Reform, their policies and local government

Ample stocks of Grain, prices are low are well into a year in advance, in addition a lot of grain and maize is used for biofuels in US, Europe and elsewhere that would be diverted to food

There are ample supplies globally more would be imported and the highest bidder gets the commodity.

QED

David49

MaizieD

^ Futures are the way that consumers (Millers) guarantee prices in months to come for bakers and supermarkets, with prices stable at a lowish price you can bet they are buying well forward.^

'They' might be buying well forward, David but what happens when there isn't enough wheat of the right quality to fulfil those orders?

There are ample supplies globally more would be imported and the highest bidder gets the commodity. If a farmer or speculator sells more than he has he has to buy back at whatever price to clear the contract.
Futures have no tolerance and dont always follow the physical market, speculators are gambling and take that risk millers and farmers are insuring against price changes, (not many farmers at current prices).

Long term supply contracts need security of supply, the futures market gives that. Buyers of wheat for milling will contract varying quantities forward depending on how they see future supply. The the war in Ukraine is the current uncertainty, they and Russia are massive grain exporters, disruption will see prices increase.

On the other side, farmers worldwide are struggling, it’s no different in Canada, the US, Australia, NZ or UK, crop values are too low. There is very little chance prices are going to fall, most farmers have alternative enterprises they won’t grow crops at a loss.

All those words, David to say more or less what I said in the first place. Prices will rise.

There may be 'ample stocks' now (your reason for saying that is what?) but how long will they last, and once they are exhausted, what happens?

'They' might be buying well forward, David but what happens when there isn't enough wheat of the right quality to fulfil those orders?
Quite.
Weather, wars, problems with supply chains etc.

M0nica

I always think of Refom as a party with a very loud mouth but no trousers, like other parties (unnamed) at national level, there is an enormous gap between the pre, and immediately post election, rhetoric and what they actually do once reality strikes and they have to try to govern.

M0nica, I think you can say this about any extreme. Politics and religion are obvious but it's also true that the rhetoric of the extreme is rarely the truth in science, technology, health, lifestyle, economics, etc.

Extremists have the words but it's rare to never that the extreme answer actually improves life for the majority.

MaizieD

^ Futures are the way that consumers (Millers) guarantee prices in months to come for bakers and supermarkets, with prices stable at a lowish price you can bet they are buying well forward.^

'They' might be buying well forward, David but what happens when there isn't enough wheat of the right quality to fulfil those orders?

There are ample supplies globally more would be imported and the highest bidder gets the commodity. If a farmer or speculator sells more than he has he has to buy back at whatever price to clear the contract.
Futures have no tolerance and dont always follow the physical market, speculators are gambling and take that risk millers and farmers are insuring against price changes, (not many farmers at current prices).

Long term supply contracts need security of supply, the futures market gives that. Buyers of wheat for milling will contract varying quantities forward depending on how they see future supply. The the war in Ukraine is the current uncertainty, they and Russia are massive grain exporters, disruption will see prices increase.

On the other side, farmers worldwide are struggling, it’s no different in Canada, the US, Australia, NZ or UK, crop values are too low. There is very little chance prices are going to fall, most farmers have alternative enterprises they won’t grow crops at a loss.

So we now have Reform’s immigration policy straight out of the Trump play book.

Oh joy!

In one, Allira. As there’s another thread running about food inflation topping 4.2% today, I think we can rest on our laurels slightly, even though rising food inflation is obviously very undesirable.

I do understand that women don’t like to be proved wrong
😁

I think this is proving to be a prime example of how some men dislike their dogma being challenged, especially by women!

^ Futures are the way that consumers (Millers) guarantee prices in months to come for bakers and supermarkets, with prices stable at a lowish price you can bet they are buying well forward.^

'They' might be buying well forward, David but what happens when there isn't enough wheat of the right quality to fulfil those orders?

David49

WW if you would like to present a logical reasoned argument that my opinions are wrong then I will consider them.

I don’t think you have one.

Your whole economic theory is wrong, David but producing logical reasoned argument shifts your beliefs not a whit.

(Though, to be fair, you're not the only one on this forum resistant to facts and logic)

WW if you would like to present a logical reasoned argument that my opinions are wrong then I will consider them.

I don’t think you have one.

David49

Not wishing to overcomplicate global food supply I did not mention currency changes, international trade is priced in US dollars, at present sterling value is moderately strong, the dollar could weaken which helps us, or more likely sterling falls, the more we import the higher the risk.
If the UK economy weakens or crashes (remember Truss) our food prices could easily rise by 20%, Starmer and Reeves are well aware of that risk. At present I’m not confident they are going to achieve enough more revenue to balance the books.

