Lockdown Over

I have good reason to believe that a lot of deaths which have occurred over this lockdown period have been attributed to Covid 19 even if its obvious the actual cause was from something else. The upshot is these numbers we see are incorrect, so I feel as though I’ve locked down under false pretences, consequently I can’t wait to go into a shop instead of taking deliveries of groceries. The prospect of going to the butchers has never been so exciting. I will wear a mask and gloves and be mindful of safe distancing but I’m ready now to get back out there and live life.
Thought for the day ‘don’t be scared of living life, it will end for sure one day then you might regret the time spent worrying.’

Quite a small proportion of hospitalised people actually die from the virus.

That seems like a cheering thought, until you remember that most of the very vulnerable people have been in strict lockdown for weeks.

I am not particularly vulnerable, just old, but I am very worried for everyone and for what may happen.

I think it is very unfair of adult kids to put pressure on grandparents to do that, at present.

Older people are, in general, more likely to become ill with the virus and you could become infected by your grandchildren although they have no symptoms.

Megan1968 - as far as I know, you cannot have your grandchildren to stay overnight and your adult children should not ask you to do so.

If I am wrong, I apologise.

No, but I would imagine it comes under the same social distancing rules as any visits from family and friends - to be avoided as it brings people into contact with people from another household, increasing the risk of spreading the virus.

This Age UK site www.ageuk.org.uk/information-advice/coronavirus/coronavirus-guidance/social-distancing-and-self-isolation/ says -

"Social distancing

This means people who are not 'extremely vulnerable' should only leave the house for limited purposes. These are:

Shopping for basic necessities, for example food and medicine, which must be as infrequent as possible and online delivery used wherever available.
One form of exercise a day, for example a run, walk, or cycle – alone or with members of your household. You should stay local and use open spaces near to your home where possible- do not travel unnecessarily.
Any medical need, including to donate blood, avoid or escape risk of injury or harm, or to provide care or to help a vulnerable person.
Travelling to and from work, but only where this absolutely cannot be done from home.

The Government has made clear that these four reasons are exceptions and you should not otherwise leave your home. This applies to your grandchildren too! They should keep away from you, and you should keep away from them

For these activities you should continue to observe the advice to remain at least 2 metres apart from others (excluding members of your own household) and minimise time outside.

The Government has also closed all non-essential shops and community spaces. Unless you are with members of your household, gatherings of more than two people in parks and public spaces have been banned.

If you are aged 70 or over, pregnant, or have a long-term condition, you are more at risk, so you may want to think about asking someone to pick up medication and food for you where possible, as well as doing any exercise indoors or, if you have one, in your garden and take extra steps to minimise time spent outside the home.

Hi there all,does anyone have information on rules on overnights for the grankids staying over due to covid19,as like some grandparents we are getting pressure from our grown up kids to start looking after the kids again and to start overnights again

I think this think will affect us all mentally for a long time. I worry about my four year old grandson. He has always been a bit obsessive about germs and washing his hands (not a bad thing!), but I think once we can have contact again he is going to take a long time to relax and be happy about kisses and cuddles with us. It makes me so sad.

There’s a lot of scaremongering going on here.
I occasionally wash door handles, switches, phones etc. But not every twenty minutes or so, it’s just too much. It’s bordering on neurosis.

Sorry your name should be Kwest

Yes Quest there is a danger that we become obsessed (or should I say more obsessed) especially those of us with OCD, agoraphobia and so on. I think there will be a lot more behavioural problems requiring therapy.

I feel reassured by hearing that other people have this secret fear of the lock-down being lifted. I thought that part of me was secretly going mad. When my husband goes to the shop at the end of our drive to pick up the papers and order we have texted earlier, the owner, who has been amazing, meets him outside the shop and hands over the order at the prescribed distance. We put the papers in the bottom oven of the AGA for about 20 minutes, I secretly worry that my husband will have picked up the virus, even though he wears gloves and a scarf over his mouth and nose. We leave parcels, ordered online outside for about half a day before bringing them in to open.
We do lots of hand-washing. But still underneath appearing calm, I worry. Frankly I am terrified of the day it is announced that everyone can mingle again.

I wish someone had explained it in this country, in words of one syllable on peak-time TV - such as just before one of the soaps - so that the reasons for all the restrictions were clear in everyone's minds. There might then have been 100% co-operation in lowering the infection rate and in keeping it lowered.

Angela Merkel explained it all in full detail a few days ago. The German R0 rate is currently below 1, which is why the country is cautiously lifting some restrictions. I couldn't find any details of the UK R0 rate either, but given the lack of testing, I doubt if anybody really knows. The new case and death numbers would suggest it's still above 1.

Thanks Elegran very interesting reading.

No more detail anywhere than "almost certainly below one in the community" from Raab.

The recommendation (and aim) is that the infection rate has to be at 1 (each case only infecting one other person, and thus keeping the infection rate manageable) before it is safe to even consider ending lockdown, and we should be considering what effect any easing of particular restrictions would have on that rate.

If the rate were at 0.7, that sounds great - but opening schools is predicted to raise it 0.2. That would mean that any other easing of restrictions would put it over 1 and cause the infection graph to take an upward turn - and stopping social distancing or isolation would raise it by 0.6, putting it up to 1.5 and unacceptable. Doing both would raise it to 1.7, or almost twice the recommended level for relaxing restrictions.

^" What do R0 values mean?

Three possibilities exist for the potential transmission or decline of a disease, depending on its R0 value:^

If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will be transmitted between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic." www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#meaning

(I have heard from someone that the UK rate is 0.7 at the moment - but I suspect that may have been confused with the German 0.7 rate. I can't find anything online about the UK rate - maybe someone else can.)

Hopefully there will be only recommendations and personal judgement on this as they are going to do in France.

It seems we will be locked down for a lot longer yet

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/older-people-could-face-extended-coronavirus-lockdown-lords-hears

people will have to get their heads around the fact that unfortunately a lot more people will have to die in order to keep the country from total economic collapse.

Leaving aside our concerns for the health of ourselves and our families, if these necessary deaths (preceded by illness obviously) take place all at once the system won't be able to cope.

Here is another piece about ". . . with growing evidence we are over peak, how close are we to meeting those five tests? And what else needs to be done?"
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52374513

I lost a "not" there - should be "80% of us who have had NOT had the virus"

Reversing the lockdown won't be easy or quick. It will have to be very carefully managed,or the 80% of us who have had the virus will be suddenly exposed to it on all sides. I hope the authorities (and employers) are listening to people like those in this link.

theconversation.com/lockdown-uk-four-experts-explain-how-to-end-it-136436#Echobox=1587135072

Phoebes, a lot of people suspect that they've already had it. They hope they have immunity.

However, there's no reliable scientific evidence to confirm that immunity follows infection (especially in mild cases) or lasts very long.

Beau1958, there is nothing to prevent you continuing 'lockdown' until you feel confident that the threat is over.

Your husband can stay away - and you can resist the temptation to see your grandchildren.

Of course there will be a second wave of infections, it's inevitable. Don't be in the next batch of victims!

I am dreading the return to "normal" too.
Once more the noise, pollution, traffic, Friday night drunks etc etc will start again.
Once again, us humans will foul our own nest......