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Coronavirus

Statistics, Lies or reassurance.

(45 Posts)
trisher Wed 22-Apr-20 09:35:20

The Financial Times today published figures for deaths by Covid 19 which are almost 4 times the government figures. The care Minister questioned by Piers Morgan couldn't give exact figures but insisted these were wrong. She also gave the wrong number of NHS and care worker deaths. So what's going on? Don't they actually know? Are they afraid to face up to the criticism or are they trying to keep us reassured?
www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

growstuff Mon 27-Apr-20 17:38:15

You've answered our own question maddyone. Your son had "parents who encouraged him every step of the way", which isn't surprising as they were teachers. Many children don't. In some cases they even come from families who discourage academic learning as only for "toffs" - you must have come across parents like that yourself. Unfortunately, it can often be the grandparents who have the lowest regard for tertiary education. These days, many families without a history of tertiary education don't understand the student loan system either. There's a lot of research on "cultural capital", which is considered to be a major factor in why some children don't aspire to university, especially Oxbridge.

varian Mon 27-Apr-20 17:09:24

I am sure your son is very clever and having two teacher parents he no doubt got great encouragement and support with his education. I am sure that you had a home with books and learning resources which many ordinary homes lack.

You must be proud of him, especially as he got to Oxbridge without the leg-up of a private school education.

The number of state-school educated students at Oxford or Cambridge is far less that the proportion in the general population. It is still the case that very priveleged private school pupils are far more likely to get that opportunity than your son, let alone the children of poorly educated working class state school pupils, who might very well have far more abilty.

maddyone Sat 25-Apr-20 00:08:36

varian
Could you please point out to me exactly what privileges you think my son had, with two teachers as his parents, a bricklayer and a cleaner as one set of grandparents, and an engineer and teaching assistant as his other grandparents. I would very much like to know what privileges you think my son had during his early life, apart from parents who encouraged him every step of the way.

And no, we don’t need to question why Oxbridge graduates do well in life because the answer is well known, it’s because they are extremely highly educated and a degree from Oxbridge is recognised as being ‘Ivy League’ as they call it in America.

varian Fri 24-Apr-20 19:46:42

Not everyone who went to Oxford University or Cambridge University, commonly referred to as "Oxbridge" are either clever or stupid, but they are all very priviledged in our society, and perhaps that should be questioned.

maddyone Fri 24-Apr-20 11:56:27

I don’t know what she’s doing trisher, I saw her once on television and I agree she wasn’t giving very good answers at all. However in my post I was really addressing a more general point about people who go to Oxbridge, and there are sadly some very unpleasant Oxbridge bashers out there, as I said I’ve come across it myself.

trisher Fri 24-Apr-20 11:17:17

Of course very clever people go to Oxford and some very clever people aren't capable of tying their own shoelaces. There is no doubt that the Minister for Care is failing massively in her duties. Gov UK lists her duties as
adult social care
health/care integration
workforce
dementia, disabilities and long-term conditions
abortion
NHS Continuing Healthcare
NHS security management including cyber security
research and life sciences
blood and transplants, organ donation
sponsorship of:
HRA
NHSBT
HTA
HFE
HEE
If anyone can show evidence of what she is actually doing I would like to know. Surely if Matt Hancock is doing the PM's work she should be contributing massively by talking on more. I think she is probably quite happy to let him carry the can.

maddyone Fri 24-Apr-20 11:08:09

Well my son did go to Oxford, the original, traditional Oxford, not the ex Polytechnic at Oxford. He worked extremely hard to get there, and he worked extremely hard when he was there, and he managed to get himself a First Class Degree in Jurisprudence. He is now a barrister at a top London set of chambers, one of the four top sets in the country, consistently year on year.
I don’t know anything about PPE routes or degrees, but I do know about Oxbridge bashing, and I have been subjected to it directly, once from a very rude and unpleasant person, who made a very nasty remark to me about Oxford students, and indirectly from a person who was giving a lecture.
All I can say is these are sad and embittered individuals. My son was not born with a silver spoon in his mouth, we were both teachers, one of his grandads was a bricklayer. My son achieved well and I am proud of him.

lemongrove Thu 23-Apr-20 20:19:01

Hetty you may be amused, but nevertheless it’s true.Anyone who gets into Oxford or Cambridge and attains a good degree is very clever indeed.DH was a teacher who helped sixth formers who were very intelligent but had difficulty in interviews ( Aspergers, the very shy, the ones who had a slight stutter or low self esteem) and many of them did attain a place there and went on to do extremely well.
Not everybody who is very intelligent also manages to be articulate and charming or fantastic speakers, and this is just as true in politicians as in any profession.
It has become fashionable to have a go at Oxbridge candidates in some ( usually left wing) quarters, by saying that almost anyone could get in, and a lot of students are thick/ stupid etc.
Nothing could be further from the truth.

