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The Sceptics' Thread

(80 Posts)
bagitha Thu 08-Dec-11 17:43:57

If anyone wants to read this thread, it's here. If no-one wants to read it, that's fine.

Yet another physicist is speaking out against what he calls pathological science. This one's a lecturer at Oxford. I used to work in the Earth Sciences building almost next door to the Clarendon Lab. These guys are not fools with 'agendas' of their own. They are very bright sparks and they are scientists of the old school: check everything, check again, free up your data and your methods so others can check. Be open to questioning. Keep asking questions yourself. Science is never settled.

Here's his cv info: nmr.physics.ox.ac.uk/cv.html

And here's his letter to a climate alarmist:
"Richard, I can't answer for our host, but you have to remember why some of us got involved in the climate wars in the first place.

For me this has never really been about climate itself. I don't find climate partcularly interesting; it's one of those worthy but tedious branches of science which under normal circumstances I would happily leave to other people who like that sort of thing. My whole involvement has always been driven by concerns about the corruption of science.

Like many people I was dragged into this by the Hockey Stick. I was looking up some minor detail about the Medieval Warm Period and discovered this weird parallel universe of people who apparently didn't believe it had happened, and even more bizarrely appeared to believe that essentially nothing had happened in the world before the twentieth century. The Hockey Stick is an extraordinary claim which requires extraordinary evidence, so I started reading round the subject. And it soon became clear that the first extraordinary thing about the evidence for the Hockey Stick was how extraordinarily weak it was, and the second extraordinary thing was how desperate its defenders were to hide this fact. I'd always had an interest in pathological science, and it looked like I might have stumbled across a really good modern example.

You can't spend long digging around the Hockey Stick without stumbling across other areas of climate science pathology. The next one that really struck me was the famous Phil Jones quote: "Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it". To any practising scientist that's a huge red flag. Sure we all feel a bit like that on occasion, but to actually say something like that in an email is practically equivalent to getting up on a public platform and saying "I'm a pathological scientist, and I'm proud."

Rather naively I initially believed that Phil Jones was just having a bad day and had said something really stupid. Surely he couldn't really think that was acceptable? And surely his colleagues would deal with him? But no, it turned out that this apalling quote was only the most quotable of several other remarks, and he really was trying to hide his data from people who might (horror of horrors) want to check his conclusions.

That's when I got involved in my FOI request. And consequently got exposed to the full horror of "big climate", as clear an example of politicised and pathological science as I have ever seen. And then came Climategate 2009, and "hide the decline". All downhill from there.

When will I be done with climate? Quite simply when it stops being a pathological science and starts acting according to the normal rules and conventions of scientific discourse. At that point I will, I'm afraid, simply lose interest in the whole business, and leave it to the experts to get on with their stuff, just as I leave most of the rest of science to the appropriate experts.

To put it another way, I will be done with climate once I can trust that Richard Betts can be left to do good work on his own. I absolutely trust you to get on with doing good stuff under normal circumstances. But I'm afraid I don't trust you to do good work under current pathological conditions, because you don't stand up against the all too obvious stench emanating from some of your colleagues.

For me the Hockey Stick was where it began, and probably where it will end (and I will daringly suggest that the same thing might be true for our host). The Hockey Stick is obviously wrong. Everybody knows it is obviously wrong. Climategate 2011 shows that even many of its most outspoken public defenders know it is obviously wrong. And yet it goes on being published and defended year after year.

Do I expect you to publicly denounce the Hockey Stick as obvious drivel? Well yes, that's what you should do. It is the job of scientists of integrity to expose pathological science, and it is especially the job of scientists in closely related fields. You should not be leaving this to random passing NMR spectroscopists who have better things to do. But I'm afraid I no longer expect you to do so. The opportune moment has, I think, passed. And that is why, even though we are all delighted to have you here, and all enjoy what you have to say, some of us get a trifle tetchy from time to time.

You ask us to judge you by AR5, and in many ways that is a reasonable request. Many of us will judge it by the handling of paleoclimate, not because this is all that important an aspect of the science, but rather because it is a litmus test of whether climate scientists are prepared to stand up against the bullying defenders of pathology in their midst. So, Richard, can I look forward to returning back to my proper work on the application of composite rotations to the performance of error-tolerant unitary transformations? Or will we all be let down again?

Dec 3, 2011. Jonathan Jones

It appears on the BishopHill science blog about three-quarters of the way down the comments:
bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2011/12/2/tim-barnett-on-the-hockey-stick.html

carboncareful Sun 29-Jan-12 15:34:52

PS I suggest people have a look at Google maps and see if this planet has been changed, affected, modified by human beings. There is hardly anywhere on land that has not been changed at some time or other my human inhabitants. They have recently discovered that even the Amazon Forest is not the pristine wilderness they once thought. Humans have inhabited it for thousands of years and cultivated the sorts of tree that were useful to them. Is there anywhere on the British Isles that has not been ploughed, grazed, coppiced, dammed, flooded, drained...........?

