Vaccination misinformation

Do you feel that the government needs to be more honest about the possibility of a vaccine being discovered?
I feel so sorry for the people shielding who jump on every press release indicating it is only a matter of time before our scientists discover a vaccine, yet have no idea that after 50 years of research no vaccine has been created for any coronavirus, some much more deadly that the one that is causing the present pandemic?

We all hope for a vaccine that would enable us to live our lives as we did pre-covid but if there is one it won't be available in the near future if at all. We can only hope for better treatments.

The virus will be around and the best that can be done is to contain it when cases appear to be high in certain areas. The last thing we want is for the whole country to be locked down again.
i

The R rate is just one measure to be sure, but the percentage of those infected is also creeping upwards in many areas.

It's always good to be hopeful, but personally I prefer to be cautious and responsible.

I was given to understand that the R rate isn’t a very useful measure when the number of cases are comparatively low.

I hope for a vaccine but am not banking on one, due to the difficulties others have mentioned. I am hoping that as the professionals are learning all the time about this disease, they will find more treatments that mitigate the seriousness of it.

I was looking for a non-political, non-partisan report on the Swedish experiment. I realise that this is a bit out-of-date:

www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2376

It does, however, contradict some of the other claims which have been made.

The R rate in the UK overall is 0.9-1, which means that infection is not going away and in some areas is certainly rising. The next week or so will be critical. If it's not controlled, we could very well see exponential growth again.

It's going to be very difficult to take away people's "sweeties" amid the cries of "not fair".

I keep reading reports about capacity to vaccinate the whole population. I'm afraid it's hype. If you read beyond the headlines, these reports say that the capacity is there if a successful vaccine can be developed.

The big research labs have already teamed up with manufacturers such as AZ, so that they're ready to go - the problem is they're not ready. These announcements are being made for commercial reasons, to attract funding and raise share prices.

The Swedish experience is evaluated in the 11 July BBC ‘More or Less’ podcast. For example some bad results for the elderly, some good with no hotspots arising from keeping schools open...

(available online at BBC Sounds - apologies, I can’t see how to copy that link here).

I have a friend who lives in Sweden and she said that there has been advice and people have been trusted to follow it. Also stricter guidelines as well for the over 70's. And yes a lot have Summer houses out of the busy towns and many have spent the last few months there.

I agree with growstuff in that the lockdown was not enforced and strong enough. However the major problem with that is that unless every other country in the world did the same, the virus would simply have arrived again as soon as lockdown, in particular travel, was loosened. New Zealand was an example of that. To be honest I still think we are loosening lockdown too soon. People are being encouraged to go back to their offices when they can work safely from home, because coffee shops and sandwich bars are losing their usual trade. I’m afraid I think that is short sighted, because inevitably the R rate will rise, maybe not now, but in the Autumn. Families are allowed to gather indoors, two households at a time, but multiple people can gather in offices, all from different households. I’m worried about my son and daughter in law, who have worked perfectly safely and productively from home. And they don’t have the PPE that thank God, my daughter and her husband have access to now.
I’m hoping for a vaccine. I’m encouraged by the scientists I’ve seen interviewed on television and by the reports of teams of scientists all over the world working to this end. I fill in the Covid19 tracker app every day and I have been asked if I’m willing to possibly help in future trials of vaccines or medications. I have said I will.
I will continue to put my hope on a vaccine in the future.

Esspee I agree that different studies seem to show different things.
This is taken from Dr Malcolm Kendrick’s blog, though actually written by a guest contributor.
“there is a significant level of immunity to Covid19 already present in the population. We had another clue to this fact early in the pandemic with outbreaks on two ships, the cruise ship Diamond Princess, and the US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt. Both occurred before people took protective measures, and it can be argued that the close quarters of shipboard life are ideal for the transmission of the disease. On both ships, everybody was tested for Covid19. Results were remarkably similar. On both ships, 17 percent of the people tested positive for the virus, and of those, 50 percent were asymptomatic. It looks like 83 percent of the shipboard populations were immune to the virus. Why?”
It seems there is a great deal that we, and the scientists don’t yet know for certain. But it seems that Vitamin D plays an important role in what is described as our ‘innate immunity’ as opposed to our acquired (antibody) immunity.
Links to Dr Kendrick’s blog for anyone who’s interested
drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/07/11/replies-to-the-vitamin-d-article-by-the-guest-contributor
drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/07/09/here-is-a-coronavirus-puzzle-for-you-to-ponder-a-guest-article

Just a couple of observations on the Swedish approach.

