Less deaths due to cancer

I’m confused Gran by your posts. You seem to be enormously downplaying the situation. If I’ve understood the ONS figures correctly, the ve rage number of deaths per week at this time of the year is around 10,000- if there’s a 6,000 excess, that’s an enormous increase. Also, we know that not everyone who dies in a care home is actually seen by a doctor- doctors are filling in causes of death through a third party discussion. I think it’s accepted that not saying covid on a death certificate doesn’t mean it wasn’t involved in some way - either directly or contributory.

The facts are in that BBC article I linked to btw.

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'Gran if many of us weren’t ‘stuck indoors’ the number of deaths would be beyond dreadful. Haven’t you understood the reasons behind what’s happening'.....
...and also many of us started self isolating quite a while before the government advised us to; just imagine the death rate if we hadn't done so.

Nowhere near 25,000 people die in road accidents in the UK.

The number in 2018 was approx 1,800 people. Still too many, of course, but far short of 25,000.
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-in-great-britain-provisional-estimates-year-ending-june-2018

I can't help but feel that people who are trying to convince themselves that this isn't as bad a crisis as everyone is making out are also members of the flat earth society...

I suspect it’s a way of justifying to themselves why they can still see their friends and families.

Quizqueen - thank you!
I have resisted but the “less deaths “ just jumped out at me every time I looked at the “Active Threads” .
However as this is not Pedants’ Corner, I forbore!

Oh dear quizqueen when you get the figures for road deaths so incredibly wrong, I do wonder where you are getting your information from.

I forbore too!!!!! Me too....

I understand now that it wasn’t a genuine question in the OP. Just a way in to expressing an opinion.

Wish I hadn’t commented now......

Gran52 There were 6000 extra deaths in one week. If that were to happen every week for a year, that would be 312,000 extra deaths.

Approximately 600,000 deaths occur in a year in the UK, so that would be a 50% increase. I wouldn't call that a miniscule increase.

I think what some of us are trying to do, growstuff is to bring some critical thinking to the issue of the CV statistics and how they are reported.

I don't think anyone on here is underplaying anything at all.

But an absolute daily figure, without context, means nothing.

Every time I see the heading I want to say
'Fewer'

I did refrain because I didn't want to be told off and it is a serious subject.
But yes, 'fewer', not less

6000 extra deaths in one week is a truly shocking figure. We can only guess at what is behind this increase. My guess is that it's people dying in the community without diagnosis and many will be elderly.

Me too, Callistemon!

oldgimmer I don't understand your post. The fact that the figure is showing that there were 6000 extra deaths in one week is giving a context.

Deaths per week tend to increase during the winter months, so that's why the comparison with the same week over the last five years is chilling. It's approximately 50% more than the average of the previous five years. It's consistent with the announced Covid deaths during that week.

The numbers are reported every day, DaisyMae.

As* growstuff* says, consistent with what has been reported, although the true figure may be more.

Old the daily figures aren’t absolute at all and those of us who bother to read up are well aware of the context, limitations and meaning of the daily figures.

Callistemon That's even more worrying.

I'm surprised that there are still people trying to explain away the figures somehow and claim that these deaths would have happened anyway. Of course there's an overlap. The majority of people have been over 80 and/or had underlying health conditions but the fact these are extra deaths shows that something which is usually present (in this case Covid-19) is responsible for extra deaths.

'Less', 'fewer' ?? for goodness sake get a life.... oh ....no you can't at the moment

Suzie most people don't bother to read up though.

My issue is with the reporting. All that's given is a figure - the overnight death toll plus the number of deaths. Very little, if any, context.

We need fewer attention-grabbing headlines, and more critical thinking.

There’s plenty of critical thinking and context for those who wish to avail themselves of it. The remainder are still having difficulty understanding what 2m looks like and what ‘no gatherings of more than 2 people unless they are from the same household’ means - so I doubt they’re at the stage of reading rapid evidence reviews on covid.

There seems to be some confusion over the figures. There are 2 sets of figures.

There are those released every day which show identified cases of COVID-19 and 'COVID-19' deaths. These mainly reflect COVID-19 testing of hospital patients and NHS staff.

There is a second set of statistics published every week by the Office of National Statistics [ONS] of all registered deaths in England and Wales, including those at home, hospital, care homes and elsewhere. They are published with a 2 week lag and received greater coverage yesterday because the data was for the week to April 3, the first when COVID-19 had a substantial impact. As mentioned previously, and subject to caveats, these are probably the more accurate in terms of numbers, location and region but not totally clear on the cause of death.

We must expect grim reading from the ONS figures for some further weeks, particularly as they are published with a 2 week lag. As the lock-down impacts, the number of deaths should subside towards the average but we don't know what the next set of numbers for the week to April 10 will reveal or the shape of the profile thereafter. We must hope that an extra 6,000 per week above the average for the rest of the year would be extremely pessimistic; but, actually, nobody knows.

A full analysis, including assessment of the many factors impacting on the outcome, is some time off. Meanwhile, those of us who are elderly and/or vulnerable should take all precautions possible not to join the statistics.

Cunco I agree with your last sentence wholeheartedly. Whoever is responsible or to blame for anything, we all need to take responsibility for ourselves. The facts relating to elderly people, especially those with underlying conditions are fairly unequivocal.

I'd just like to add something to your explanation of the ONS figures. The ones which have been published were registered deaths in the week ending 3 April, so the deaths could have occurred some days beforehand - probably in the third week of March, when the government was still only reporting a couple of hundred deaths per day. There's quite a significant difference and I expect that will continue for some weeks.

Of the 6000 extra deaths, apparently 3500 were reported as Covid-19 related on the death certificates. As many of us know, death certificates don't always tell the whole story. Of the remaining 2500, some could have been for people whose conditions were made worse - others could have been people who weren't treated as a result of pressure on the NHS. Who knows? I'd be surprised if we have another new deadly illness floating around.

The fact is that there were more deaths in that week than the average in the equivalent week for five years. Hopefully, the figure will go down.