Europe - dare we hope?

Fallingstar

FriedGreenTomatoes2

Europe is unprepared for war of any kind. It has happily lived off the back of US defence and US tax payers for years, now it has been found wanting, scared and it’s leadership is lost as to what to do.

Only Poland listened to Trump and have a credible defence.

I agree that we are lamentably unprepared and think for this reason is a good thing to bolster our defences in step with our European allies and stop looking to the US for help, forcing us all to look at our military weaknesses is perhaps the only good thing Trump has done. But in this new world order obviously this works two ways and Trump cannot then expect us to help out when he decides to go adventuring in the ME.

Poland is not well prepared to defend itself because the country ‘listened to Trump’, I have no idea where that idea came from?
Here is a potted history from AI of defence spending there.

Key Trends in Polish Defence Spending (Approx. 2000–2025):
2000–2014 (Stability): Spending remained consistently around the 1.8–2.0% of GDP mark, adhering to NATO standards as the military modernized following NATO accession in 1999.
2015–2021 (Rising Tensions): Following Russia's actions in Ukraine in 2014, spending began a slow increase, exceeding 2.1% by 2015.
2022–2025 (Massive Acceleration): Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Poland saw a massive increase in defense spending, with 2023 expenditures reaching 3.83% and rising further, making Poland one of the highest spenders in NATO relative to GDP.

Romola

I campaigned hard for Remain and was derided on this site for saying I cried all day when Leave won. The last ten years showed that my tears were for good reason, as I knew at the time.
I'm a member of the European Movement and do all I can to support closer ties with the EU and its associates. I hate being an alien from what is our wider Western heritage.

Me too. Still haven’t got over watching the vote unfold through the night. Or the fact that we’re still suffering economically from it but it’s still theelephantintheroom.

What are these 'open EU borders' that you see as a problem, Oreo?

FriedGreenTomatoes2

Natasha Hausdorff spell out the correct understanding of "international law" What we have now is the political falsified version.

This conflict is NOT illegal. But what is illegal, are the boats bringing migrants.

Western nations have become fat and lazy on peace, cheap money and welfare. There was always going to be an accounting. Well, Here it is.

Fully agree.

The too heavy price to pay would be open EU borders, so I don’t think we will be realigning any time soon.
Being part of Europe for defence purposes is another matter and we are, and should be.

Thanks to LemonJam for the expert exposition of the legal situation regarding asylum seekers, however they arrive.

Keir Starmer has been working hard for years to improve our relationship with the EU. Which is probably why there are so many people determined to find a way to remove him from office.

Smileless2012

We never left Europe; we left the EU.

😆
Even politicians get this wrong! I’ve heard John Major and Michael Hestletine slip up, and probably several more.

Great!
On a personal level I can't wait for the pet passport system to return, not sure if it will be this year?
They're going to get rid of that ridiculous AHC (Animal Health Certificate) which is required for each new journey. That's at least £500 a year better off I'll be! 🤞

Of course there are far more important agreements to be drawn up, but I'll take the above as a good start. 🐕 🐕

I agree with all those that say Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster. On the current, chaotic world stage, with a hollowed out defence budget and low growth we are in a severally weaker position than we would have been pre Brexit.

I campaigned hard for Remain and was derided on this site for saying I cried all day when Leave won. The last ten years showed that my tears were for good reason, as I knew at the time.
I'm a member of the European Movement and do all I can to support closer ties with the EU and its associates. I hate being an alien from what is our wider Western heritage.

We never left Europe; we left the EU.

I would like to be back with Europe again and in today’s climate I would hope Europe would be glad to have us back. If they do , it will be a very heavy price we have to pay.

FGT2 12.35

You will be able to google find many expert lawyers that can inform you of International Law as it pertains to "legally waging a war" and "seeking asylum"- as can we all..

