Andy Burnham won Makerfield

Doodledog

Well, I’m sad it’s clear me to this, but given that it did, I’m pleased with the result. I think Starmer is a decent man who has been vilified by the media in all their forms from day 1. He didn’t handle comms well, whereas Burnham will. It says a lot about the population that media hostility has affected things so much, particularly given that Starmer said at the start that there would be no quick fixes after 14 years of Tory mismanagement, but that’s the world we’re living in.

I wish Burnham well, and also hope that Starmer is given a role he feels he can accept. I would like to see him as Foreign Secretary, but David Milliband is being mooted for that, it seems. If he can ‘do a Cameron’ and get into the HoL he could be made a Secretary of State. Time will tell, I suppose.

I agree, though I expect the mainstream and social media guns will be aimed at any new PM too just as soon as the honeymoon period is over and it becomes apparent to the public that no leader can please everyone.

Andy Burnham has already shown this by publicly supporting the WASPI women during the hustings.

I have long supported the campaign. And I feel uncomfortable when politicians were all holding up that sort of banner and then it got into government and didn’t do anything. So I stick by the campaigns that I support. I stuck by the Hillsborough families. I’ll stick by the Waspi women because they deserve some recompense for the unfairness.

This was hastily followed by a statement from his team clarifying that this didn’t mean he would pay the compensation the Ombudsman says should be paid, and that he considered the compensation case closed. There was a hint that there might just be earlier access to a free bus pass. An empty gesture as most WASPIs are now of an age to have these anyway.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of this particular cause, it does illustrate that should he succeed in his ambition to be top dog, Burnham would be under exactly the same restraints that have shackled Starmer.

Sarnia I also think you’ll find Adult and Children social care, by a large margin, take up a huge percentage of council budgets.

I’m not disagreeing with you that we need much better and available SEND provision, countrywide, for all children.

Let the games begin. 🤗

LemonJam

Starmer is a lawyer and has long career experience calculating evidence and likelihood of conviction success and planning his defence accordingly.

The emphatic vote share Burnham won ( more than all the other parties put together) will weigh on him over the weekend. He knows what's coming. He likely will realise in that context of Andy's vote share, his likelihood of success in winning a leadership contest is low and doesn't match the CPS 51% threshold to prosecute an argument. Thats how his mid will work. We've yet to see how his emotions play out and whEther they overtake reality.

I hope his desire to serve (as F SEC by negotiation) overcomes his determination to hold onto PM role and avoid a leadership contest. We will know after the weekend.

🙏🙏🙏🤞🤞🤞

Sarnia

Cossy
It isn't a case of magicking up money, as you put it. SEND children who attend private specialist schools but have parents who cannot afford the fees have to fight and I do mean fight, their local education authority for them to name the appropriate school and by doing so pick up the bill for the fees. Many County Councils are on the brink financially due to having to pay SEND fees which are increasing at an alarming rate. Bankruptcy is very near for some of them. I firmly believe that every mainstream school should have specialist teachers and resources in place so that, no matter what a child's needs are, so they can access an education at their local school. Sadly neither the Tories or Labour have thought this a sensible step. So, in the meantime, SEND children with moderate to severe issues battle for specialist private school places with many parents struggling to find fee increases.

Think you’re completing missing the point.

6% of school age children attend independent schools, of that 6% approx 1 quarter are children with SEND. But that does include those children that are not in mainstream independent schools, but SEND private schools.

My point is that great SEND educations should be available to to all children who need it.

So I’m guessing we are in agreement there.

In our local area we have at least three state SEND schools, and a good few state primaries with good SEND provision and nurture hubs.

One of the issues, as I see it, is SEND covers such a huge area of children from the physically disabled, mentally disabled, autistic, learning disabilities (etc) and then within those areas children have such a wide range of needs, for example child A may have mobility disabilities but no issues in other areas, and child B may have similar mobility disabilities and severe learning disabilities. I agree it’s a minefield.

I agree that parents and children deserve not have to fight for a specialised school place, I just don’t believe that privately funded provision (wherever the funding comes from) should be available for a small percentage of SEND children and not the vast majority.

I believe that good state provision for all SEND children should be available.

In that scenario I wonder what Streeting would do? If the PM resigns, constitutionally there has to be a contest, but he could jeopardise his own future chances if he stands against Burnham, knowing he can’t win. All very interesting - it could be a painless transition in the end.

Starmer is a lawyer and has long career experience calculating evidence and likelihood of conviction success and planning his defence accordingly.

