Less deaths due to cancer

Callistemon I would not argue with that, there will be people who are already ill and near there end, who get Covid, as a result go to hospital and die from Covid. There will be those already in hospital and dying,who then get Covid and this accelerates their death and there will be those dying of other causes, who have the virus present after death, but had picked it up so recently that they had as yet no symptoms and it played no part in their deaths.

But that is all irrelevant, with no idea of the prevalance of the disease in the whole population and with only those tested and known to have Covid registered, rightly or wrongly, as dying from it, all untested deaths, whether Covid or not, presumably being attributed to other causes.

The government figures are about as accurate as figures drawn from a hat. The best that is possible, is to use the dirction of registered hospital Covid deaths as a guide to whether the pandemic is waxing or waning.

Monica they don’t all go to hospital to die unfortunately - many are treated at home by community nurses or in care homes by their staff who are having to deal with very unpleasant deaths with respiratory distress. The numbers dying in hospital are not telling the true picture.

Monica I think we agree. The ONS figures are the most accurate, subject to an element of human error and differing medical opinion over the cause of death. We will possibly only ever know whether COVID-19 was present at the time of death but it will clearly be the main or total cause in some cases. A full analysis of all the factors will only be possible after the statistical and clinical data for the virus becomes available.

SirChenjin The ONS data includes all registered deaths, not only those from hospitals, as well as the numbers by region. A drawback is that the data lags the present by at least 2 weeks so while it is useful and largely accurate, it is inevitably behind the curve in a rapidly changing situation.

SirChenjin, that is what I said and why the government figures are not a good guide.

There are also people who are nowhere near the end but whose immune systems are suppressed for one reason or another who may get this.

No they’re really not Monica

I’m aware of how the ONS reports deaths but I would question whether it’s ‘largely accurate’ at this time. How are you quantifying that?

Sorry, trying to do two things at once.

They’re really not accurate Monica, I agree.

The second paragraph to Cunco.

Interesting. Must say I’d been wondering about the daily U.K. death rate in normal times.

Death certificates have always had Primary cause, secondary cause, haven’t they!

I know my husbands death certificate listed pneumonia as the primary cause and leukaemia as secondary, although he wouldn’t have had pneumonia if he hadn’t have had leukaemia.

Statistically it’s going to be almost impossible to unravel.

It’s like the massive figures for death due to heart failure. That’s what it usually says when someone has just died of old age. Their heart stopped beating but there has to be some cause of death on the certificate.

We'll never know the true figures but knowing pandemics it'll be in the millions, not thousands as has been reported.
Seasonal 'flu kills thousands, pandemics kill millions.

Sadly, as expected, the latest ONS data published today for the week to 3 April shows a substantial rise in deaths in England & Wales at 16, 387 [compared with 11,141 in the previous week and 10,305 for the comparable average over the past 5 years]. The latest figures include 3,475 where COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate. Total deaths comprise 48% in hospital; 24% at home; 23% in care homes; and 5% elsewhere. The main categories all showed significant increases in number of deaths.

As a consequence, total deaths in 2020 to 3 April have now overtaken the comparable average by 2,271 to 166,444.

Grim reading but not unexpected. I will keep an eye on the numbers but will probably only update if people think it is useful.

For those of us in Scotland www.gov.scot/news/additional-covid-19-daily-data-published/

SirChenjin If the reporting of deaths is delayed by the state of emergency, it could lead to errors which would need to be corrected over time. Otherwise, I would imagine the totals and figures by region and place of death would be as accurate as they normally are, subject to human error. I think they are good a guide as we are likely to get at this time, no more no less.

The COVID-19 data simply reflects whether the term appears anywhere on the death certificate. You can make of that what you like but it doesn't pretend to be more than it is.

It’s difficult to say what the margin of error is likely to be at these unprecedented times - time will tell I’m sure.

6,000 more deaths than the same week last year.

Again I need to find the source but I'm sure I read that the number of homeless people dying in New York has increased eight fold during the pandemic.

Thanks to all for comments. I gather there are around 6000 extra deaths from all causes compared to last year and it seems likely many of these were in fact due to other causes unrelated to coronavirus. As UK population is over 66 million I dont know what percentage that is, but I would say a small one. How has this been calculated to be a pandemic and does this minuscule figure really justify us all being stuck indoors fearing for our lives and unable to see our families.

This explains it in more detail Grany www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

Yes have read opinion of BBC thanks, I would like to know what Gransnet readers think

A pandemic is an infectious disease which has spread over a wide geographical area Granny52, in this case most of the world.

Gran if many of us weren’t ‘stuck indoors’ the number of deaths would be beyond dreadful. Haven’t you understood the reasons behind what’s happening?

Obviously... and?

If it's obvious I am puzzled why you are asking

You want to know what GNetters think? I think that the facts are the things to be concerning yourself with. HTH.