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Preparing for No Deal

(194 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-19 17:39:03

Well it seems that this is firmly back on the table, which will thrill some and horrify others.

What does no deal mean though?

It means leaving on the 31 October and beginning at ground zero. We will immediately enter WTO rules in all our trading activities throughout the world which means we will have to comply with our WTO schedule listing the tariffs with which we must comply.
We have said that we wouldn’t charge tariffs on most goods coming from the EU, but I am unclear how we could apply that rule to just the EU as surely we must comply with the most favoured nation, which means we must apply the same standards to every country?
However, our businesses who export will have tariffs imposed on their products making them less competitive than other businesses who trade under various trade agreements. Many farmers are expected to go out of business and where possible other businesses will move to the EU. We are seeing this process already.
The EU will of course immediately set up checks at the border.

Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-19 17:46:08

Our biggest export is in services making up about 80% of our export income. They will be hit the hardest.

The challenge now is that as a much smaller market the U.K. will not be in such a good position in negotiating trade deals with the world.

Apparently some think this is a good thing

Elvive Wed 12-Jun-19 17:48:27

so weary with all this. Hat's off though WW, if you can comprehend it and keep up with it.

Gonegirl Wed 12-Jun-19 17:49:13

I don't see how we can prepare for it. We can't set up new trading deals until we have cut the ties with the EU.

What do you suggest?

Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-19 17:55:00

I don’t suggest anything gonegirl what I mean by preparing is informing myself and anyone else who is interested.

elvive honestly I feel just the same, but it’s my future, my children and grandchildren that are going to be affected so I can’t give up can I?

Day6 Wed 12-Jun-19 18:10:31

I am not an economist. I am not a fortune teller. I cannot see into the future.

However, I am sure every business which exports has had plenty of time to explore alternative ways of trading with the world and the EU.

I would put money on your outlook being a gloomy, worst case scenario vision too WhitewaveMk2 hmm

There are as many sources agreeing that the UK will trade successfully (under WTO regs) if we leave with no deal as there are reports (from Remainer rags) claiming everything is going to be awful. It really depends on your outlook as to which scenario you'll believe.

If you want cheering up however, Google Investment in the UK is booming and see how many reports there are of foreign economists and investors having a faith in the UK which so many Remainers refuse to contemplate or acknowledge.

Google UK exports are booming too, and see the unexpected rude good health of UK markets, home and abroad.

EllanVannin Wed 12-Jun-19 18:10:32

We're in for a bumpy ride I know that much.

kittylester Wed 12-Jun-19 18:14:46

Day6, no-one wants to read articles like that. It will spoil things.

Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-19 18:15:26

No day6 that is not my scenario. Nor is it from a remainer rag as you so eloquently describe it.

Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-19 18:24:09

By all means day6 do outline the good news post Brexit - god knows we need it.

Davidhs Wed 12-Jun-19 18:25:01

The UK can of course apply whatever tariffs and whatever inspections on imports that it chooses and initially a lot will have to be waved through.
Our Export tariffs will depend on the receiving country and that cannot be predicted, which must be hell for exporters - how do you price anything.

The problem for farmers is that the present system that guarantees traceability, environmental standards, welfare standards, safety and employment standards and food hygiene cost a great deal. Opening markets to lower standard imports will make production uneconomical.

jura2 Wed 12-Jun-19 18:26:58

Day6 'However, I am sure every business which exports has had plenty of time to explore alternative ways of trading with the world and the EU. '

I am so sorry, but I have to say this is absolute nonsense. Individual are totally dependent on Trade Deals and guaranteed supply chains, and the ability to import and export with low tariffs, etc, etc. They cannot plan in a vacuum.

Day6 Wed 12-Jun-19 18:31:32

Oh and I must paste this, from the Spectator. It says so much about those forecasters (some in high office, like the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney) who predicted an economic melt-down for the UK because voters had the temerity to want the UK out of the EU.

Their predictions of a complete crash of the UK economy were way off the mark - completely and embarrassingly inaccurate.

The UK economy, riddled with Brexit anxieties, is in rude good health.

This piece says it all.

"Lack of trust in economic forecasts is hardly surprising. In recent years, they have seemed little better than horoscopes: the crash was missed, then all kinds of horror was predicted after the Brexit vote when, in fact, economic growth accelerated."

"The Treasury’s now-infamous warning, issued in May 2016, that GDP could fall by up to 6 per cent and unemployment soar by up to 800,000 in the first two years after a Brexit vote, will be studied by generations of economists as an example of hubris."

