Andy Burnham has plan to return to Westminster ‘within weeks’. Allies sayGreater Manchester mayor said to have identified seats where MPs would step aside to allow leadership bid.

Thank you Lemonjam I feel quite hopeful after reading that.

BETFRED has Labour to win with Restore wrecking Reform's chances,

www.betfred.com/sports/politics/event/35403946

but I cant turn odds into numbers or percentages.

Thank you Wyllow3- I'm not a betting person but I know 1/3 is really good odds and better than Reform at 3/1.

Interesting to see the odds for Restore Britain splintering the Reform vote a bit also...

The Makerfield by election is a straight 2 horse race between Reform and Labour. I understand perfectly well why some of my countrymen would want to vote Restore, their tough talking is very appealing but talk is all it will be on this occasion.

A vote for Restore is a sure fire way of getting Andy Burnham as your next MP.
Makerfield!

That prospect alone tells you what you need to do, vote tactically….
Vote Reform.

Here's hoping people do vote tactically FGT2 🤞

From what I’ve been seeing, I think there will be some Reform water under the bridge before the election, which may well change the way people vote - we will see, but I won’t be surprised if Restore gain votes in the interim.

Well look at the support Tommy Robinson got on that ghastly demonstration in London - and those supporters may well chose Restore as being "purer and not corrupt"

After the 5 million in Farages pocket.

Restore's candidate certainly looks far more appealing and likely to be "clean" than Kenyon. tho stuff may come out.
www.restorebritain.org.uk/makerfield#:~:text=Message%20from%20Rupert%20Lowe,Rebecca

Stuff is out about Rupert Lowe already🧐

I think if there is stuff about any of them, the journalists and their opponents are digging very hard, and it will be headline after headline between now and 18th. I’m glad I don’t live there, whoever I supported, as it’s dirty politics.

I really think that Restore's abhorrent policies would be enough for voters to steer clear of them, but if they split the far right vote I'm quite content.

FriedGreenTomatoes2

The Makerfield by election is a straight 2 horse race between Reform and Labour. I understand perfectly well why some of my countrymen would want to vote Restore, their tough talking is very appealing but talk is all it will be on this occasion.

A vote for Restore is a sure fire way of getting Andy Burnham as your next MP.
Makerfield!

That prospect alone tells you what you need to do, vote tactically….
Vote Reform.

The two front runners are Burnham and Kenyon agreed.

However just as the Reform vote is being fractured by Restore Britain candidate just as the Labour vote will be fractured by the Green Party candidate.

That's politics for you. Your tactical message is that if Makerfield doesn't want Burnham as their MP forget about Restore and vote Reform. My tactical message is, if you don't want Kenyon as your MP forget about the Green Party and vote Labour.

I still give Burnham better odds for winning than Kenyon.

MaizieD

I really think that Restore's abhorrent policies would be enough for voters to steer clear of them, but if they split the far right vote I'm quite content.

Same👍

I have been doing a bit of interesting reading lately. So historically politics in the U.K. has always been a two horse race. But at the moment the centre of British politics seems to be falling apart. Absolutely no one can be sure who will win the next election, with votes now spread amongst about 5-6 parties.

Never has British politics been in so much flux, and the reason I think is the continual fall in our living standards with the government having less and less ability to meet our needs.

I realise that I am talking to a particular demographic here, but if you go down the age ranges they will know exactly what I am saying.

Something radical needs to happen, or nothing is going to stop this slid towards poverty for many and far less wealth amongst the middle classes.

I keep seeing things that other countries ( mainly Scandinavian ones) are doing to protect the environment ( ok I know Norway are still making money from oil but they do, I think, try to counteract it in other ways). And wonder why we don’t seem to be as proactive here ( although Labour are going to plant another national forest, another thing that isn’t getting much publicity).Why is there such apathy? Why can’t we all pull together to make the country better for everyone and everything. Like the old Keep Britain’s tidy campaigns etc. We are a nation that pulls together in times of crisis and we are in one now. Any energy seems to be channelled negatively .

