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Who do you believe: Sunak or the IMF?

(206 Posts)
CvD66 Tue 31-Jan-23 12:57:46

The IMF have identified that the UK is the only G7 economy to shrink in 2023, falling behind even Russia.
A leading Tory boss calls Brexit a ‘complete disaster’ and was ‘total lies’ claiming Johnson threw the NHS under the bus.
Today’s business reports include a 4% shrinkage in long-run productivity relative to remaining in the EU, (the Office for Budget Responsibility), inflation and energy prices higher than in the EU, trade has fallen by almost a fifth. Brexit has raised food prices by 6% says the LSE. Yet Sunak tells us to rely on trade deals where we’ve sold our farmers down the river (Australia) and will raise GDP by less than 0.1% a year by 2035! He refers to Freeports as a Brexit advantage, yet UK had 7 Freeports in 1984 and chose to phase them out in 2012!
With business going under due to huge staff vacancies, since we lost many EU employees and key industries like social care and hospitality struggling to cope, future growth will continue to be jeopardised!
Will the May Elections be when this country wakes up and acts?

ronib Sun 05-Feb-23 07:39:27

Growstuff I can’t understand where your argument is going. Pensioners surviving on the basic state pension are entitled to a number of benefits as you must know. Have you costed this in ?

Also there are a number of ways not to pay vat legally. Use a home hairdresser and there’s no vat because business receipts below £85k are vat exempt for example. Same applies to cleaners.

Use a library and save on the cost of books and newspapers. Use your oap bus pass and in London a freedom pass for free travel so no vat on fuel, cars, car maintenance and no road tax. Walk if still possible.

Given the growing ageing population, the exodus of young talent and having lived through a two year pandemic plus now a war with Russia on the horizon, it’s going to be interesting.

growstuff Sat 04-Feb-23 19:54:19

Of course it's possible to escape some forms of tax. People in babysitting circles do it all the time. However, it really is impossible in the UK to escape paying some form of tax, which is why we are all taxpayers, even pensioners surviving on the basic state pension.

Wyllow3 Sat 04-Feb-23 19:41:45

I'm thinking *growstuff" of the "swap" economy, also ease of purchase of some illegal goods. But lots of dangers for the vulnerable, ie if you "owe".

Wyllow3 Sat 04-Feb-23 19:39:14

Oh, yes, that's true, you can't be totally out of it just chunks. Relative to lifestyle.

growstuff Sat 04-Feb-23 19:31:11

Wyllow3

I believe this to be true, tho I have only knowing people evidence: and I'm talking people at the bottom of the "heap" not actual figures.

I don't condemn those people as a whole group, some individuals are acting in what is a criminal and damaging way (especially where illegal drugs are involved: others, just trying somehow or other to get by.

Question is, how to approach this? what are the causes? How to reach the desperate "trying to get by's" and lift them out?

But it's not true! People might survive from dealing on the black market, but they still pay tax, whether they like it or not.

growstuff Sat 04-Feb-23 19:29:43

Katie59

growstuff

I'll take your word for it. I must admit I don't know anybody who lives on take-aways, but they're paying a fortune in tax.

I don't know how anybody avoids paying most taxes, unless they belong to a self-contained group of people who can supply everything cash in hand. Even zero VAT rated food from supermarkets has tax which has been used in the production, supply and retail processes factored into the price.

Spot on there Growstuff there are several self contained groups or communities that are committed to not paying UK taxes nor the rules we all live by.

But you mean income tax! How do they escape other taxes? Are they homeless, never use any form of transport, have any heating, eat or drink anything not zero VAT rated? Do they not use mobile phones or any other technology? Do they run around naked?

I just checked. Income tax accounts for only 24.6% of the revenue the government raises from taxes and other sources.

Almost every single one of us is a taxpayer.

Wyllow3 Sat 04-Feb-23 19:24:48

I believe this to be true, tho I have only knowing people evidence: and I'm talking people at the bottom of the "heap" not actual figures.

I don't condemn those people as a whole group, some individuals are acting in what is a criminal and damaging way (especially where illegal drugs are involved: others, just trying somehow or other to get by.

Question is, how to approach this? what are the causes? How to reach the desperate "trying to get by's" and lift them out?

Katie59 Sat 04-Feb-23 19:05:53

growstuff

I'll take your word for it. I must admit I don't know anybody who lives on take-aways, but they're paying a fortune in tax.

