Theories, Conspiracies and other things

No trisher it isn’t an escaped virus it is zoonotic in origin. The scientists know that for sure.

Well obviously I’ve got a special interest in the BAME statistics.

I have trouble with the BAME classification though, because it just groups together a lot of very genetically diverse people in terms of what they are not ie not white ( but some of them are) not wealthy(but some of them are) not in the place they were born(but some of them are).

If you were Chinese, in China you wouldn’t be a BAME statistic, but in the UK you would be.

I don’t know how you’d engineer that virus!

Eglantine21 some are tying the BAME to low levels of Vit D. Of course if the main focus was the Chinese population other BAME would just be a side effect.

Yes I thought the vitaminD hypothesis was worth exploring, but really the umbrella BAME classification isn’t helpful in unpicking that because it includes such a diverse population.

I hope the research they’re doing actually seperates cultures and communities in terms of statistics. Then the picture will be clearer.

The vitamin D theory is interesting, but hopefully if it is proven correct those black folk living on or near the equator will be no more affected by the virus than white folk in the northern hemisphere etc.

Everything crossed it is as simple as that.

Personally I think it might have more to do with living conditions so there needs to be some very precise statistical analysis.

Eg are wealthy Asian communities as vunerable as poor Asian communities? If n terms of infection or outcome. What proportion of wealthy Asian communities are involved in medicine? (That will skew things) Do the communities mix at communal events?etc

Even the designation Asian will need unpicking because if different cultural practices.

Im no statistician but I can see this is very complicated.

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I thought it was a given that many BAME communities mix more that most of the rest. Compare the attendance at a mosque to our empty churches ( which could easily have continued with services by spreading out the dozen or so participants!) Even if mosque services are cancelled I expect extended families get together still. Also at the beginning many were not getting the message due to not understanding English, and I wonder how many are recent immigrants including illegal ones staying with friends/relatives?
It will be very interesting to see the full statistics in due course but we will never know the full facts or who would have died anyway, if not of COVID the next cold or cough that came their way.

I think BAME people are more likely to have risk factors for the virus, such as Type 2 diabetes.

BAME - Black, asian, minority ethnic. A very, very diverse group (including white groups) with no common denominator other than the way they are regarded by the majority ethnic group.

I can’t see that there will be anything that will apply to that whole group.

That might be so Eglantine21 but looking at the actual figures something very strange is going on. Looking at the percentages is one way of trying to work out things.
Among all staff employed by the NHS, BAME account for approximately 21 per cent, including approximately 20 per cent among nursing and support staff and 44 per cent among medial staff.
BAME individuals account for 63 per cent, 64 per cent and 95 per cent of deaths in the same staff groups. BAME patients also accounting for 34 per cent of the patients admitted to UK intensive care units with covid-19 but only 17 per cent of the UK population.

Absolutely. I’d like to see it unpicked into ethnic groups within that umbrella. Then we might get something meaningful to work on.

I think is was the last More or Less Radio 4 programme covered these figures but I was concentrating on a new recipe so not listening properly. It may be worth a catch up.

humptydumpty I agree with you. One hypothesis is that Covid-19 affects the cardiovascular system in some way. I'm no scientist, so I don't know for sure, but there are certainly some respected scientists and doctors who think so. I read that Covid-19 causes micro-embolisms, which stop oxygen reaching the lungs, which is why people "drown". People from the Indian subcontinent are prone to both cardiovascular and diabetic problems.

There are probably other factors involved too, such as BAME people doing jobs involving contact with infected people and living in high-density areas.

trisher Re your OP. That rumour seems to have been started by a faked message.

"Fake Nobel Prize winner quote"

A viral message attributed to Japanese Nobel Prize laureate Tasuku Honjo claims he believes the new coronavirus was "manufactured" in a lab in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
The posts have been shared thousands of times on social media in many languages and recently by the high-profile British businessman, Lord Sugar.

We think the first post was in India and then spread to a Nigerian page where it went viral.

But Prof Honjo, 2018 winner of the Nobel Prize for physiology or medicine, has made no such remarks.

In a statement published on the website of Kyoto University, he said he was "greatly saddened" that his name had been used to spread "false accusations and misinformation".

Scientists say genome sequencing shows that the virus came from animals and was not man-made.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/52487960

Elegran thanks for that. I don't know exactly when that originated. Trump was making the accusation on 15th April
Donald Trump has fuelled a media theory that the coronavirus pandemic began when the pathogen accidentally escaped a Chinese laboratory, teasing that “more and more we’re hearing the story

There was a podcast somewhere (on the BBC I think - I'll see if I can find it) about this.

The conclusion was that nobody knows for sure why people of BAME origin are being disproportionately affected. It would appear that there are a number of factors and it is probably a combination of all of them.

1 People of south Asian origin are genetically predisposed to diabetes and heart conditions. That could explain the number of medics who have died. They weren't low income and almost certainly weren't living in overcrowded housing.

2 Parts of London have the highest death rate. Many of those people worked for TfL or in low paid jobs, such as cleaning or caring. A disproportionate number of BAME people do those jobs.

3 BAME people tend to be poorer and live in overcrowded housing in multi-generational households.

4 BAME people absorb less Vitamin D from sunlight. The Vitamin D link isn't proven, but is definitely worth investigating.

5 Poorer people generally have worse health and more underlying conditions.

I think there might have been some other factors, but I can't remember them.

PS. Trump's conspiracy theory just sounds like another ruse to avoid taking responsibility for his mismanagement of the whole situation in the US and an extension of his feud with China.

If China really had wanted to release some virus on the world's population, I'm sure it could have come up with something which wouldn't devastate its own economy.

We live in the West Midlands in an area with a large Asian population. On our way home from Sainsbury’s earlier this week we passed three large groups of Asian males on their drives in a fairly middle class area. I think it is Ramadan/Eid. There are often large parties with fireworks etc. They were mainly youngsters who possibly feel they are immortal.

Unfortunately, there'll probably be a spike in cases in a couple of weeks :-( I know many Muslims have cancelled the parties and family gatherings this year, but I guess there will always be some who think they're different (same as many others). I wonder how many people will be cancelling Christmas this year.

Trisher Prof. Honjo's denials have been fairly recent, but www.thejournal.ie/debunked-not-natural-5088234-Apr2020/ says that "It is unclear where the text in the message comes from. A Twitter account which purported to belong to the professor and which expressed similar sentiments has now been deleted."

"It had only been created on 23 April, according to Snopes, which is when the message began going viral. " so Trump or his advisors must have had access to some version or other of the fake message eight days before the Twitter version appeared.

Trisher Scientists say genome sequencing shows that the virus came from animals and was not man-made.

"Facts are chiels that winna ding. An' downa be disputed" ( . facts are fellows that will not be overturned,/And cannot be disputed)

Elegran
I would imagine that Trump read the Five Eyes security report on the'leak' ( first reported in Australia media) before the Prof Honjo's false tweet.

Most in our area aren’t Muslim - they tend to live in a different area. Not sure what religion they are but their houses are often festooned in decorations and they are very keen on whiskey. OH drove for a few Asian weddings and, unlike our traditional weddings, they insisted he came and ate with them and even gave him his own full bottle of whiskey! Needless to say he didn’t drink any of it and surprised them by asking for water!