Climate Change

Sadly Carbon I'm not sure that the Government can order water companies to do anything (I may be wrong) .
Bristol Water is owned by Grupo Agbar (a Spanish company), Cambridge by Cheung Kong (based in Hong Kong ) and Central, East and Southeast are owned by Veolia ( A French company and reportedly the largest private operator of water services in the world.)
Call me old-fashioned, but I really don't like this turn of events!

I understood that the reason there was a drought was because the underground aquifers were low. People just do not realise that a lot of our water comes from underground and this depends on rainfall from months previously - not yesterday. If we take out too much we are asking for trouble, real trouble, in the future because it takes hundreds of years for the water to accumulate.

Also: if you want to blame someone then it should be the water companies who are not dealing with leaks. That is scandalous. One might ask, why should we suffer because they are saving (their) money by not fixing leaks. Well, actually I would not be suffering if we had a hosepipe ban. Suffering is when you have to walk five miles there and back to collect water.

PS the water companies think it saves them money not mending leaks because they weigh the cost of mending the leaks with the cost of producing the equivalent water. This is totally false economy - but that is capitalism for you. The government should ORDER them to mend leaks.

Tip: don't keep watering your plants, it stops the roots going down very far - then they will suffer more when there is a drought.

I don't know why the LTA stops at 1990 in those stats. Maybe something to do with the collection of data pre- and post privatisation ?
Interesting paper but resisting the urge to read it all.
Gist seems to be that we have not had enough rain to top up the SE yet. Takes a long time, particularly aquifers.

What a strange definition of 'drought'!

It is dark, dismal, windy and wet here ...the heating and lights are on!!

As I cannot do the work I’d planned in the garden ...and cannot settle to anything else ...boredom drove me to look at Bags question of who decides we are in drought conditions. [Having learnt at school that areas of drought receive less than 10” of rain per annum.]

Found this site...

publications.environment-agency.gov.uk/PDF/GEHO0612BWNM-E-E.pdf

Quotes from last monthly review ...
1.“Seven of the 24 water supply companies in England and Wales imposed temporary use bans (hosepipe bans) on 5 April. These seven are Anglian Water, South East Water, parts of Southern Water, Sutton and East Surrey Water, Thames Water, Veolia Central and Veolia South East.
It is for the water companies to decide, in line with their statutory Drought Plans, what restrictions they need to place on the use of public water supplies. We are aware that most companies have ruled out the need for further restrictions. It is for companies to balance the need to conserve their water supplies with the impacts on their customers. We expect water companies to continue to engage with their customers to maintain the
careful use of water seen so far, follow their Drought Plans and be confident that there is little risk of them needing to apply for Drought Permits or Drought Orders in this calendar year, before lifting temporary use bans. “

2. “The south and east areas are at risk of environmental stress due to the below average rainfall over the past 20 months.”

3.“The drought permit granted to Southern Water to help fill Bewl Water expired at the end of April and Sutton and East Surrey Water’s drought permit to enable them to fill Bough Beech reservoir expired on 31 May. There are no other drought orders or drought permits in place. “

4. “Most companies tell us that they have no plans to make drought permit or drought order applications this year but a couple have not ruled them out if the weather turns hot and very dry. “

5. “Seven water companies: Anglian Water, South East Water, Southern Water (part of supply area), Sutton and East Surrey Water, Thames Water, Veolia South East and Veolia Central, imposed temporary use restrictions (hosepipe bans) on 5 April affecting 20 million customers “

6.“Water companies must be confident they can meet supplies over the coming summer and autumn before lifting their temporary use bans as most reservoir refill, aquifer and ground water recharge occurs over the winter. “

So ...what I don’t understand is why all the data they quote is LTA (long term averages) which is based on/compared with data for 1961 -1990 ??? I wonder what the percentage increase is for population and industry in these areas for the last 50 years??? and their water requirements compared to the 1960s???

So ...I’ve also discovered the current definition for the term drought is ...
“drought is defined by the delicate balance between water supply and demand. Whenever human demands for water exceed the natural availability of water, the result is drought.”

