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NHS winter crisis looms

(438 Posts)
JessM Fri 09-Dec-16 19:46:17

The NHS is struggling and winter is setting in.
Jeremy Hunt is asking for "efficiency savings" - in other words he is making cuts when demand is rising steeply as a result of our aging population. This means that every year the NHS needs a lot more money, to just maintain their service.
Over the last 6 years Trusts have been heavily pressured by Jeremy Hunt to cut beds - "increase bed occupancy" - to become "more efficient". So there are fewer beds in the system to cope with the inevitable rise in winter admissions.
Social care budgets have been heavily cut in England so there is less of a safety net for frail people living at home - so more likely to end up in hospital.
Noro virus outbreaks in hospitals are already up on the last few years - and that tends to close whole wards.
Today I read that 7% that is one in 14 English people are waiting for non-routine operations. Suspect there aren't going to be many beds available for those on the lists. Longest waiting list for 9 years
www.theguardian.com/society/2016/dec/08/one-in-14-people-waiting-operations-demand-nhs-soars
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-38263593
And is this a taste of things to come - flu closing school in Manchester? if there is a flu epidemic things are going to get really nasty. Best advice is, if you haven't had a flu jab yet, get one. They're about a tenner in a pharmacy near you, if you're not entitled to a free one!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-38241513

paddyann Fri 09-Dec-16 19:59:07

the Scottish government have already announced extra cash to alleviate the problems over the winter,I think thats a good move,dealing with the issue BEFORE it becomes a problem.

durhamjen Sat 10-Dec-16 00:47:38

Well done, the Scottish government. It doesn't want to privatise the NHS, though, unlike NHSE.

This is interesting. After Brexit, the 2012 Health and Social Care Act goes out the window. We could stop the privatisation then, if there is any left of it.

voxpoliticalonline.com/2016/12/09/will-brexit-scupper-the-tories-nhs-privatisation-plan/

thatbags Sat 10-Dec-16 08:14:04

The Scottish Government is also making (has made) cuts in health care funding though. I'm pleased about this winter's extra funding for winter bugs but it is essentially window dressing.

thatbags Sat 10-Dec-16 08:20:07

In real terms the proportion of GDP spent on healthcare is increasing globally. I'd be interested to see figures from 1994 on this graph:

DaphneBroon Sat 10-Dec-16 08:24:58

"Increase bed occupancy"??
You mean like sharing? (Sshh don't tell Jeremy Hunt or it will be his next initiative)

thatbags Sat 10-Dec-16 08:25:00

Complaint by Martin McCluskie for Inverclyde.

For example.

thatbags Sat 10-Dec-16 08:25:38

Haha! db. Yes, it is the most obvious interpretation grin

thatbags Sat 10-Dec-16 08:26:04

They'll be talking about increasing bed turnover next wink

JessM Sat 10-Dec-16 09:03:58

Well it happens in the 3rd world, sharing hospital beds sad
The Welsh government are doing their best to provide as much funding as possible for the NHS - but due to Tory cuts, many other things are set to suffer - libraries, youth services etc etc Because Welsh Labour government are prioritising Health and Social Care. Wales is not privatising and does not have its hospitals working in relatively small Trusts. Instead, large health boards. Wales does however have a high level of demand because the population is poorer and therefore sicker.

Thanks for the 22 year old link Bags smile smile . I think it's safe to assume that the graph carries on rising in countries like the UK, where life expectancy is steadily rising and therefore the need is rising sharply. We probably all know people who have had all kinds of expensive treatments form the NHS during their 70s and 80s. Or multiple hospital admissions. Or repeat prescriptions that come in a full carrier bag. If we had had a sharp dip in the birth rate after the war, the NHS would not be needing additional funding now.

Anya Sat 10-Dec-16 09:47:47

We all need to demand tax rises to fund the NHS and be prepared to pay more ourselves.

Lazigirl Sat 10-Dec-16 10:02:33

Absolutely Anya. Most people I know would prefer this if given the choice. It is the definite ideology of this Government to get rid of the NHS. I know a few people who have paid recently to be seen privately (out of meagre savings) because the wait to see a consultant, or for investigations, is a very long time, including a couple of people with cancer. You don't realise how bad it is until you need treatment yourself.