Barmeyoldbat Thu 23-Apr-20 19:42:45

I am not impressed by any of them, in fact I have stopped watching the daily briefings and news as half the time I can't understand what the hell they are doing and also because they keep on churning out the same old stuff. Maybe Boris will be back next week to add more hot air.

varian Thu 23-Apr-20 19:23:29

I am not impressed with Mr Witty

winterwhite Thu 23-Apr-20 10:29:38

I thought part of the problem with recording Covid-19 as cause of death in care homes is because no GP attended to certify cause of death and the person had not been tested.
It seems to me a red herring for the govt to suddenly start introducing total deaths as well as Covid deaths. Bound to confuse.
As to cleverness, it has always been possible to be both very clever and very stupid, as I thought Dr Whitty was last night in sternly telling the nation that social distancing has to continue for another year.

Hetty58 Thu 23-Apr-20 09:43:24

Lemongrove Your views on Oxbridge:

'Anyone who gets there, and completes their degree course is clever, whether anyone likes that fact or not'

very amusing - I can only assume you didn't go!

trisher Thu 23-Apr-20 09:37:46

The various other causes of death and the reluctance of doctors to state Covid was the cause of death especialy in the early days is covered in the article
Prof Spiegelhalter said that coronavirus was not given as the cause on many of the death certificates but was likely to be a direct or indirect factor. He said many doctors would initially have been reluctant to designate the virus as the cause on death certificates as it was a new disease and they could not have been certain.
Some of those who died from other causes may have been too scared to attend hospital or did not want to be a burden on the health service so they could be seen as possible indirect victims of the virus, he argued. But he added, the sheer number of deaths caused by the virus meant, “there is no suggestion that the collateral damage — however large it is — is anything like as big as the harm from Covid”
What seems absolutely certain is that the numbers being given by the government are completely unbelievable. Which leads to the question if they continue to behave as they are doing will people gradually lose confidence in them and stop listening?

growstuff Thu 23-Apr-20 09:27:30

What different name was that then lemongrove? hmm

Hetty58 Wed 22-Apr-20 23:39:04

Increased risk of cardiovascular events in the shielded - due to stress and lack of exercise? Risk assessment changes in ambulance crews? Would they be as likely to send somebody to hospital just in case?

lemongrove Wed 22-Apr-20 23:26:43

I doubt that Iam as anyone in the throes of a heart attack or stroke ( unless they live alone and collapse) will be shouting at the person they live with to ring the emergency services.
Surely?!

lemongrove Wed 22-Apr-20 23:23:18

Ah, growstuff I remember your views on Oxbridge students some time ago ( when you had a different name) also saying then, as now, how well qualified and educated your DD was
( she didn’t go to Oxford or Cambridge apparently though, according to you).Nonsense! Degrees from Oxbridge Colleges are not handed out like firsts from third rate universities.
Anyone who gets there, and completes their degree course is clever, whether anyone likes that fact or not.

Iam64 Wed 22-Apr-20 20:36:22

I wonder if the increase in non covid deaths is because people who fear they're having a heart attack or stroke, aren't presenting at A and E or their GP surgery as they usually would.

Hetty58 Wed 22-Apr-20 20:34:16

I bet a lot of poorly people are staying at home rather than risking a trip to the doctor or hospital. Some may not survive.

FarNorth Wed 22-Apr-20 20:18:14

The reason why non Covid-19 deaths have also increased is still unknown

Could it be that some of those people had Covid which did not show symptoms but which did put a strain on their system causing it to give in to heart problems etc?

growstuff Wed 22-Apr-20 20:02:08

It's quite extraordinary really. Whatever your political persuasion, look back at some of the "great" cabinets. They actually had people with talent, whether you agreed with them or not. This bunch has to be the most clueless, talentless group of people to be in a cabinet. They're there because they're sycophants and not going to rock the Brexit boat or challenge Johnson's ego.

growstuff Wed 22-Apr-20 19:57:45

I'm always bemused by the idea that a PPE from Oxford qualifies anybody for anything. A few years ago, I taught somebody who went to Oxford and is now an MP. I'm not surprised she is where she is, because she had pushy parents, but she really wasn't anything special.

My daughter is better qualified educationally than the majority of MPs in the cabinet. She'd actually be a fantastic MP, but I can't see her ever going down that route. She's not arrogant enough and is too good at her job to ever give it up.

growstuff Wed 22-Apr-20 19:50:43

Ken Clarke is probably too old, but there are a few amongst the younger generation who would fit the bill.

PS. As soon as Johnson regains his health, hopefully the first thing he'll do is sack Helen Whately. There's a generation of Conservative MPs, who really aren't up to the job. My own MP is one of those. Fortunately for her, she's been on maternity leave throughout all this, but we haven't missed her. She always was a waste of space and is only an MP because the good people of this constituency would rather eat worms than vote anything but Conservative.

Iam64 Wed 22-Apr-20 19:44:12

suziewoozie makes a reasonable point imo. The conservatives lost a number of good MP's when Mr J purged anyone who disagreed with him. The current group of Ministers are a poor lot, don't inspire confidence. Mat Hancock and Helen Whately seem particularly out of their comfort zones.
Ken Clarke anyone?

Davidhs Wed 22-Apr-20 19:29:27

There is obviously a large peak in deaths at home and in care homes this was expected, a large number would have had limited life expectancy and not lasted the year out. Rather than looking at the peak, the full year will most likely show a much lower “excess death” number in relation to the full year.

Never believe any statistics not even from the FT.