On that basis, it has nothing to do with rainfall ...we're just greedy and demand too much water

Hear, hear!

love the geddit. touche.

I will read the link - later.

And, given that global warming predictions are based on even more flawed computer models, you can perhaps see whence stems my scepticism.

To go back to your question about what point I was making, if you go to the link I gave a few back, the Met Office page gives a summary prediction of rainfall (well, precipitation) for April-June. It's highlighted in yellow. They predicted that it would most likely be dry, and a good deal drier than 'normal' (whatever that is in good ole Blighty). The prediction was wrong. That's all. So, one concludes, the computer models they are using are rubbish at the job. Geddit?

The Thames is positively wooshing now! Never seen the barriers on the weir up so high!

You can almost hear them saying "for God's sake, let it go on to the next lot!"

I expect it was the people who can see how deep the reservoirs are, and the River Thames.

Sorry if those questions seem unrelated to the topic; they aren't unrelated in my mind.

This may have nothing to do with the Met Office, but someone may know the answers anyway so it's worth asking: Who said we were officially in a drought in the south? Who imposed the hose-pipe ban – the water companies or government? If the latter, who advises them?

I'm simply seeking information here. I know there has been some talk of having less drastic words than 'drought' to use next time the water levels are low.

And, anyway. I could have told you that we would get all this wet weather sooner or later. I've been saying it all along. The water had to be waiting somewhere.

No one asked me!

( for the totally humourless)

Bags, what are you actually commenting on there? It's very clearly phrased. The met office freely admit that no one can accurately forecast the weather more than a week or two ahead. They don't do clever phrasing. Just honest.

Bags I wonder if Jo Nova is a good friend of Donna Laframboise?

Jo Nova ( Wikipedia ) does have a science degree. She is an acknowledged sceptic and appears to have connections to the Heartland Institute (U.S.A.) the latter well known for its collusion with Philip Morris questioning the links of secondhand smoking to health risks!

Bags you draw our attention to the views of known sceptics, just as I would credit the views of those who do believe that global warming is occurring. Long may we continue to argue/discuss/debate.

You forgot to underline 'probably' Bags!

This is straight from the Met Office. No press interpretation anywhere near it. My underlining. If they have "got it right", that wettest April in a hundred years is nothing to what we're going to get , which must be why everyone is moaning about the rain down south. (Yes, I do feel sorry for the people who are suffering floods).

No offence, jings; they may be the best in the world. Doesn't make 'em right. I don't actually mind when the forecasts we are given (by the MO or the media) are wrong. It is Britain after all. Renowned for crazy, changeable, unreliable weather. Anyway, time will tell whether June is even wetter than April this year. How are we doing so far?

If you read the following paragraph carefully, you will see how, wisely, they are hedging their bets. It is well phrased. They cannot say with certainty what the weather will be like weeks ahead. Neither can they, or anyone else, say with certainty what the climate (which is not the same thing as weather) will be like in twenty, fifty or a hundred years time.

"Predicting month to month variations in rainfall at long-lead times remains very difficult. However there are hints from some computer model forecasts that as we move through May and on into June the jet stream over the North Atlantic may tend to edge southwards, which, if it happened, would probably lead to an increase in rainfall across the UK. Such a sequence would bear some resemblance to the evolution seen last year - note on the right of Figure P3 how May and June in 2011 (grey symbols) were markedly wetter than April (pink symbol). It is mainly for this reason that _April could well be the driest of the 3 months this year_"

www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf

Jings I agree with you, even though I know you are very biased!

The met office gets it right. It's how the press interprets it that is at fault.

Our weather forecasting in this country is the best in the world.

Ha! Ha! indeed, nag The met office can't even predict the weather for a few months and they expect us to believe what they say about the climate weather far into the future. [shakes head despairingly]

Met Office Computer Models are Rubbish

It's horrible. Looks like a jack o lantern.

Oh I hate that grin. It doesn't say it at all! grrrrr

Surely they've had time to find a better one.

[shrug]