Venezuela air attack

With regard to the oil.

The entire infrastructure in Venezuela is shot including the oil industry. It will take years to get it up to standard which is why Trump has been unable to name a single oil company willing to take it on.

The big oil companies will want to see political stability and long term assurance before they begin to invest billions into Venezuela.

Just listening to some comment. Apparently the agreement is that the Venezuelan military which is one of the most powerful bodies, will work with the USA. That then makes more sense when Trump says that the leader of the opposition does not have the support to be the next leader.

The military do not support the opposition.

Rodriguez is on board with this, but has yet to learn how to toe the line as far as Trump is concerned.

So you think Maduro is the good guy despite 8 million of his own people fleeing his persecution.

A straw man argument, Davi49.

Grandmabatty

As I've stated before, it's entirely possible to hold two different views on a related subject. You can deplore the actions of the president of Venezuela and his cabal towards his people while still deploring the actions of another president in invading Venezuela to illegally taking that president into custody. I wholeheartedly agree with Madeleine.

So do I.

Can we be clear David, not a single Poster on this Thread has claimed that Meduro is a 'good guy'.
You are weakening any points you are trying to make, by using this conflation.

I'm not sure Rodriguez has agreed to give Trump large amounts of oil yet. After being sworn in she has made some defiant statements against Trump. She is walking a tightrope as to some degree, as it could be said is Trump ( though he won't see it that way).

Venezuela's constitution requires an election within 30 days whenever a president becomes " permanently unavailable" to serve. Reasons listed include death, removal from office or "abandonment" of duties as declared by National Assembly. It remains to be seen whether an election takes place and if so the outcome.

Trump meanwhile needs to get US oil companies on side to invest in Venezuela to be able to drill oil down the line. Trump says he has spoken to those oil industry leaders- they have issued a statement wanting it to be known publicly that Trump has not spoken to them.

The US oil industries will not want to cover the costs of investment themselves in an unstable Venezuelan regime and will want guarantees from Trump. The US political regime can hardly be described as stable either, domestically or on the world stage. How will such guarantees go beyond Trump's term of office? US tax payers may not want to foot the oil companies' investment bill in Venezuela. The US oil companies thus will be VERY cautious. Trump is not a man of caution.

BlessedArt

ronib

There has not been a regime change in Venezuela. The ruling party continues under its new president. Bit pointless from one point of view…

Pointless call out, as Trump will not allow anyone there to be in charge if they oppose him like Maduro.

At this very moment in time groups of men on motorcycles are targeting Trump supporters .They are not allowing any dissent and the current leader still supports the return of Maduro. Meanwhile she has agreed to give him a large amount of oil .

Grandmabatty

As I've stated before, it's entirely possible to hold two different views on a related subject. You can deplore the actions of the president of Venezuela and his cabal towards his people while still deploring the actions of another president in invading Venezuela to illegally taking that president into custody. I wholeheartedly agree with Madeleine.

I agree with Madeleine too.

It's really ridiculous to leap from our disapproval of the US action in removing Maduro to accusing us of thinking that Maduro is a 'good guy'.

As I've stated before, it's entirely possible to hold two different views on a related subject. You can deplore the actions of the president of Venezuela and his cabal towards his people while still deploring the actions of another president in invading Venezuela to illegally taking that president into custody. I wholeheartedly agree with Madeleine.

Agree with you absolutely, madeleine.

I have no time for Maduro and it is good that he has gone.

But that is not the main point. Trump actually thinks that he has the right to go onto other sovereign countries lands, not in the least concerned with justice , fairness or helping people to get rid of dictators, but simply so that his greedy grabbing for Trump 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, with his little piggy eyes looking round for more countries and people he can use his bully boy tactics on.

I was in Greenland last summer and can assure you that of all the people I met and spoke to , none of them wanted Trump or the americans to have anything to do with their country.

To think that Trump has dementia is the kindest way you could consider his behaviour and his seeming to think that once he states he or USA wants something , he should then expect to be given it or use bullying tactics to take what is not his! His behaviour ranges from the toddler with a tantrum to the bully boy demanding other peoples things for no other reason that that he wants them. Anyone who considers themselves fair and decent should be doing everything in their power to stop him in his tracks right now. He only learns that he can continue with such behaviour if no one and nothing stops him or questions his actions.

The other reason for his action would seem to be to divert peoples attention from his own situation with lack of support for his own things.

If caring people and countries do not put together a plan to stop him, then he will continue on is selfish and dangerous ways and no doubt encourage others of his ilk to follow suit. I have lived through many difficult times and remember how things felt in the Bay of Pigs times, and have to say that the way this man is behaving now feels just as bad, if not worse as you cannot tell what crazy idea will come into his mind, and no one can predict his next move, apart from being certain that it will be to the benefit of D Trump.

BlessedArt

ronib

There has not been a regime change in Venezuela. The ruling party continues under its new president. Bit pointless from one point of view…

Pointless call out, as Trump will not allow anyone there to be in charge if they oppose him like Maduro.

The definition of regime change can include partial removal of leadership or administration. If a country with no rights or jurisdiction over another country forcibly removes its leader and annoints someone they like better, de facto that would appear to be regime change.

BlessedArt

David, TRUMP IS AN OPPRESSOR. He deserves the same fate you would have him bestow upon Maduro and anyone else.