It is the economic equivalent of the Iraq dossier, something that will damage government forecasting credibility for years to come.

I am optimistic that No Deal is now our best option for exiting the UK. I also believe the 5th biggest economy in the world will survive the turbulence that comes with trading under WTO regulations instead of ones imposed by the EU which have stifled growth.

Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-19 18:32:30

The U.K. exports 44% of its goods with the EU. Changing from EUrukes to WTO rules will be enormous.
The WTO’s director general said that “it won’t be the end of the world for the U.K..... but neither is it going to be a walk in the park.

The UK won’t have to join up to the WTO post Brexit as it is already a member under EU auspices. But it will have to agree a new list of tariffs and quotas. This will almost certainly be harde4 than it sounds.
One of the proposals is that the U.K. and EU split up the quotas that they have already negotiated, but there will be complaints from around the world. Indeed the USA has already registered quite a few, and until we can satisfy these complaints we can’t begin to trade in these areas including beef, lamb and sugar. Our farmers are in for a very bumpy ride.

Day6 Wed 12-Jun-19 18:40:11

I know Kitty. I really must take off my rose-tinted specs and do something sensible like building a reinforced bunker in the back garden before we exit the EU. I am very silly believing we will not only survive, but prosper too if we trade under WTO regulations.


Gonegirl Wed 12-Jun-19 18:44:29

But it will take a while to actually set deals up. And we're not allowed to start doing it until we have left!

There will be a period when nothing can actually happen.

Elvive Wed 12-Jun-19 18:46:26

I was so stressed I added an apostrophe. Really bad times.

crystaltipps Wed 12-Jun-19 18:46:42

All Brexit supporters can say is “it won’t be awful” - no Brexit supporters can tell us what benefits will be coming our way to make it worth forcing half the country to give up their freedoms they’ve already got as EU citizens , creating all this vitriol, costing billions and threatening jobs. . If they could point to some concrete advantages we would be enjoying then they might persuade remain supporters that it would be worth supporting the idea.

Gonegirl Wed 12-Jun-19 18:49:12

read this and panic

Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-19 18:51:57

The big elephant in the room of course is Northern Ireland.

Brexiters have assured us that it is quite possible to have an invisible border, but even the most advanced border controls in the world which are Norway and Sweden, with much of the work being done before the goods cross the border, but this doesn’t stop checks. About 1300 lorries are checked at one Norwegian border, each taking approx. 20 minutes.

This explains Kent and the M26 along with other areas in the South becoming lorry parks. Pollution is going to become an issue i would have thought.

However in spite of all that the GFA will undoubtedly be broken if the U.K. continues with this. A major and terrifying issue.

Elvive Wed 12-Jun-19 18:52:37

Please somebody tell me what will be good about a new arrangement?

Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-19 18:53:16

gonegirl ☹️

Whitewavemark2 Wed 12-Jun-19 19:01:33

As we stand at the moment the U.K. has no signed trade deals. The Trade Minister has told a select committee that rolling over some of our EU trade deals with other countries is going to be extremely difficult and in some cases absolutely impossible.

There is a reason that we want trade deals and that is because they will all be better than WTO rules, but unfortunately that is what we will have to trade under for unspecified years whilst we negotiate.

Day6 Wed 12-Jun-19 19:07:06

no Brexit supporters can tell us what benefits will be coming our way to make it worth forcing half the country to give up their freedoms they’ve already got as EU citizens

Which freedoms exactly will YOU be giving up? Most of us can remember life before the Common Market.

We are (hopefully) ending an exclusive and limiting trading arrangement and much of the jurisdiction Brussels has over the UK and other member states. EU laws which benefit us have been enshrined in UK law.

We are not going backwards, but forwards. We are throwing off a yoke and will still be European but gaining the freedom to determine our own future in terms of trade and commerce.

When I travel to Vienna and Budapest in 2020 - ie Europe, because I am a European who likes to travel the continent - it's booked - I'll detail just how not being in a restrictive trading bloc impinges on my enjoyment. hmm

Anyone would think the UK was going to be wrapped in impenetrable barbed wire because we will, hopefully, be breaking ties with Brussels.

Gonegirl Wed 12-Jun-19 19:10:05

Maybe the only answer to the Irish border problem is, give N. Ireland back to the Irish. And that would be diabolical after all the bloodshed of the Troubles.