jeni Sun 29-Jan-12 15:39:55

The municipal roundabouts in Portishead, by the look of themgrin

JessM Sun 29-Jan-12 16:09:48

Nature reserves are they Jeni?
Carol it is true that volcanic activity can cause climate change. If we had a huge mega eruption there would be a large temporary effect lasting a year or so. (until the dust settled) In distant geological past huge amount of volcanic activity has caused drastic changes to the climate.
But we are not currently going through a period of unusual volcanic activity.
Tectonic plates I think might have been implicated in the past inasmuch as they can cause volcanic activity.
I don't think there is any dispute that the planet is currently warming up and volcanoes are not the cause.

jeni Sun 29-Jan-12 16:19:07

Nature reserves tend to be looked after and are enjoyable. To be fair the one as you enter the town aren't to bad, it's the others.(mind you it's so cold here there could be snow leopards in them)

carboncareful Mon 30-Jan-12 10:54:47

Just been looking up Hockey Stick graph on Wikipedia. There is a lot to read because it is very complicated (and in trying to simplify it for the public some scientists & journalists have laid themselves open to criticism - and others have been overly picky) but it sums it all up by saying:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy

More than twelve subsequent scientific papers, using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records, produced reconstructions broadly similar to the original MBH hockey-stick graph, with variations in how flat the pre-20th century "shaft" appears. Almost all of them supported the IPCC conclusion that the warmest decade in 1000 years was probably that at the end of the 20th century.[6]

jeni Mon 30-Jan-12 11:05:27

It's not globally warming here. I'm cold and it's snowing.

bagitha Mon 30-Jan-12 11:10:18

Don't you just hate it when reality undermines a dramatic meme?

jeni Mon 30-Jan-12 11:30:47

Meme?

bagitha Mon 30-Jan-12 11:40:18

Reference to something Richard Dawkins wrote in (I think) The Selfish Gene :
“Examples of memes are tunes, ideas, catch-phrases, clothes fashions, ways of making pots or of building arches. Just as genes propagate themselves in the gene pool by leaping from body to body via sperms or eggs, so memes propagate themselves in the meme pool by leaping from brain to brain via a process which, in the broad sense, can be called imitation.”

bagitha Mon 30-Jan-12 11:43:08

I think he made it up.

Butternut Mon 30-Jan-12 12:01:23

In French, même means the same, identical.

Would that make sense in how Richard Dawkins used it, bagitha??

Just trying to engage what's left of my brain.....grin

jeni Mon 30-Jan-12 12:36:29

Help! My aged fluffy fuzzy brain can't cope. It's going round and round like ouroboros!

bagitha Mon 30-Jan-12 12:57:51

I guess so, butty, in the sense that memes can be passed on whole and unchanged like genes, but they can also mutate. Thus global warming ----> climate change -> climate disruption (otherwise known as weather) and so on.

We're nearly round to global cooling again, I reckon. wink

jeni Mon 30-Jan-12 13:06:02

Do they have telomeres?

bagitha Mon 30-Jan-12 13:11:11

The warmist ones do.

jeni Mon 30-Jan-12 13:14:14

So they get like me :-frayed at the endssmile

bagitha Mon 30-Jan-12 13:16:58

Yes, but they don't notice and carry on as if the old meme is unaffected by rot.

I'm out of my depth now!!!!! Time for lunch.

bagitha Mon 30-Jan-12 14:58:09

@ butty. We must have a copy of The Selfish Gene but it's not with all the other Dawkins books. Maybe someone borrowed it. However I found a bit about memes in The Extended Phenotype.......

...... in short, I don't think it has anything to do with the French word même and my use of it above was 'loose' in the extreme! But since Crick himself used the word 'gene' loosely, that's OK. smile

What larks! Talking of which, do you see them near you at all?

jeni Mon 30-Jan-12 14:59:56

What genes?

bagitha Mon 30-Jan-12 15:16:07

Well, on this thread, it could be the ones that replicate certain chucks of garbage. Otherwise you've lost me completely, jeni! grin

carboncareful Mon 30-Jan-12 15:18:47

"garbage" asbsolutely

Butternut Mon 30-Jan-12 15:19:40

It's certainly global cooling here - snowing nearly all day long and so pretty. smile

Yes, we do have larks. I notice them particularly in late spring when they rise from the fields as I walk by.

carboncareful Mon 30-Jan-12 15:34:56

its a shortening of Mimeme a word of Greek origin - something imitated

carboncareful Mon 30-Jan-12 15:42:57

bagitha Just read your post of 27th Jan. I would have thought you would have supported the Republicans? After all it is they who are the main climate change deniers. All of them - especially the Tea Party. Their denial of Climate Change goes along with their belief in Creationism and their insistence that Obama is a Muslim and was not born in the US !!!!

Joan Mon 30-Jan-12 22:53:01

I can't bear to read about the republicans in the USA any more: they are so unspeakably awful in their beliefs and ultra right wing attitudes. They depress me, deeply.

Sometimes I tell myself that belief in creationism, denial of climate change, and all the rest of it, is just like wearing tribal or gang colours. They know it means nothing, they don't really believe it, but it is a badge of their affiliation.

Other times I realise it is because they are like the archetypal school bully: nasty and thick in equal proportions.