MaizieD Sat 10-Dec-16 10:04:09

We seem to have a strange trend in the UK for the turkeys to vote for Christmas. Who was the group who mainly voted for the Tories? The elderly.

Did they believe the promise that the NHS was safe in their hands?

trisher Sat 10-Dec-16 12:01:31

Apparently they did MaizieD which only makes you think that people believe anything they are told and have very short memories. The Tories record on the NHS has always been terrible, but of course that nice David Cameron promised he cared about it didn't he?

MaizieD Sat 10-Dec-16 13:10:13

Mind you, trisher, a recent thread on Gnet made it clear that a number of us who have had practically lifelong benefit from the NHS aren't particularly bothered about future generations enjoying the same benefits.

Anya Sat 10-Dec-16 13:12:47

Surely not shock

thatbags Sat 10-Dec-16 14:25:51

jess, big oops! grin

Labour MSP, Jackie Bailey is currently very vocal about the SNP pulling health services, e.g. they closed A & E at the Vale of Leven Hospital. Mind you, I suppose free prescriptions have to be funded somehow.

thatbags Sat 10-Dec-16 14:29:08

I think one of the reasons we need immigrants is because of the slowing of the birth rate. It's happening all over Europe.

It's also happening elsewhere, gradually.

I think the NHS would still need more cash now than it did some years ago because treatments have got more complex, and there are simply more things being treated, more lives being extended, etc.

ElaineI Sat 10-Dec-16 20:12:57

It's already a problem all over UK even in Scotland. Now (yes NOW) there are too many patients and too few staff - staff retiring/retired - pointed out as a problem years ago and nothing done. People living longer often with health care issues, people with conditions caused by obesity etc. Not enough staff or money to cope with it all. We do not pay enough NI contributions to support all of this and we are nearing a crisis. No-one listens to the staff at ground level and sadly it will become unsupportable in the next few years!

Lazigirl Sat 10-Dec-16 20:46:17

As has been mentioned before NHS is mainly funded, 80% by general taxation and rest by NI contributions. We CAN afford to fund it, it is a political choice not to.

granjura Sat 10-Dec-16 21:15:09

Exactly, same for education. The UK chooses to spend much smaller % of GDP than many other neighbours. A choice.

The cynical in me thinks it is totally deliberate in order to make people accept privatisation by the back door as the only way to improve. In fact, for reasons I cannot divulge, I know it is the case as I know people involved in the process.

It will take huge discipline from patients this winter to not over-clog the system by using Gps and A&E with minor colds and ailments which should be self-treated for the first 5 to 7 days with common sense measures.

daphnedill Sat 10-Dec-16 21:30:41

Health and education can't avoid being political issues. Both cost significant amounts of money, have finite resources and almost infinite demand.

Demand will always outstrip supply, which is why economic and political decisions have to be made.

Conservatives claim:

1 Both can be provided more efficiently by the private sector (very questionable, especially when so many MPs and their frinds have financial intersts in both, although I think the private sector does have a useful but minimal role to play);

2 The state is only responsible for basic provision. People can then choose to top up services from their own resources (this, of course, means that essential treatment can become unaffordable).

The Health and Social Care Bill, academisation and free schools have cost the country billions, without any noticeable improvement. I would also add the Work Programme to the list of whacky programmes which have achieved nothing for an awful lot of money.

I don't actually know what the current Labour Party plans for the NHS :-(.

daphnedill Sat 10-Dec-16 21:34:29

@granjura

I hope I've never wasted a GP's or A&E's time, but it's really not that easy. If you have a child with an unexplained rash, what do you do? It could be just a reaction to a new washing powder or it could be something much more serious. Jeremy Hunt recently suggested that parents should diagnose meningitis by doing an internet search, which I find totally unacceptable.

Anya Sat 10-Dec-16 21:36:35

You don't waste GPS time DD but there's plenty as does.

daphnedill Sat 10-Dec-16 21:40:49

I can't comment, because I don't know. Evidence seems, at best, anecdotal.