The emphatic vote share Burnham won ( more than all the other parties put together) will weigh on him over the weekend. He knows what's coming. He likely will realise in that context of Andy's vote share, his likelihood of success in winning a leadership contest is low and doesn't match the CPS 51% threshold to prosecute an argument. Thats how his mid will work. We've yet to see how his emotions play out and whEther they overtake reality.

I hope his desire to serve (as F SEC by negotiation) overcomes his determination to hold onto PM role and avoid a leadership contest. We will know after the weekend.

Cossy
It isn't a case of magicking up money, as you put it. SEND children who attend private specialist schools but have parents who cannot afford the fees have to fight and I do mean fight, their local education authority for them to name the appropriate school and by doing so pick up the bill for the fees. Many County Councils are on the brink financially due to having to pay SEND fees which are increasing at an alarming rate. Bankruptcy is very near for some of them. I firmly believe that every mainstream school should have specialist teachers and resources in place so that, no matter what a child's needs are, so they can access an education at their local school. Sadly neither the Tories or Labour have thought this a sensible step. So, in the meantime, SEND children with moderate to severe issues battle for specialist private school places with many parents struggling to find fee increases.

Agree Wyllow3- Starmer would be well placed as Foreign Secretary to continue alliance relationships he has nurtured. He says country comes before personal ambition- he could serve the country well still in that role.

I am not sure that Starmer will give up the fight that easily. But I may be misjudging him.

Eek, posted too soon.

"I'm still open to see what happens next but if Burham did take the leadership:

I see no reason why Starmer should not have Foreign Secretary. I dont see him as a grudge person. Alliances come and go.
It's not currently a job that has a lot of power - but it very much could be. He likes whizzing round the world and would be a respected and known figure.

This is Andy Burnham's victory speech

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c3928mlyle8t

Its quite long but you get a flavour of the man.

Its no good saying "well labour had the seat anyway"

It's massive a win like this, in an area that has a great deal of "red Wall" voters and huge Brexit % vote.

I'd still open to see what happens next but if Burhanm did take the leadership

I see no reason why Starmer should not have Foreign Secretary. I sent see him as a grudge person. Alliances come and go.
It's not currently a job that has a lot of power - but it very much could be.

Lemonjam completely agree.

I can understand the people of Aberdeen South voting to keep the oil industry going, but the Conservatives aren't in a position to do that for them.

I don't know about Makerfield wanting to see Starmer off - I can't see into other people's minds, but it felt to me that Burnham is very much respected there. I could well be wrong though.

MartavTaurus

Good post Cossy. I agree that Starmer has proved himself as a potential Foreign Secretary, although I can't see that happening now.
He did lose a bit of brilliance this week at the Évian G7, however, because Macron completely stole the show as The Boss. (Well that's how it is being reported in France, anyway).
Now, there's a man who can have the right personality at home and abroad!

Absolutely agree and thank you too

My opinion is that Makerfield voted to see Starmer off and that Aberdeen South voted for opening up the oil.
I don’t think either election was a vote for party.

David49

MartavTaurus

VAT on school fees was a proposal that was considered during the Cameron/Clegg coalition government. If I remember, it was Liz Truss who was against it, but it wasn't dismissed out of hand. Then Brexit took over.

Cameron may have considered VAT on schools as a sop to Clegg but it was never a real prospect.

As for a leadership change,
The very last thing the nation needs is a government fighting itself, change quickly, don't hang it out and continue the arguments for another 6 months.

Have a leadership vote now!, either back Starmer or sack him, Burnham has the momentum and if he unites the party that will be a big advance.

Agree with David49. The Conservatives had 14 years to put vAT on school fees if they chose- but chose not to throughout.

Best scenario now if Starmer stands down voluntarily, perhaps negotiating for Foreign Secretary role where he would be ideally placed. I would be delighted- yet surprised if he does that.

Streeting has already indicated he will go for a leadership bid if Starmer does not stand down- as early as next week. I expect and hope it will be not be a long drawn out process. We are heading for summer recess anyway where parliament will be on a break. Ideal that this is done and dusted so on return the new PM is in post- ideal.

“Sarnia

OldFrill
MartavTaurus
I don't think that's true. The Conservatives would never have put VAT on school fees,

And that is not true either. We can't say that about VAT on school fees. I'm not sure that the Tories wouldn't have done this too at some point. There were a lot of people in the Conservative party who would have gone along with it. There are no certainties.
They Conservatives had long enough to put VAT on school fees, fairly obvious it wasn't going to happen.
I think the Tories would have thought that through much more than Labour did. They assumed that all children at private schools have very wealthy parents who would not blink an eye at the 20% VAT increase. Fair enough. However, there are many SEND children who attend private schools purely because this country's mainstream education system has failed them. The vast majority of them do not have rich parents. Labour's refusal to listen has resulted in many SEND children having to go back into mainstream education which has already failed them, because their families cannot afford the increase. Cruel really.“

Is this cruel? Or is it cruel that the majority of SEND children still don’t have access to decent SEND provision?

