I have a feeling both Cleverly and Patel are biding their time, returning to the back benches so they can concentrate on constituency matters and whatever else they say they want to do for a couple of years.
There is no guarantee Cleverly will be selected as the Tory candidate for London Mayor.
All party leaders fall out of favour sooner or later. Badenoch, who I really do think could start an argument in an empty room, will be no exception.
Cleverly almost won the party leadership but for some bungled voting in the later stages. He may be looking at what happened with Starmer and Burnham and think he will have another crack at the leadership after a term as London mayor, were he to receive the nomination and win. (I doubt he would win if Khan stands again.)
If he loses, two years will have gone by anyway and only one year out from a full term General Election. The political landscape is sure to be very different by then.
Whether Reform will still exist much longer remains to be seen but for now they are a threat to both Cleverly’s and Patel’s Essex seats as Reform ratchet up the divisive rhetoric over RAF Wethersfield. That has to be a priority, to be seen to be a decent constituency MP, something that takes a back seat for ministers, even shadow ones.
Reform are also objecting to the reorganisation into unitary authorities which is supposed to be taking place in the county. Orders from Farage. It’s doubtful they would win a judicial review to halt this. Meantime, they are seriously jeopardising the timetable that had been set. Both MPs need to put some work in locally to address these issues and liaise with Rayner else local government in Essex is going to end up in even more disarray than Reform are causing in other councils they control.
