Caerphilly Election Result - bucking the trend

A bad but not unexpected result for Labour.

I stayed up to watch the live coverage. It became increasingly clear that Plaid was going to win - with some very good insights from Richard Gurner of the Caerphilly Observer.

It’s been a particulary bad few weeks for Reform. The ongoing shambles at Kent CC, the resignation of Neville Watson, Farage’s childish micro-aggressions e.g. his treatment of journalist Mishal Husain and his childish strop on Wednesday, sitting in the public gallery with Arron Banks rather than take his seat in the HoC because he alleges the Speaker isn’t giving him enough air-time.

And of course, the ticking timebomb of Russian asset Nathan Gill. Byline Times and The Nerve are doing sterling work on this. Llŷr Powell frantically tried to expunge his socials of any connection to Gill - but too late. The people of Caerphilly saw sense and kept him out. Well done Lindsay Whittle. Plaid Cymru’s hope beat Reform’s hate.

George Eaton writing for New Statesman:

Even as Reform has led every UK opinion poll since May, Farage’s opponents have identified his Achilles heel. As the New Statesman have often noted, for a populist Farage is not particularly popular. Polls regularly show that around 60 per cent of voters do not want him to become prime minister.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/morning-call/2025/10/caerphilly-shows-nigel-farages-achilles-heel

Not the result that we’d hoped for. Out of the frying pan and into another one that’s very very similar!

Well they kept Reform out, is what I heard in the coffee shop at the gym this morning.

PaynesGrey

A bad but not unexpected result for Labour.

I stayed up to watch the live coverage. It became increasingly clear that Plaid was going to win - with some very good insights from Richard Gurner of the Caerphilly Observer.

It’s been a particulary bad few weeks for Reform. The ongoing shambles at Kent CC, the resignation of Neville Watson, Farage’s childish micro-aggressions e.g. his treatment of journalist Mishal Husain and his childish strop on Wednesday, sitting in the public gallery with Arron Banks rather than take his seat in the HoC because he alleges the Speaker isn’t giving him enough air-time.

And of course, the ticking timebomb of Russian asset Nathan Gill. Byline Times and The Nerve are doing sterling work on this. Llŷr Powell frantically tried to expunge his socials of any connection to Gill - but too late. The people of Caerphilly saw sense and kept him out. Well done Lindsay Whittle. Plaid Cymru’s hope beat Reform’s hate.

George Eaton writing for New Statesman:

Even as Reform has led every UK opinion poll since May, Farage’s opponents have identified his Achilles heel. As the New Statesman have often noted, for a populist Farage is not particularly popular. Polls regularly show that around 60 per cent of voters do not want him to become prime minister.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/morning-call/2025/10/caerphilly-shows-nigel-farages-achilles-heel

Hopefully, Reform has peaked. People are beginning to see what they'd actually be like in power (now they have a taste of in the counties) rather than just attacking those in power.

It's blatantly obvious that people are unhappy with the historic, established parties, but hopefully voters are now questioning what Reform has to offer.

What heartened me was that there was over 50% turnout, which was the highest ever at a Senedd by election. People were clearly invested in getting their choice elected.

Maybe our hope lies with the Celtic Fringe

Casdon

What heartened me was that there was over 50% turnout, which was the highest ever at a Senedd by election. People were clearly invested in getting their choice elected.

From what you know, do you think there was tactical voting?

Is it too much to hope that Labour has a major rethink on its current strategy as a result of this by election? Its current approach is completely out of tune with what people are wanting; were expecting, from a Labour government

I am delighted that Reform's hopes were dashed.

Congratulations to the Caerphilly voters.

Very glad about this result.
My guess is that Reform, after enjoying a honeymoon period, will now find that their bubble has burst to some extent.
Well done Plaid Cymru.

Reforms vote went from 2% to 36%. Labours vote went from 46% to 11%.
I would suggest that isn't particularly indicative of a problem for reform.

Tactical.
Pleased to see so many want to keep Reform out.

Commentators were saying that people who hadn’t voted in years (if ever) had come out to vote.

Lindsay Whittle is very popular locally having served as a local councillor continuously since 1976.

Llyr Powell is a nasty piece of work with long-standing links to the far right and has been very evasive about his links to Nathan Gill.

