Caerphilly Election Result - bucking the trend

Using yesterday’s result as a base and applying the PR d’Hondt formula, Plaid would win 3 of the 6 seats, Reform 2 and Labour 1.

Now extrapolate that across 16 constituencies, Plaid would have 48 seats, Reform 32 and Labour 16. Plaid would be one seat short of a majority.

A niche language? It is their language, their birthright. The language of wonderful poetry and music. A language with words that cannot be translated into English and why should they?

Hiraeth

A wonderful word.

Still - less than one million Welsh speaking people world wide (I just Googled it).
Over eight BILLION people in the world.
So yes, it is niche - by any metric bonbon.

Typo - spoken not spoke.

Casdon

What heartened me was that there was over 50% turnout, which was the highest ever at a Senedd by election. People were clearly invested in getting their choice elected.

According to the lunchtime news quite a good turnout among young voters.

FriedGreenTomatoes2

I say it MaizieD because Wales is struggling in so many ways. Their NHS is pretty abysmally run. The insistence upon everything (leaflets, recorded messages etc) being in that niche language that’s very nice to keep as a tradition but absolutely no use anywhere else in the world. Other aspects too with Drakeford. I’m just a little surprised is all that Caerphilly have voted for ‘more of the same’.

I didn’t mean for it to sound in any way derogatory. I just thought that if the voters wanted ‘change’ Plaid wasn’t best placed to deliver is all - as they’ve channelled along in Labour’s slipstream for years.

For your information FGT2 Welsh is not a niche language that's very nice to keep as a tradition but absolutely no use anywhere else in the world.
Welsh is spoken in a number of countries. It is spoken in England, particularly London and is also spoken in Scotland. Most notably it is Spoken in Chubut Province in Argentine Patagoina but it is also spoken in the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. There are smaller pockets around the globe where Welsh is spoke.

Labour have been in power far too long here in Wales and it's good to see a change on the way. Well done Plaid.

Yes it is growstuff, before the Senedd election next year. A Plaid/Labour coalition is the most likely outcome I think. Plaid and Reform have diametrically opposed policies, and one thing I can confidently say about Plaid is that they are very principled, so there will never be a Plaid/Reform coalition - the dragons will be flying again in Wales before that comes to pass.

Sorry Casdon I've just seen that you addressed this on the previous page, but I hadn't scrolled back.

Casdon

South Wales is full of people who think for themselves, and they deserve some respect. Remember that the cracks are showing for Reform, probably more starkly here than elsewhere - the previous Welsh Reform lead was working for the Russians. Tactical voting for good reason.

Am I right in thinking the voting system for the Senedd is changing to PR?

PR will undoubtedly result in Reform having a number of seats and I expect there will be no overall winner. What are the chances of Labour and Plaid forming a coalition, with Reform as the main opposition?

By the way....the Tories lost their £500 deposit, having failed to win 5% of all votes cast (they won just 2%).

Also losing their deposits were the Green Party, the Liberal Democrats, Gwlad and UKIP
Labour weren't far off….

South Wales is full of people who think for themselves, and they deserve some respect. Remember that the cracks are showing for Reform, probably more starkly here than elsewhere - the previous Welsh Reform lead was working for the Russians. Tactical voting for good reason.

Socialist principles aren’t ’fruit and nut’ PaynesGrey. It was an amusing name given weeks ago to Corbyn’s new party. (Have they actually thought of a name yet?). Corbyn is the nut and Sultana (obviously) is the fruit.

Yes silly, but clever whoever thought it up. In my opinion.
I’m nowhere near as highbrow intelligent as some on here. Small things amuse me.

MaizieD

^Mind you a decent turn out so it must be what the Welsh voters want!^

Why wouldn't they want 'the left'? You say it as if it something wrong to be wanting. I find that really puzzling.

I think that the UK is following the US in equating left wing politics with something dreadful, communism maybe. It didn’t used to be like this back in the day. And I think it is why Starmer has moved so far right politically, which might suit Tories who feel the Conservatives have moved too far right, but doesn’t suit the millions of voters who expected a more left wing government.

Good result for Plaid Cymru and pleased that Reform was not victorious- as Farage expected.

I don't think Farage/Reform had grasped that Migration is not a devolved issue (only about 3% of the population in the Caerphilly area were not born in the UK) and vowed/campaigned to end what it calls Labour and Plaid's "mass immigration agenda". This did not work out as hoped. Reform does not have much of a platform without this, their recurring theme, apart from agitating the status quo. .

In contrast Plaid's candidate campaigned on "needing to get back to bread and butter issues, things such as the cost of living, the money in people's pockets, jobs and opportunities for young people".

Common sense prevailed and good luck to Plaid going forward.

I say it MaizieD because Wales is struggling in so many ways. Their NHS is pretty abysmally run. The insistence upon everything (leaflets, recorded messages etc) being in that niche language that’s very nice to keep as a tradition but absolutely no use anywhere else in the world. Other aspects too with Drakeford. I’m just a little surprised is all that Caerphilly have voted for ‘more of the same’.

I didn’t mean for it to sound in any way derogatory. I just thought that if the voters wanted ‘change’ Plaid wasn’t best placed to deliver is all - as they’ve channelled along in Labour’s slipstream for years.

You forgot to say ‘Reform significantly overestimated their vote share’ FriedGreenTomatoes2, and also ‘the Caerphilly vote demonstrates how tactical voting can affect results quite dramatically’. It’s all very interesting I think.

I was shocked by the fact that a 50% turn out, the highest ever, is regarded as good.

It is no good complaining about the government, any government, if you don't bother to use your vote.

MaizieD

^Mind you a decent turn out so it must be what the Welsh voters want!^

Why wouldn't they want 'the left'? You say it as if it something wrong to be wanting. I find that really puzzling.

So do I. Why is having socialist principles "fruit and nut"?

Fair comment MaizieD. Labour are certainly ‘less left’ than they would’ve been under Corbyn. Support for his Fruit & Nut Party will impinge on Labour - some forecasters say swiping 10% off Labour.

However - These results today are not hard to interpret.
Both Labour and the Conservatives are toast. That's it.

Mind you a decent turn out so it must be what the Welsh voters want!

Why wouldn't they want 'the left'? You say it as if it something wrong to be wanting. I find that really puzzling.

FriedGreenTomatoes2

Plaid are further left than Labour.
This is going to be an interesting time.

Mind you a decent turn out so it must be what the Welsh voters want!

Labour aren't 'left' at all. Not in the current incarnation.

I expect Plaid voters want a return to the leftish principles which Labour is expected to espouse. As well as independence from Westminster...

Plaid are further left than Labour.
This is going to be an interesting time.

Mind you a decent turn out so it must be what the Welsh voters want!

I agree Sparkly. Labour are failing on several fronts and voters are showing their
dissatisfaction.

Welsh Labour need to rethink and regroup here. Banging on attacking the Disabled is not going down well, they sound like the Tories. Cars are essential in rural Wales if you want to work, and if you use a wheelchair, even more so.

IMHO people voted for Plaid to get away from Labour.