I’m afraid your assertion that a large proportion of independent schools contain many SEND children whose parents are not in any way wealthy, but have somehow magicked up the cash required to send their children to independent schools because the SEND provision is somehow better.

I’d argue this point, 1) average independent primary school fees (pre VAT) are between £13,000-£15,000 per year, uplift this by around 30% to include uniforms, school trips etc and these figures would exclude most average families choosing to enrol their SEND in independent education. Secondary education in the independent sector is even more expensive.

2) is the SEND provision really any better, or is it just more accessible due to much smaller classes and access to more 1-2-1 education?

What happens if you have more than more SEND child in your family? Not at all unusual?

Far far better to fight for bigger school budgets and more SENCO’s (Special Educational Needa Co-Ordinators), more specialised Higher-Level teaching assistants, more nurture hubs, within our mainstream state schools, as well as additional SEND schools and after school and holiday clubs.

My daughter works in year 1, in a large 4 class entry primary school, in a deprived area, most schools of this type in similar areas have more than their fair share of SEND children, who come from chaotic homes and a large percentage of these children have emotional needs due to their unfortunate family circumstances.

There’s no way in this world, VAT or not VAT, these parents could even think about sending their children to independent schools.

Better, more equal, more accessible education across the UK is what we should strive for, more young people encouraged to enter teaching, better prospects and better training for teachers.

ALL children deserve an education which suits their needs, not just the chosen few.

Good post Cossy. I agree that Starmer has proved himself as a potential Foreign Secretary, although I can't see that happening now.
He did lose a bit of brilliance this week at the Évian G7, however, because Macron completely stole the show as The Boss. (Well that's how it is being reported in France, anyway).
Now, there's a man who can have the right personality at home and abroad!

Come to this! Autocarrot is getting worse😡

It was already a Labour seat so no difference apart from potentially promoting Burnham

MartavTaurus

VAT on school fees was a proposal that was considered during the Cameron/Clegg coalition government. If I remember, it was Liz Truss who was against it, but it wasn't dismissed out of hand. Then Brexit took over.

Cameron may have considered VAT on schools as a sop to Clegg but it was never a real prospect.

As for a leadership change,
The very last thing the nation needs is a government fighting itself, change quickly, don't hang it out and continue the arguments for another 6 months.

Have a leadership vote now!, either back Starmer or sack him, Burnham has the momentum and if he unites the party that will be a big advance.

Well, I’m sad it’s clear me to this, but given that it did, I’m pleased with the result. I think Starmer is a decent man who has been vilified by the media in all their forms from day 1. He didn’t handle comms well, whereas Burnham will. It says a lot about the population that media hostility has affected things so much, particularly given that Starmer said at the start that there would be no quick fixes after 14 years of Tory mismanagement, but that’s the world we’re living in.

I wish Burnham well, and also hope that Starmer is given a role he feels he can accept. I would like to see him as Foreign Secretary, but David Milliband is being mooted for that, it seems. If he can ‘do a Cameron’ and get into the HoL he could be made a Secretary of State. Time will tell, I suppose.

Cossy

GemmaMack

But it’s a great result for Andy Burnham and a huge blow to Reform

I agree there, however, the leadership challenge will divide the party and cause fiscal instability.

His “pledges” are really not a lot different from Starmer, and look what happened to half of those?

What is really like to see is Starmer staying where he is, and Burnham appointed as Chancellor and his deputy.

I don’t like this whole shenanigans of someone stepping down to allow Burnham to stand and then call a leadership contest.

Starmer won’t step down quietly, rightly or wrongly it appears he feels he was given 5 years to do a job and get results and is only being allowed two years.

Frankly it’s a mess.

I’m very very glad that Burnham saw off Reform and his victory does send a clear message about national politics, but, for me, it leaves a sour taste in my mouth.

Only time will tell.

I haven’t liked Burnham’s tactics either. I do think though that in an era where the cult of personality in politics is the vote winner rather than delivering against the manifesto, Burnham stands far more chance of success than Starmer ever could, because fundamentally the electorate as a whole doesn’t like Starmer as a personality, whereas Burnham is a ‘man of the people’. I think Starmer still has a lot to offer, I would like to see him remain as part of the government, he’d make a great foreign secretary.

I worry that the same 'excitement' about change that now seems to exist around Burnham, only five minutes ago surrounded Starmer ( and I voted for Starmer) , I don't think anything of it is real or meaningful.
I have depressed myself now.