Bread and flour prices to rise after poor harvest

SueDonim

Surely if someone is now buying three bags of coffee a week instead of two, then the producers of said coffee will take heed of that and ensure they step up production? It’s supply and demand, don’t you think?

Exactly, and stores using just in time stocking would know to have more on hand.

Surely if someone is now buying three bags of coffee a week instead of two, then the producers of said coffee will take heed of that and ensure they step up production? It’s supply and demand, don’t you think?

yes indeed, they just had farmers on the local news. They are 50% down with harvest

Flour was on my order for this week (SR, not bread flour), available yesterday but now not available when I went to add the bananas I'd forgotten to add to the order.
Word must be getting round.

I see what you mean GillT57 when you put it like that.

I still think that if they didn’t announce things like there will be a wheat shortage that it would be better, as it is, I’m sure flour will soon be off the shelves, if not already.

GillT57

*Buying a little extra over a long period of time does not cause shortages. “Prepping”*

Buying 6 at once when a shortage is likely is what causes the issues. “Panic buying”

I agree summerlove, this is what we are doing, and I fail to see how my buying 3 bags of ground coffee a week rather than 2 is going to impact anyone. As a home baker, I always have lots of flour in the larder and I shall be ensuring that I have ample supplies at all times, and not risk 'leaving it to next time I shop'. I fully expect food shortages from January onwards when the no deal Brexit kicks in and I do not wish to be scrabbling for the last pack of loo rolls when it happens.

This is how I manage it as well. But I have in fact been accused of panic buying in the past.
I thought I was just being sensible and keeping 3 weeks of stock vs 1-2 weeks.

Stocking is simply prudence in my eyes.

Bit by bit my store cupboard is filling up.

In point of fact we may be doing this wretched government a favour when shortages hit as we won’t all be feeling the effects for a while.

Not really Calendargirl, I don't see it that way and obviously if I notice a surfeit of coffee in the larder then I don't buy the extra, and may start using some of it up. The point I was trying to make, admittedly clumsily, is that I don't think that buying an additional pack or two of coffee, or and extra bottle of olive oil or whatever, is going to cause a massive shortage for the next shopper, and I don't consider it panic buying. There is a limit on what I can store, and it is likely no more than my brother, who lives in the wilds of Scotland, always does.

GillT57

But if you normally manage on 2 bags of ground coffee a week, then start buying 3 bags every week, over a year you will accumulate 52 bags that you don’t really use, so if another person normally buys 1 bag a week, if there is a shortage, you have prevented them buying their coffee.

I fully appreciate that you probably won’t constantly buy an extra bag for a whole year, but that’s how some items become short surely.

We hear news about a shortage of something and the comments start to come in about buying more / stockpiling. I referred to it in my previous comment as panic buying but this phrase was not liked by some.

There is a clear dividing line between stockpiling and panic buying. Panic buying, whether it is one or ten more, indicates people are reacting to an outside circumstance but stockpiling is thinking forward and planning for a possible situation.

Some comments I've read about people buying more re Brexit, I regard this as stockpiling. Similarly, I stockpile for winter incase there's bad weather. We don't yet know for sure what the outcome will be for either of these.
Comments about buying more flour etc because there will be a shortage, I regard as panic buying because we have been told there will be a poor harvest (an outside circumstance).

The definitions are not mine.

I've tried to justify my use of the phrase and accept that there will be some who will still disagree that they are panic buying following the news about flour.

Buying a little extra over a long period of time does not cause shortages. “Prepping”

Buying 6 at once when a shortage is likely is what causes the issues. “Panic buying”

I agree summerlove, this is what we are doing, and I fail to see how my buying 3 bags of ground coffee a week rather than 2 is going to impact anyone. As a home baker, I always have lots of flour in the larder and I shall be ensuring that I have ample supplies at all times, and not risk 'leaving it to next time I shop'. I fully expect food shortages from January onwards when the no deal Brexit kicks in and I do not wish to be scrabbling for the last pack of loo rolls when it happens.

Food prices for basics like bread and milk are kept artificially low by supermarkets using them as loss leaders. Prices are higher in most other countries, the time you have to work to buy a loaf of bread has never been lower, if expensive convenience foods are chosen, don’t grumble about cost.

The Import Tariff on wheat is quite low around £5 per ton so is not significantly, it’s global supply and exchange rate that determines price. Sterling is currently low and causing increased food prices, many commodities are traded at global prices regardless of origin. With Brexit tariffs are not going to change much, the US wants no tariffs, probably a limited quantity will be tariff free.

Currently wheat price is high so bread prices will be a few pence higher but there will be no shortage, any panic buying will be self defeating, it will go stale before it’s used.