😄😄you can’t help yourself can you!

Not wishing to overcomplicate global food supply I did not mention currency changes, international trade is priced in US dollars, at present sterling value is moderately strong, the dollar could weaken which helps us, or more likely sterling falls, the more we import the higher the risk.
If the UK economy weakens or crashes (remember Truss) our food prices could easily rise by 20%, Starmer and Reeves are well aware of that risk. At present I’m not confident they are going to achieve enough more revenue to balance the books.

Casdon

As I said no such thing David49, I can only assume you don’t read my posts. I said there was a drought in Europe too, which has affected their crops, and that food would therefore be more expensive. I’m womansplaining now.

And you should read mine I didn’t say it was you, I do understand that women don’t like to be proved wrong. Most dont know how global food supply works in one brief paragraph I explained the basics of food supply, compared with some of the long winded diatribe on this site it was modest

Yet you call it mansplaining

As I said no such thing David49, I can only assume you don’t read my posts. I said there was a drought in Europe too, which has affected their crops, and that food would therefore be more expensive. I’m womansplaining now.

Casdon

You must resist the temptation to speak to us as though we were slightly backward children David. All the predictions are that inflation related to food prices will continue, so prices will rise.

Then you should stop spreading stupid theories about food shortages in the UK, stop believing scare stories.

Others disagreed with my opinion that food shortages and price rises were unlikely I explained why in my opinion it was not going to happen. It was stated that Canada and Europe had problems that may or may not be true what matters is the world price of Wheat to produce bread and bakery products, that price is stable and supermarkets are able to get fixed long term supply contracts. Not just for bread etc but for chicken and pork because other cereals are linked to wheat value, beef and lamb are likely to be more variable due to shortages.

We're wimmin, Casdon
Men need to mansplain to us in words of few syllables so we get it.

You must resist the temptation to speak to us as though we were slightly backward children David. All the predictions are that inflation related to food prices will continue, so prices will rise.

It’s bread wheat that is most important for cost of living currently it is around £180 a ton ex farm, forward contract futures are much the same. Futures are the way that consumers (Millers) guarantee prices in months to come for bakers and supermarkets, with prices stable at a lowish price you can bet they are buying well forward. Farmers are very disappointed. Yields are well down on average, area harvested is less too, usually there is a price premium in a poor year but not this year.

Its quite likely government effort to keep prices down by allowing more imports, also tied to agreeing tariffs with Trump. Other cereals used for animal feed are around £150 -160, all these prices are barely economic to grow.

The only realistic reason that prices will increase is a major escalation in Ukraine that prevents Russia and Ukraine exporting through the Black Sea. Most of that wheat goes to Middle East and North Africa any interruption will cause major problems for them. Because millers will have contracted supplies well forward even that will have little effect on UK food prices.

MaizieD

^Although crop yields are lower than average, prices are stable because there are plenty of imports available to top up supply.^

Are you sure about that, David?

I've been told that other countries have been struggling, notably Canada, one of the world's 'grain baskets'...

I was rather surprised by David49's optimism!

Mind you, I remember my uncle gazing up at the sky, complaining about the weather; there was always too much rain, not enough rain, too hot, drought, rain when it was harvest time ....
My father was the same although he didn't go into farming, but he was a gardener growing vegetables!

There is drought in Northern Europe too, and we import a lot of food from France and the Netherlands in particular, grain crops must be lower there too.

Although crop yields are lower than average, prices are stable because there are plenty of imports available to top up supply.

Are you sure about that, David?

I've been told that other countries have been struggling, notably Canada, one of the world's 'grain baskets'...

Although crop yields are lower than average, prices are stable because there are plenty of imports available to top up supply. The real shortage is fodder for winter feeding animals because grass and maize crops are very poor, enough will be found because part can be substituted with cereals for cattle and sheep, pigs and poultry have cereal based diets so little effect.

Vegetables are variable some growers have irrigation available even so supply is likely be restricted, rain soon will bulk up winter crops.

Mollygo

Whitewavemark2

To be perfectly frank, I think Reform and particularly Farage are very good at criticising various issues, but appear clueless as to how to resolve them.

Yes but they never expected that they would have to resolve them, did they?

Exactly. Criticise but never actually produce a plan. Anyone can spout what they consider to be popular and their adamant views are taken by so many to mean they know how to change things. Farage is an agitator and not a politician. .