Eg everyone is moaning about the new recycling initiative in which kitchen waste now goes into a separate bin to garden waste but will be collected each week instead of fortnightly. I’m over the moon about it as I don’t have a garden compost heap ( would love one but had a rat problem when I attempted it and also my garden isn’t really big enough). I did point out that, if people had time to browse social media and moan about it they had time to make an effort, for the sake of the planet, to recycle as much as possible.

I think though MayBee that society is less cohesive now because od so many benefit claimers and those in work feel they are being taxed until the pips squeak while others (many millions) manage a comfortable lifestyle without having to work (unless they buy and sell on EBay which I’ve heard can be quite lucrative) or a cash in hand job for a mate.

It was ever thus but has become so much worse and resentment is kicking in.

FriedGreenTomatoes2

I think though MayBee that society is less cohesive now because od so many benefit claimers and those in work feel they are being taxed until the pips squeak while others (many millions) manage a comfortable lifestyle without having to work (unless they buy and sell on EBay which I’ve heard can be quite lucrative) or a cash in hand job for a mate.

It was ever thus but has become so much worse and resentment is kicking in.

Methinks that attitude is part of the problem, though?

So FGT, aren’t immigrants causing resentment now, but instead it’s the millions ‘living a comfortable lifestyle’ on benefits?

Or are both groups causing resentment?

That sort of practice does go on, FGT: however I think its reasonable to ask you to provide some kind of evidence as to the numbers you allude to.

Could I also ask, if it is the case, surely many Reform voters are involved too? Or are you actually telling me they are special and never sell anything on e bay or do "Cash in hand" jobs? That they think this is just fine?

I only actually know one, a local window cleaner, who most definitely belongs to both categories, works totally out of hand cash, not mine (we had a political set too a while back, over a poster, not about cash of course, but voting Reform as it was immigrants taking over the country etc etc at all.

How do many of these millions manage a comfortable life stye without working?

How many millions are you talking about that don't work but manage a comfortable life style?

If you are talking about those who receive UK welfare benefits- if you strip out those on state pensions, the disabled, those deemed too sick and unable to work, those on Universal Credit who earn low wages and the UC is a top up and the 1 million Neets who very much want to work- how many millions are left?

But then on the other hand if you ensure those that do have a comfortable life style, pay the same proportion of their taxed income as PAYE employees that would be good and stop high levels of resentment.

I include Farage, Tice et al in this group.

But then on the other hand if you ensure those that do have a comfortable life style, pay the same proportion of their taxed income as PAYE employees that would be good and stop high levels of resentment. I include Farage, Tice et al in this group

Hear, hear LemonJam👏👏👏

I agree, Lemonjam, but I also think that those working on minimum wage and paying high rents and childcare costs have every right to resent the fact that people getting free housing and benefits for not working.

I think it’s unfair that people who haven’t worked get pension credit. I don’t want to think that, but hearing smug comments about working mothers, and getting up in the dark to go to work for decades knowing that those making the comments are in bed, when we paid two lots of tax and NI to their one, as well as nursery/nanny expenses to do so has hardened my thoughts, particularly as it’s the fact that the pension bill has to cover non-contributing people as well as those of us who paid in that threatens the triple lock and might lead to means testing (so non-contributors get more than those who have made the pension possible).

Someone working to support a family should always be better off than someone who doesn’t. Yes, there should be support for the sick and for carers for the sick, but IMO not for those who just opt out because they choose to stay at home. Doing so is their choice, but the choice should be made in the knowledge that it won’t grant them a lifetime of state support.

I don’t blame immigrants for any of that though, so I would never vote Reform. I blame decades of increasing entitlement that has eroded any semblance of community accountability.

Great post there Doodledog. I know two parents who have two neurodiverse children. Their needs are recognised by school, parents work closely with school, as well as helping the children by good parenting. If the parents were claiming benefits including the additional benefits they could claim, their income would be about £72,000. They both work and their combined income less than that.

My working life exposed me to benefit fraud. We now have families where four generations have never worked. I’m no Reform or Conservative voter but I’m in no doubt there’s something very wrong when being out of work brings more disposable income than work

Brilliant post Doodledog