There’s a lot that the Reform candidate doesn't seem to want voters to know about him

leftfootforward.org/2025/10/who-is-llyr-powell-reforms-candidate-in-the-caerphilly-senedd-by-election/

When the result was announced, he didn’t even have to good grace to speak, which winner Lindsay Whittle and the other losing candidates did, paying tribute to the late Hefin David.

NotSpaghetti

Tactical.
Pleased to see so many want to keep Reform out.

Interesting. Now that people have been shaken out of complacency, I have a feeling we might see more people voting tactically to keep Reform out. They don't have an overall majority and they'about to show whether they're capable of being anything other than a protest vote.

Galaxy

Reforms vote went from 2% to 36%. Labours vote went from 46% to 11%.
I would suggest that isn't particularly indicative of a problem for reform.

Of course it's a massive problem for Labour and if they go batting on with the Blue Labour nonsense they will not solve it.

But it's quite a setback for Reform as it belied the national polling which has had them placed as major winners in a General Election despite the fact that 60% of voters don't like them. Populist sound bites and vague economic ideas won't sustain them for the next 4 years.

I think it says a lot about Reform myself Galaxy. What it says to me is that in the Labour heartlands of South Wales, voters are likely to vote further left (which is what Plaid are) than they are to turn to Reform. If Wales follows the Scottish lead and nationalism rises, the UK will become more polarised - it’s early to make assumptions, but this win will be a huge boost for Plaid.

Starmer is taking the flack but Mr 20mph Mark Drakeford is the one who deserves the credit for this disaster, according to friends in Wales!

I don’t think your friends are correct FriedGreenTomatoes2. I just think Labour have run their course for now in Wales. They have been in power since the Senedd started, and are stale and complacent as a result. It’s not down to one politician, but the fire of the early years has gone, and change for Wales is needed. Plaid has the reputation for hard graft, they stand up for Wales, and they now have an excellent leader.

I agree they do have an excellent leader Casdon. He knows his stuff, he has national pride and is very charismatic.

However …
Labour vote went down by 72%
Plaid vote went up by 94%
Reform vote went up by 2,300%

It’s early days.

Absolutely right, Maizie.

Starmer’s conservatism and his cautious incremental charges.

Interesting NewStatesman discussion between Tom McTague and Andrew Marr on how Starmer is failing Britain and what the future political landscape may look like unless he makes radical change.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7jA3PLbBYM&t=1799s

This was published before the Caerphilly election result.

In other news, I see Reform-lead Worcestershire council are floating the idea of a 10% hike in council tax.

“In other news, I see Reform-lead Worcestershire council are floating the idea of a 10% hike in council tax.”

Oh my, that won’t be popular.

I wonder how the Reform vote will be affected if the Conservatives manage to find themselves a competent leader. It doesn't seem likely, but miracles do occasionally happen ...

Spectator nails it;

"What makes this result so stark, so different – and so worthy of a “this is important” write-up – is it accompanies a national polling picture saying the exact same thing. Whereas insurgent upsets were once the exception, they have now become the rule

An isolated by-election, for a seat that will not even exist in six months’ time, shouldn’t matter on paper. But as Caerphilly goes, so, it seems, can go much of the rest of Wales. And England. And even Scotland. The humbling of the two party structure; and the abandonment of this incumbent advantage to narrative can ring in chaos for any and all. As I and my colleague Harry Clarke-Ezzidio writes, no seat is a safe seat anymore."

Babs03

“In other news, I see Reform-lead Worcestershire council are floating the idea of a 10% hike in council tax.”

Oh my, that won’t be popular.

Oh dear! Oh dear! Oh dear!

And I thought Reform had imbibed Lily’s Embrocation and were the saviours of the human race!

FriedGreenTomatoes2

I agree they do have an excellent leader Casdon. He knows his stuff, he has national pride and is very charismatic.

However …
Labour vote went down by 72%
Plaid vote went up by 94%
Reform vote went up by 2,300%

It’s early days.

The Welsh Senedd election in 2026 will be proportional representation for all seats rather than the current hybrid system FriedGreenTomatoes3.

In the Caerphilly election, Plaid got 47% of the vote, Labour got 11% of the vote. Reform got 36%, and Tories got 2%. My maths skills (!) tell me that with 57% of the vote there will be a Plaid/Labour coalition if that result plays out Wales wide. Tactical voting will not enable Reform to have any role in government.