Who do you believe: Sunak or the IMF?

I read a long article on Sunday about people still desperately trying to rejoin the EU, which is the purpose of your post.

Sunak isn't an economist. He was a Hedge Fund manager. He is just going along with the toriy's belief in small state and the myth that deficits are Bad.

The IMF said years ago that Osborne's 'austerity' programme was, at the least, overdone. But tories don't learn anything from history.

The IMF are correct.

Trouble is, Labour don't appear to be any better; though they might just be keeping the MSM happy until they win the next GE.

Germany also expected to go into a recession.

I think it suits the narrative for the IMF to pit us against the government. I don’t think the IMF is that reliable. Just a gut response.

The IMF is more reliable than our government which is pushing us hard and fast into recession.

Reuters.com 30 January
German economy unexpectedly shrinks in W4, reviving spectre of recession. Q4 equals GDP at -0.2 per cent.
Also Italy?

Q4 not W4

At the end of the day, it doesn't matter, we are talking forecasts for one year only. 2022 we did better than most, thingsare expected to be better in 2024.

A report came out today /www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-64453200saying, essentially, that BBC reporters and pundits are economically illiterate and seek comfort by all thinking the same.

As an economist, I have known this for years, I regularily, metaphoritcally throw a shoe at my radio as yet another BBC reporter asks yet anther stupid question because they do not understand what they are being told.

If we are to avoid a recession energy prices need to get back to sensible levels, interest rates need to fall, even nominally so that some confidence returns.
The “wildcard” is, what happens in Ukraine

CvD66, Does it matter if we are awake when the May elections happen? How can we rely on anyone from any party we elect to tell the truth or keep the promises they make? How many people do you think understand the complexities of economics and politics? Maybe you can explain in simple English why our country is in so much debt,well over a trillion with 26 billion yearly interest. What political group let that happen? Maybe don't answer as I'm just an ordinary Nanny who's never been to Uni.

1987nanny Local elections are more about the political parties in your area who are out and about pointing at potholes, talking about improving local services, campaigning on improving hospital buildings etc. You can usually access your local councillors and the mayor if you have one. If there’s a majority group in power at the council, I don’t think a vote here or there will influence the outcome. You might want to be involved or not. Sometimes you meet a friend on the way to the ballot station or you can ask for a postal vote.
I tend to separate the local elections from the main government issues. Generally local councillors are well intentioned although limited in their powers over planning and housing numbers. Hope that helps.

1987H2001M2002Inanny

CvD66, Does it matter if we are awake when the May elections happen? How can we rely on anyone from any party we elect to tell the truth or keep the promises they make? How many people do you think understand the complexities of economics and politics? Maybe you can explain in simple English why our country is in so much debt,well over a trillion with 26 billion yearly interest. What political group let that happen? Maybe don't answer as I'm just an ordinary Nanny who's never been to Uni.

Debt is £2.4 trillion equal to £35000 per person in Uk.
It’s easy enough to while away the hours on Google. I don’t know if it helps our good mental health to worry about the economy and am looking forward to warmer days.

1987H2001M2002Inanny

CvD66, Does it matter if we are awake when the May elections happen? How can we rely on anyone from any party we elect to tell the truth or keep the promises they make? How many people do you think understand the complexities of economics and politics? Maybe you can explain in simple English why our country is in so much debt,well over a trillion with 26 billion yearly interest. What political group let that happen? Maybe don't answer as I'm just an ordinary Nanny who's never been to Uni.

Easy answer successive governments have been borrowing for the last 50yrs to give us the standard of living we “want”, rather than the standard of living we “earn”.

ronib yes, I'm a L Party member and most of it is not about national issues, there is a lot about buses and repairs to social housing properties and so on, benefits and calls for help/advice food banks at times.

Nationally, whether you believe the IMF is totally accurate, its good enough for me to believe that we are heading into trouble and the sooner we get better trading relationships with EU partners (not suggesting reversing Brexit, but customs and standards bE in line etc) the better we are likely to do.

I know this article is old but I don’t think anything has changed within the IMF.

www.heritage.org/europe/report/russias-meltdown-anatomy-the-imf-failure

Katie59

1987H2001M2002Inanny

CvD66, Does it matter if we are awake when the May elections happen? How can we rely on anyone from any party we elect to tell the truth or keep the promises they make? How many people do you think understand the complexities of economics and politics? Maybe you can explain in simple English why our country is in so much debt,well over a trillion with 26 billion yearly interest. What political group let that happen? Maybe don't answer as I'm just an ordinary Nanny who's never been to Uni.

Easy answer successive governments have been borrowing for the last 50yrs to give us the standard of living we “want”, rather than the standard of living we “earn”.

Easy answer, but wrong.

Would you seriously want the government to return to you ('you' generally, not you specifically, Katie ) all the money you've spent buying premium bonds (some pretty large amounts I gather from old threads). Or would you like it to redeem all the bonds held by pension funds or investment management companies that contribute to your incomes?

Because that is what 'repaying the debt' would involve.

Incidentally, the UK and its predecessors, have been running on deficits for hundreds of years; it's very rarely been in surplus.

And as most of our money (bar foreign earnings) comes to us from the government I'm not too sure where Katie thinks we're going to 'earn' it....

MerylStreep

I know this article is old but I don’t think anything has changed within the IMF.

www.heritage.org/europe/report/russias-meltdown-anatomy-the-imf-failure

I think forecasting is rather different from making bad lending decisions.

The accuracy of IMF forecasts has preoccupied researchers for some time. Quick google.

Don’t assume that it’s accurate.
In fact if anyone wants to do some looking, it’s interesting to ask why it might not be accurate. I shall pass.

The IMF have got their predictions wrong quite a few times before (particularly in the case of the UK, says a Radio 4 presenter).

ronib

The accuracy of IMF forecasts has preoccupied researchers for some time. Quick google.

Don’t assume that it’s accurate.
In fact if anyone wants to do some looking, it’s interesting to ask why it might not be accurate. I shall pass.

So it may be even worse than they predict?

No .. it’s always better

The accuracy of any forecasting is bound to be questionable. Our own government agencies can be mistaken, too.

But dissing the IMF isn't going to improve our economic mess...

I think there's a lot of straw clutching going on here 😆

ronib

No .. it’s always better

Here's the link to a comparison for 2010-2015, the IMF predicted lower growth than actually occurred expect for Saudi Arabia and Turkey

mishtalk.com/economics/imf-growth-forecast-vs-reality

FT April 9 2018 Romeo and Fray
IMF shows poor track record at forecasting recessions.
Recessions are not rare. What is rare is a recession that is forecast in advance.
Also the IMF sometimes gets the countries wrong .