I don't know how anybody avoids paying most taxes, unless they belong to a self-contained group of people who can supply everything cash in hand. Even zero VAT rated food from supermarkets has tax which has been used in the production, supply and retail processes factored into the price.

Spot on there Growstuff there are several self contained groups or communities that are committed to not paying UK taxes nor the rules we all live by.

growstuff Sat 04-Feb-23 17:34:41

I'll take your word for it. I must admit I don't know anybody who lives on take-aways, but they're paying a fortune in tax.

I don't know how anybody avoids paying most taxes, unless they belong to a self-contained group of people who can supply everything cash in hand. Even zero VAT rated food from supermarkets has tax which has been used in the production, supply and retail processes factored into the price.

Katie59 Sat 04-Feb-23 17:27:34

growstuff

Katie59

growstuff

Katie59

Very few live “off grid” but there are plenty that do not contribute to society in a positive way while claiming whatever advantage they can from benefits and/or the black economy.

But even they pay tax! (Whoever they are.)

Growstuff there is a whole industry in the black market all done in cash, they don’t declare anything or pay VAT, many millions are evaded and that’s excluding the drugs industry.

Yes, I know, but are you you suggesting that these people never pay any tax on anything they do with their money? Don't they pay council tax, buy clothes, eat out, travel anywhere or do anything?

I can think of groups that probably avoid paying most taxes and would live on takeaways, new clothes would carry some tax and motor fuel.
The Shadow Economy is said to be worth £150bn and might be worth 10% of the whole economy, it’s massive.

growstuff Sat 04-Feb-23 17:04:57

What is a civil servant?

www.civilservant.org.uk/information-definitions.html#:~:text=Civil%20servants%20are%20those%20who,)%20represents%20the%20Crown%2FState.

growstuff Sat 04-Feb-23 17:02:48

Katie59

I’m not sure how you define a civil servant, numbers in the public sector have fallen in recent years from close to 7m to just over 5m due to moving many groups to the private sector.

So the 5m would be those employed directly, administrators, police, fire service, health service, etc etc, split 2/3 central and 1/3 local government

The police, fire service, health service, local government employees are not civil servants.

growstuff Sat 04-Feb-23 17:01:13

Katie59

I’m not sure how you define a civil servant, numbers in the public sector have fallen in recent years from close to 7m to just over 5m due to moving many groups to the private sector.

So the 5m would be those employed directly, administrators, police, fire service, health service, etc etc, split 2/3 central and 1/3 local government

A civil servant works for the Civil Service and has specific pay and terms and conditions.

growstuff Sat 04-Feb-23 16:59:52

Katie59

growstuff

Katie59

Very few live “off grid” but there are plenty that do not contribute to society in a positive way while claiming whatever advantage they can from benefits and/or the black economy.

But even they pay tax! (Whoever they are.)

Growstuff there is a whole industry in the black market all done in cash, they don’t declare anything or pay VAT, many millions are evaded and that’s excluding the drugs industry.

Yes, I know, but are you you suggesting that these people never pay any tax on anything they do with their money? Don't they pay council tax, buy clothes, eat out, travel anywhere or do anything?

Katie59 Sat 04-Feb-23 16:59:17

I’m not sure how you define a civil servant, numbers in the public sector have fallen in recent years from close to 7m to just over 5m due to moving many groups to the private sector.

So the 5m would be those employed directly, administrators, police, fire service, health service, etc etc, split 2/3 central and 1/3 local government

Katie59 Sat 04-Feb-23 16:43:08

growstuff

Katie59

Very few live “off grid” but there are plenty that do not contribute to society in a positive way while claiming whatever advantage they can from benefits and/or the black economy.

But even they pay tax! (Whoever they are.)

Growstuff there is a whole industry in the black market all done in cash, they don’t declare anything or pay VAT, many millions are evaded and that’s excluding the drugs industry.

foxie48 Sat 04-Feb-23 15:46:03

Civil Service Statistics shows that employment stood at 510,080 headcount and 478,090 on a full-time equivalent basis (FTE) as at 31 March 2022 (NB: see section 2 below for more information on our headline measure for monitoring the changing size of the Civil Service workforce).
Taken from the Govt Statistical Bulletin

M0nica Sat 04-Feb-23 14:58:31

513,000 civil servants? Rubbish. Possibly 513,000 people working in the public sector.