Natasha Hausdorff is one commentator setting out her understanding of "international law", ie what circumstances are applicable to legitimately waging a war. For factual detail of what she said, including nuance and 'potential interpretations', not Youtube soundbites, see 6/3/26 "Is the War with Iran Legal? A top international lawyer explains' unwatchable.org.

Haussdorf dissects the legal realities of the ongoing conflict between Iran, Israel and the US and 'potential' interpretations of the law. There are many such commentators that have given competing understandings of the application of international war to the US/Israel Strike The nuance is in the detail. .You are welcome to your view that the Iran strike by US/Israel IS legal- there are many, many lawyers and others on the world stage who do not share your view.

At the end of the day the legalities of waging war are tested through international humanitarian law (IHL) primarily through the Geneva Conventions and Huge Conventions. The International Criminal Court (ICC) is one tribunal designed to prosecute individuals for war crime , genocide and crimes against humanity. In November 2024 the ICC issued arrest warrants against Netanyahu on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Netanyahu chooses not to cooperate. Netanyahu is no moral crusader when it comes to war crimes and genocide.

Regarding your understanding "what is illegal is boats bringing migrants". The law is much more nuanced than you state. Yes it is the case that the previous Conservative Government introduced a UK law that 'Entering the UK without prior permission (leave) is a criminal offence under UK immigration law, which includes arriving by boat via unapproved routes". However this UK legal situation can not supersede or ignore "International Law".

That is most people who arrive by boats across the channel are seeking 'asylum" under International Law as set out in the 1951 Refugee Convention. Under this International Law, asylum seekers are protected from penalty for their 'irregular entry', provided they present themselves to the authorities and their primary purpose is to seek protection. By law their claims must be considered by the UK government and they are allowed to stay in the country whist their claim is being considered. Thus asylum seekers of course are not prosecuted as the government would fail in their prosecution bid if they have presented as asylum seekers. They are only prosecuted when there are 'aggravating factors' such as breaking UK law during the period of processing their claims.

The same International Law pertaining to asylum seekers in the UK applies to all EU countries.

Natasha Hausdorff is hardly unbiased FGT and is entitled to her views although of course, most of the rest of the world's lawyers disagree with her (unless of course, they have links with Israel or Trump).

Completely agree. Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster.

FriedGreenTomatoes2

Europe is unprepared for war of any kind. It has happily lived off the back of US defence and US tax payers for years, now it has been found wanting, scared and it’s leadership is lost as to what to do.

Only Poland listened to Trump and have a credible defence.

I agree that we are lamentably unprepared and think for this reason is a good thing to bolster our defences in step with our European allies and stop looking to the US for help, forcing us all to look at our military weaknesses is perhaps the only good thing Trump has done. But in this new world order obviously this works two ways and Trump cannot then expect us to help out when he decides to go adventuring in the ME.

Natasha Hausdorff spell out the correct understanding of "international law" What we have now is the political falsified version.

This conflict is NOT illegal. But what is illegal, are the boats bringing migrants.

Western nations have become fat and lazy on peace, cheap money and welfare. There was always going to be an accounting. Well, Here it is.

Sanchez is useless.

Spain seem to have good ideas.

The peace dividend has allowed Europe to become bloated welfare states and to hide behind the nebulous concept of international law. The tide’s going out now and we can see who isn't wearing a swimming costume.

Poland has Russia as it's next door neighbour, I think if we had Russia as our NDN we'd have spent more money on defence and would have a much stronger military. fwiw Poland increased it's defence spending immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 not as a response to Trump.

Europe is unprepared for war of any kind. It has happily lived off the back of US defence and US tax payers for years, now it has been found wanting, scared and it’s leadership is lost as to what to do.

Only Poland listened to Trump and have a credible defence.

FriedGreenTomatoes2

Another echo chamber here so I won’t spoil it but leave you to the joy of agreeing with one another. 😁

Same here. Collaborate on defence by all means. It makes sense but I hope anything else is very carefully considered especially where Starmer is concerned with his dubious judgement and constant U-turns. It also makes a mockery of the referendum.

😁😁
Back later x