You seem to think that white-majority western nations get to decide when poorer, resource-rich nations require regime changes while maintaining some weirdly hypocritical moral high ground. The rest of the world isn’t buying this imperialist fallacy anymore.

So you think Maduro is the good guy despite 8 million of his own people fleeing his persecution. How many have left the US persecuted by Trump, the reports I see is millions entering the US, a few illegal migrants left who should not have been there.

I remind you the sanctions against Maduro are backed by UK and most western countries, and we also deport illegal migrants.

The government of Venezuela is maintaining control internally, Rodriguez is being referred to as “Acting” President, what that means is not clear. The US seems to be controlling external affairs including oil with the cooperation of Venezuela.

It seems a Russian tanker breaking sanctions was turned away amid protests from Russia, no word on tankers from China visiting.

The oil companies are already on planes and Venezuela will send oil to the US, who will sell it at market price and "hold" the profit, to be controlled by Trump, so it will benefit the people of Venezuela.

Looks like he didn't have to wait long to profit.

foxie48

Japan is unusual because most of it's debt is not with foreign countries. It remains stable due to high domestic ownership of its debt, low interest rates, and cultural savings. This is not true of the US or most other countries.

Yes very high debt in Japan which has resulted in a plummeting exchange rate, much of that debt is QE used since around 2010

My point is that because the dollar is the primary reserve currency, it is protected in a way that other currencies are not. However, de-dollarisation eg using gold rather than the dollar for global transactions could threaten the dollar's dominance and together with it's high level of debt create financial instability.

Yes, I also read about the 'petrodollar' theory.

foxie48

Japan is unusual because most of it's debt is not with foreign countries. It remains stable due to high domestic ownership of its debt, low interest rates, and cultural savings. This is not true of the US or most other countries.

My point, which I didn't really make clear, is that US bond interest rates aren't particularly low. I've been looking at comparison with UK, Canada & Australia. Canada's is slightly lower than US, Australia and UK slightly higher.

I should also be clear that I'm looking at the relative cost of servicing the bonds. not the yield, which is an entirely different thing which makes no difference to a country's cost of servicing the bonds.

ronib

There has not been a regime change in Venezuela. The ruling party continues under its new president. Bit pointless from one point of view…

Pointless call out, as Trump will not allow anyone there to be in charge if they oppose him like Maduro.

Japan is unusual because most of it's debt is not with foreign countries. It remains stable due to high domestic ownership of its debt, low interest rates, and cultural savings. This is not true of the US or most other countries.

keeping their borrowing rate artificially lower than it would be for any other country with that level of debt.

Hmm.

Have you seen the Japanese debt to GDP ratio? 230% Interest rate on government bons around 1'5 to 2'5%?

US interest rate around 4%, Debt to GDP 125%

foxie48

David I'm not suggesting it will what I have written about is another reason for Trump's intervention in Venezuela which I don't think has been mentioned before. However, I think the "petrodollar" market which is estimated to be worth 2.5-3.5 trillion dollars is in a rather different league to the tourist paying for his hotel bill in dollars rather than the local currency etc. It gives the dollar stability and props up the US borrowing which is currently about 38.5 trillion dollars and represents somewhere nearly 125% of GDP keeping their borrowing rate artificially lower than it would be for any other country with that level of debt.

A growing rival to the dollar is the Chinese Yuan, many oil imports into China are paid in Petro Yuan, notably sanctioned states, even India pays for Russian oil in Yuan. All of this is strengthening China’s hand in the oil and financial markets, is that a good thing for western nations who rely on the US for stability.

The US is borrowing too much, to reduce that it’s either got to increase production or cut spending, that problem remains whether Trump is president or not

David I'm not suggesting it will what I have written about is another reason for Trump's intervention in Venezuela which I don't think has been mentioned before. However, I think the "petrodollar" market which is estimated to be worth 2.5-3.5 trillion dollars is in a rather different league to the tourist paying for his hotel bill in dollars rather than the local currency etc. It gives the dollar stability and props up the US borrowing which is currently about 38.5 trillion dollars and represents somewhere nearly 125% of GDP keeping their borrowing rate artificially lower than it would be for any other country with that level of debt.

foxie48

Venezuela sells it's oil to China, India and Russia at a discount and they usually pay in gold or some other non dollar way. There is a strong but complex link between oil prices, the petrodollar and the US economy, so part of this move by Trump is probably about forcing Venezuela to sell oil in petrodollars. Selling for gold weakens demand for the U.S. dollar and undermine its status as the global reserve currency which in turn affects it's borrowing capacity. Sorry this is the best way to describe it!

The supplier could sell in whatever means requested, gold, dollars, arms, wheat or anything else but it’s all got to relate to the reserve currency.
Being the reserve currency gives the dollar a lot of advantages, sellers trust it more than anything else, unless there is a need to avoid any sanctions against banks. This is where gold comes in it holds its value and is untraceable but vulnerable to theft.

Many countries have very weak currencies so commercial transactions are done in US Dollars even tourist activities, hotels etc you pay in $. Oil is just part of the global trade, most commodities including food are priced in $.

The US dollar is not immune to variation but until there is a more stable currency it’s the best we have got, honestly I don’t see that changing