Why is UK one of the worst hit?

Cun I think you’ve set yourself an impossible task. I doubt you’ll get weekly deaths for other countries in general. Ours are still provisional but published which seems unusual but I don’t know why. The data obviously exists but doesn’t seem to be publicly ( or easily available). On the site I linked to, you can get monthly figures for past years but I’m not sure where that would take you. Where are you trying to go btw? Are you suspicious of German figures and think if you could get weekly figures of all deaths and compare them with previous years, you’d see the excess death rate and compare that with the CV death numbers? I doubt you’ll get that info

Our Office of National Statistics is publishing weekly deaths with a comparison with previous years. I would be surprised if Germany doesn't do the same. It's a matter of finding it!

Richard Murphy published the ONS figures up to 3rd April (they're published every Tuesday) on his blog, here:

www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/04/14/coronavirus-excess-deaths-are-likely-to-be-more-than-double-the-government-reported-numbers/

MaizieD Yes, I am aware of the UK ONS figures. I was able to download the spreadsheet on Tuesday and commented on them on another thread. I think it was 'Less Deaths Due to Cancer'.

suziewoozie I am just looking at the most obvious reasons why Germany might look so good at this stage. Weekly TOTAL death figures might be a better guide or provide a better perspective as our ONS figures did on Tuesday. It may be a hopeless task but I'm a bit like a dog with a bone once I get interested. As I have said before, until all the statistical and clinical evidence is available, we won't get a full picture but I think the most obvious questions can be examined.

By the way, Suzie, please could you use my full alias. The shortened version looks a little too unfinished for comfort.

Apologies for teaching my grandparent to suck eggs, Cunco.

I confess that I didn't read the cancer deaths thread because I couldn't get past the grammatical error in the thread title...

Cunco I think the range of explanations already given in a range of good sources is the answer as to their better numbers. Their numbers are perhaps changing now ( time will tell) because they’re perhaps losing the early advantage of having a larger proportion of young people affected with their corresponding better survival rates.

suziewoozie You may well be right and maybe I am wasting my time but, for me, there are a lot of loose ends. The impact of greater concentration of people impacting on death rates is another one. It seems an obvious line to pursue. None may tell the whole story but it may add few lines.

MaizieD You are forgiven; and your explanation is entirely reasonable. ?

Apparently the mean age of those infected in Germany is in the mid 40s, but that's probably because they test more and they know that younger people are infected rather than just guesswork. That would undoubtedly account for the low percentage of deaths amongst those infected. Berlin is Germany's biggest city and there's overcrowding in many quarters. It would not be surprising if many are/have been infected. However, Berlin also has a very young population, who would be less likely to die.

Nothing tells the full story - understanding all aspects of demography is extremely complex and multi factorial. Occasionally there’s a really important aspect that really skews the figures and our understanding. The failure to include deaths in the community and care homes is one dreadful example - and one shared by many countries. As I understand it, only Germany, Ireland and France have been including these figures in daily totals.

Some explanation for the source of Germany's figures:

"In reporting on the coronavirus pandemic, unless otherwise specified, DW uses figures provided by the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) Coronavirus Resource Center in the United States. JHU updates figures in real time, collating data from world health organizations, state and national governments and other public official sources, all of whom have their own systems for compiling information.

Germany's national statistics are compiled by its public health agency, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). These figures depend on data transmission from state and local levels and are updated around once a day, which can lead to deviation from JHU."

www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-what-are-germanys-updated-lockdown-measures/a-53139313

twitter.com/i/status/1250563198081740800

Merkel explaining how Germany is trying to manage the infection. Maybe it helps that she's a scientist. It also helps that Germany is a coalition and a federal system. People aren't trying to score political points and each state has been free to act locally and more quickly than going through a national ministry.

Slowing down the rate of infection will prolong it, so it depends on Germany being able to support people, which it probably can.

Has anyone just watched "Newsnight"? It too was discussing issues relating to exit strategies, our own high number of deaths from CV, etc. It also discussed why the UK has taken such a big hit.

Surely, as we are part of the same land mass apart from North Ireland, we should initially have had an advantage over the rest of Europe. Their land borders were completely open at the start and their citizens were easily able to, and did, visit neighbouring countries for business, entertainment and other purposes.

