing the post-Brexit hit to UK-EU trade would be "beneficial".

The government is currently in talks with the EU on its plan to reset its trade and security relationship ahead of a summit later this month.

The US deal has left space for the UK to pursue a veterinary agreement with the EU, including alignment on standards in order to lower post-Brexit red tape on food, farm and fish exports.

As part of a new agreement between the US and the UK, the White House agreed to reduce import taxes on a set number of British cars and allow some steel and aluminium into the country tariff-free.

But it will leave a 10% duty in place on most goods from the UK.

Pushed on what impact a closer relationship between the UK and the EU would have on the economy and inflation, Mr Bailey said: "It would be beneficial - having a more open economy to trade with the European Union. Because there has been a fall-off in goods trade with the EU over recent years."

He added that it mattered because the EU is the UK's largest trading partner.

"It is important we do everything we can to ensure that whatever decisions are taken on the Brexit front do not damage the long-term trade position. So I hope that we can use this to start to rebuild that relationship," Mr Bailey said.

The governor also said that the UK's deal-making across the world was setting an important example to other countries.

"It demonstrates that trade deals are important. Trade deals can be done, and the trade is important.

"Honestly, it seems an unpromising landscape at times. But I hope that we can use these deals to rebuild the world trading system," he said.

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Casdon Fri 09-May-25 17:16:09

Sarnia

MayBee70

Sarnia

Thank goodness for Brexit. I'll get my coat................

Thank goodness we have a PM who has years of experience in negotiating with difficult people.

If we were still in the EU this deal would not have happened. Hopefully this will put a stop to the recent rumours of Sir Keir Starmer keen to rekindle a relationship with the EU.

You’re way off the mark Sarnia, sorry. We need the 18% of EU trade we have lost, they are our neighbours, and deals with other countries is not going to change that.

MayBee70 Fri 09-May-25 17:55:00

I was chatting to someone the other day that used to work on a radio news programme and when I asked him of any Brexit benefits he said the only one he knew of was if you committed a driving offence in the EU the DVLC no longer bothered to follow it up….

David49 Sat 10-May-25 09:37:59

“David it was made absolutely clear and specific that food imports have to meet our standards, I don't know why you have put a ? over it. I don't actually understand the need to "Swap" beef across the pond really but presume its specialist top of the range products.”

I thought most realized that the exact specification of beef (or chicken) imports has not yet been clarified, hence the “?”

Most of the beef imports into the UK go into the catering industry, not supermarket shelves

Grantanow Sat 10-May-25 09:46:07

Starmer has done well. It's a good start with the US and doesn't undermine working with the EU. The deal with India is also a good start. Badenoch is clutching at straws when complaining about no tax on Indian expats. We already have no double taxation agreements with about 50 countries mostly agreed under Tory government's.

Whitewavemark2 Sat 10-May-25 09:46:26

Sarnia

MayBee70

Sarnia

Thank goodness for Brexit. I'll get my coat................

Thank goodness we have a PM who has years of experience in negotiating with difficult people.

If we were still in the EU this deal would not have happened. Hopefully this will put a stop to the recent rumours of Sir Keir Starmer keen to rekindle a relationship with the EU.

There is of course a reason for that from which every member benefits.

Wyllow3 Sat 10-May-25 09:59:17

It's a mini deal compared with the benefits of a better trade relationship with the EU.
What are these "recent rumours"? I've seen none. Starmer has never proposed a return to the EU, just always trade, customs, security deals. We have lost a lot of trade with the EU, more than gained just now with the US.

David49 Sat 10-May-25 10:06:11

“If we were still in the EU this deal would not have happened. Hopefully this will put a stop to the recent rumours of Sir Keir Starmer keen to rekindle a relationship with the EU.”

It couldn’t have happened we didn’t do individual trade deals.

Now we do have to be careful that US imports do meet our standards, which are equivalent to EU standards, the original Brexit policy was to diverge from EU but that hasn’t happened.
If we are to “move closer” then standards need to be the same, that a long way from any kind of serious integration with EU.

Whitewavemark2 Sat 10-May-25 10:09:06

Which I am confident will not happen given the importance Starmer is placing on closer ties with the EU.

MayBee70 Sat 10-May-25 16:02:56

I think Starmer and I seem to have followed the same path regarding Brexit. He took part in the people’s vote marches as did I. But I then became resigned to the fact that rejoining was out of the question and felt we had to move forward; at the same time repairing the damage to our relationship with our closest trading partners.