I also think that, relatively speaking, some food isn't that expensive in the UK. Items such as fresh fish, and some meat can be, but fruit and vegetables aren't too bad. When on holiday in Europe, I always found fruit more expensive. Last year, in the USA, I found food expensive, but, of course, the exchange rate wasn't in our favour.

I am surprised about the food being cheaper in the UK than other European countries it certainly doesn’t feel like it! Certainly our shopping bills are very high but we do eat a lot of plant based things and tons of fresh fruit and veg which is all quite dear!

W49, you're a gem. Really appreciate your help. Thanks.

HurdyGurdy

WOODMOUSE49

Saggi

Don’t eat bread so don’t really care.... but stocking up!! Doesn’t that cause shortages for people who can’t ‘stock up’. Doesn’t seem nice,

I so agree. It both saddens and angers me to see GN comments encouraging panic buying. Lessons are never learnt by some.

Who's encouraged panic buying though? Stocking up at a slow pace, maybe adding one or two extra to your usual shop, but leaving plenty for everyone else, doesn't strike me as panic buying.

I've been doing this for weeks now, anticipating a second lockdown with a return to actual panic buying. I've a good stock of tins, jars and packets and I don't believe that by buying two extra cans of chopped tomatoes a week has left shortages for anyone else.

To me, panic buying is going in and literally clearing the shelves of things you don't even necessarily need, want or use.

An example of rational behaviour!

I bet a lot of us are doing the same.

WOODMOUSE49

Saggi

Don’t eat bread so don’t really care.... but stocking up!! Doesn’t that cause shortages for people who can’t ‘stock up’. Doesn’t seem nice,

I so agree. It both saddens and angers me to see GN comments encouraging panic buying. Lessons are never learnt by some.

Who's encouraged panic buying though? Stocking up at a slow pace, maybe adding one or two extra to your usual shop, but leaving plenty for everyone else, doesn't strike me as panic buying.

I've been doing this for weeks now, anticipating a second lockdown with a return to actual panic buying. I've a good stock of tins, jars and packets and I don't believe that by buying two extra cans of chopped tomatoes a week has left shortages for anyone else.

To me, panic buying is going in and literally clearing the shelves of things you don't even necessarily need, want or use.

mittenma yes, you are right about my earlier post - I didn't mention the inexorable effects of climate change. I do think that this will change everything especially longer-term.

The OP was about this year though, and although the harvest has been very poor here as well as in many parts of Europe and the Black Sea region, there are other areas (according to the IGC) that haven't been so badly hit.

I don't know what has happened in Canada for example - which grows a lot of wheat that produces strong flour.

If we are having to import more, wherever it comes from, after Brexit it's likely to be more expensive because of taxes than it would be otherwise.

Saggi

Don’t eat bread so don’t really care.... but stocking up!! Doesn’t that cause shortages for people who can’t ‘stock up’. Doesn’t seem nice,

Buying a little extra over a long period of time does not cause shortages. “Prepping”

Buying 6 at once when a shortage is likely is what causes the issues. “Panic buying”

I wonder how much flour got chucked because it was out of date before people used it, those who over bought in lockdown.

It doesn’t help to be told there will be shortages, and that prices will rise. Sometimes I think ignorance is bliss.

There are 3 basic types of wheat grown in the UK, used for Bread, Biscuits and Animal feed. They are not interchangeable, in a good Year UK wheat can supply our needs but some is imported for special products.

This year Bread wheat is going to be very short and probably 50% will have to be imported, prices will be higher but there will be no shortage. There is ample global supply and flour mills are geared up to efficiently handle imports likely to come from Canada and the US.

If anyone does buy a sack of flour keep it well enclosed in a cool place. Flour can become infested, especially in warm damp weather.

craftyone

panic buying is people not being organised for eg a coming cold season and perhaps snow, so the weather forcast comes on and there is snow and they panic buy. Many of us are preppers and have been rural/semi-rural during bad winters, we never let bad winters catch us out. It is called being prudent and we have well stocked cupboards. That is good housekeeping, nothing less

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panic buying is people not being organised for eg a coming cold season and perhaps snow, so the weather forcast comes on and there is snow and they panic buy. Many of us are preppers and have been rural/semi-rural during bad winters, we never let bad winters catch us out. It is called being prudent and we have well stocked cupboards. That is good housekeeping, nothing less

@NotSpaghetti I'm sorry but you seemed to be saying that import tax was the problem and not climate impacts, which is the problem this time and in the future. Deals with other countries will not make any difference as, all countries will be struggling to feed their populations.