The number of dead from CV in Germany is around 4,000 and the number here is around 13,000, even though we have a significantly smaller population. Looking at the footage of Angela Merkel explaining, in a press conference, her strategy for relaxing their lockdown restrictions, it became quite obvious that she was fully able to apply what appeared to be her very able statistical analysis, relating to contagion and transference levels, to what actions needed to be taken. I have not seen our PM and his ministers show any evidence that they have similar in depth knowledge and understanding.

The Newsnight journalist described how, initially, Germany and the UK "set off" at the same time. At the start they were both testing for the virus and collecting data - though even then Germany was carrying out more tests. Then, on 12 March, the PM said the UK was moving away from "containment" to "delay". Chris Wittie went on to say it would mean moving away from the idea of mass testing and tracing contacts. Germany, on the other hand, stepped up the testing and tracing of contacts. The Newsnight commentator suggested this was "as much to do with capacity", i.e. that we did not have the resources available to do it.

A former Conservative health minister, Steve Brine, was interviewed. He was very defensive about the government's performance during this crisis and refuted the idea that there was no proper planning for handling the crisis or exiting the lockdown. He referred to the five point "plan" that Hancock has set out. It was pointed out that this wasn't really a plan but just a set of objectives, basically focusing on marshalling all public and private facilities to carry out testing in order to protect frontline staff and vulnerable people, and to properly map and monitor what is actually happening. The testing issue has been going on for some time now, with various promises being made as to numbers of tests to be carried out, which have not been met. The former minister then changed tack and made a barbed comment implying that the BBC was, as expected, biased in its criticisms. Finally, he said the main thing is to find a vaccine and all that could be done at the moment was for people to stay at home. His analysis and conclusion didn't fill me with confidence.

France has almost the same size population as the UK, with a much bigger area. yet their published figures are worse than ours. And look at little Belgium, and Switzerland!
A lot of the differences must be due to recorduing methods.
The Germans have a reputation for being hard working and systematic.

The Chinese tests purchased by UK are faulty that is surely the Chinese Companies fault not the UK Government’s.

am not trawling through loads of pages before I reply to the OP.... it seems to me that we are not one of the worst, unless the whole of Europe is the worst. At the moment we are behind France, Spain and Italy, although Italy was ahead of us and badly hit.
Who know how Germany record the deaths of virus patients,
but it would seem they may well list heart failure say as the cause, even if the patient has the virus.
as for China being honest...all bets are off!

Also lemongrove figures in Wales are showing huge disparity.

North, mid and south west Wales health boards have had only 12 deaths whereas south east accounts for 594. Even allowing for just over twice the population living in the SE those figures are intriguing- any ideas anyone?

I didn't watch the programme Eloethan, but your resume is consistent with my understanding. If you've watch Angela Merkel's interview, it's obvious why she's known as "Mutti Merkel". Mind you, she does have a doctorate in quantum chemistry, which is probably why she has a grasp of statistics, which seems to elude most of our politicians.

Even Germany acknowledges that it can do nothing to stop the infection. What it's doing is managing it, by trying to ensure that cross-infection is kept to a minimum. Merkel knows that, in the end, just as many in Germany are likely to be infected, but she wants those who do catch it to have the best medical treatment available. Therefore, she wants to keep the curve flat, so that heath services aren't overwhelmed.

There's pressure in Germany too for the lockdown to be eased, but she's having none of it and explained very clearly why it has to continue in the short term. Public health in Germany isn't a national responsibility, but of the 14 federal states. Each decides how it enforces the lockdown and the health ministers are from different political parties. Therefore, there is less political point scoring and watching backs. Merkel is a tough cookie and not prone to giving in to populist foot stamping. The lockdown, testing and contact tracing will carry on in Germany for as long there's a need.

My guess is it has to do with population density Pantglas and whether people travel on crowded transport to work. The rate in the East of England, which is relatively sparsely populated, is quite low.

lemongrove The UK doesn't list Covid-19, if a patient dies from heart failure, even if people are infected when they die.

Fennel Over half the cases in France have been in Grand Est, which is a predominantly industrial area in the east of France, and the Ile de France, which is the Paris region and is densely populated. Most of rural France has had relatively few cases.

Thanks Growstuff - you’re probably right on the transport aspect, they are rural areas with poor bus/train links for work purposes.

However I had expected a higher death rate due to the older population, particularly in north Wales- lots of people retire here from the cities of Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham and probably further afield. I shall be watching these figures with interest.

Another aspect is the basic level of fitness in the population. Which will affect immunity/resilience to infection.
I don't know how you can measure that.

ps probably lower in urban than rural populations.