What a civil servant is, is defined quite clearly in this link www.civilservant.org.uk/information-definitions.html

To quote from it:

Civil servants are those who are employed by 'the Crown'.
The UK's (unwritten) constitution recognises three independent power bases:
^ Parliament,^
The Executive (that is Government Ministers and Civil Servants)
The Judiciary

Judges, magistrates and those employed by Parliament are thus not civil servants. Nor are the police, the armed forces, and those employed in the National Health Service and by Local Authorities.

Civil servants are usually - but not always - in practice employed by 'Ministers of the Crown' - so most civil servants work in government departments and are therefore employed by Government Ministers.

Grantanow Sat 04-Feb-23 11:27:41

I doubt it matters whether I believe Sunak or the IMF. What is clear to me is the present Tory government is grossly unsatisfactory across a wide range of issues and needs a long time in the wilderness to rethink. Sunak ought to have gained experience in a junior role before becoming PM. But God help us if Johnson comes back.

growstuff Sat 04-Feb-23 11:01:42

ronib

MaizieD just an alternative way of life which you have probably not experienced. No insult surely?

What about council tax, road tax, VAT on fuel, phone and non-food consumables? What about the tax the people who provide non-taxable food have already paid and factor into the cost?

It is absolutely wrong to claim that anybody doesn't pay tax.

growstuff Sat 04-Feb-23 10:57:18

Casdon

growstuff

Casdon

growstuff

ronib

As usual, the internet gives varying figures… depending on the site. So pretty pointless exercise.

Some fairly ordinary people would really like much less interference in their ordinary lives but that’s really not going to be understood here?

It could be because so much public administration has been outsourced, so employees are employed by private companies, but directly funded by the state. Such people are no longer civil servants nor local government employees.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

Local Government cuts due to government underfunding is the main reason for the reduction in civil servants.

Local government employees aren't civil servants, although they might be included in the statistics.

The ICAEW categorise them together, with some rationale, but you are right.
Civil service figures only, which are interesting.
www.civilservant.org.uk/information-numbers.html

I was just thinking that could be a reason why there are discrepancies about the figures.

growstuff Sat 04-Feb-23 10:51:48

I'm really not sure what you mean by "do not contribute to society in a positive way".

I doubt if anybody is genuinely indispensable, although most people do contribute to society by being good friends or helping other people out. They help economically by being consumers - and almost all consumption is taxed and provides work for others.

Maybe you mean the millions of pensioners in this country. I wouldn't like you to give the government any ideas! hmm

growstuff Sat 04-Feb-23 10:47:05

Katie59

Very few live “off grid” but there are plenty that do not contribute to society in a positive way while claiming whatever advantage they can from benefits and/or the black economy.

But even they pay tax! (Whoever they are.)

DaisyAnne Sat 04-Feb-23 10:25:52

post posting

DaisyAnne Sat 04-Feb-23 10:16:50

MaizieD

ronib's failure to recognise any form of taxation apart from income tax is likely to be a result of the media not taking a great deal of interest in any other sort of taxation (and she's obviously never read any of my posts where I point out exactly what you have just done, growstuff grin )

This is from the BBC thematic Review that I mentioned yesterday somewhere:

Thinking about a broad definition of impartiality, one question we asked was ‘are people’s diverse interests proportionately represented in BBC coverage?’ There’s no perfect measure of that, but we think we can observe misalignments. What gets talked about can obscure big interests that don’t, bringing risks to impartiality by omission.
^ A striking example is VAT^.
In Wales, more VAT is paid than income tax, ditto North East England. In fact, a large proportion of the whole UK population pays more VAT than income tax. For a great many households across the country, VAT is the biggest tax and so to them you might say the most important. More than one third of UK adults pay no income tax at all, but they do pay VAT.

What determines this is people’s relative income and spending. For high incomes, income tax is likely to dominate; for lower incomes, VAT. That is, these groups have different tax interests. But which tax is more talked about? Which interest is most served by political argument and BBC coverage?

We think income tax knocks VAT out of the park in this respect, meaning the tax interest of the better-off gets more attention.

Asked about this imbalance in the coverage of VAT, many interviewees went silent for a moment, then said things like: ‘Interesting… never really thought about it. Yes.’

P 21

www.bbc.co.uk/aboutthebbc/documents/thematic-review-taxation-public-spending-govt-borrowing-debt.pdf

Very interesting Maizie. Thanks for post it.