It has a, population of 10 million in a 10 million square kilometre country. Stockholm has just under a million people living there. Many Swedes at this time of the year are living in quite isolated Summer houses. The potential for spread is low.

They also have a fairly phlegmatic approach to risk. My infant school was visited by a delegation from Sweden. They were puzzled to see staff out in the playground with the children. For why? they asked.
To keep them safe.
But the playground is safe.
But what if a child had an accident?
Then we would send them to hospital.
But there could be legal action.
Accidents happen.

It was so matter of fact.

Actually, there are effective vaccines for some animal coronavirus DS: see www.sciencedirect.com/topics/neuroscience/human-coronavirus-229e

I do not think it is a "fairy tale" - respected British scientists are working on it, and have reported on it. But I do not think it is going to happen soon.

That study showing 5% with antibodies growstuff conflicts with the more recent one which shows that in some areas of New York 68% of the population have antibodies (and therefore "possible" immunity).
One of them surely is incorrect!

PS. Even the herd immunity theory is suspect. Serology tests in France and Spain have shown that only 5% of the population has immunity, even in areas which were/are hotspots.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

PS. In England last week, there were more reported cases of Covid-19 in education settings than in care homes. Another disaster waiting to happen? Or brushed aside for political reasons?

The only people who advocate no restrictions also accept high death rates for the most vulnerable. Maybe it's a form of social Darwinism .

Maw Scotland seems to have achieved much lower transmission rates than England. There were no reported deaths in Scotland yesterday and the 7 day rolling average is very low.

Yes, zero transmission (or as near as damn it - one case per million) is achievable, but there needs to be a commitment and strategic planning.

The latest Indie SAGE Report:

www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/A-Better-Way-To-Go-FINAL-proof-copy-1.pdf

I agree about stamping down on transmission, but is that feasible in the long term? We saw too many cases of infringements (to put it politely)
Out of interest, have you looked at Sweden?
Last week, a study suggested that 30 per cent of Swedes have built up immunity to the virus. It would help explain why Covid-19 has been fizzling out in Sweden. If a measure of herd immunity also helps them avoid the second wave, Sweden’s take-it-on-the-chin approach will be vindicated.
Not going into lockdown was described as “a mad experiment” by many here but also including Swedes such as Marcus Carlsson of Lund University in March and a Dr Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér of Sweden’s Karolinska Institute who accused their government of “leading us to catastrophe”. Every model predicted an exponential rise in infections.
With half of humanity living under lockdown, photos of Swedes socialising in bars and restaurants seemed like communiqués from another dimension.
Aside from a ban on gatherings of more than 50 people, life carried on as normal. Children aged under 16 went to school. No one wore a mask. This, surely, was the calm before a terrible storm.
However, the catastrophe never arrived. As in most other European countries, Sweden saw a peak in Covid-19 deaths in the first half of April, followed by a steady decline. Shown on a graph, the pattern of mortality is indistinguishable from that of many countries that locked down Its daily death toll rarely exceeded double figures and has been below 30 since mid-June. As in Britain, half the deaths were in care homes and two thirds of those who died were aged 80 or over.
The only thing I am reasonably sure of is that there no one single way to dealing with this pandemic. We started in the dark, to use the Scottish term, “bogling “ and there has been much trial and error along the way perhaps with the emphasis on “error”.

But Maw if the death rates continue rising, we won't have "breathing space". We need to stamp down on transmission.

janeainsworth

Bluebelle CV is the same virus as the common cold which has never had a vaccine
Not true. Some colds are caused by coronaviruses (not Covid-19), some are caused by rhinoviruses and there are other sorts too. That’s why there isn’t a vaccine.

I have been doing the Covid-symptom tracker study. Yesterday I was asked if I’d like to register to be part of a study into vaccination.
I have hope that an effective vaccine will be a reality in the future.

From what I've heard and read, there will not be an effective vaccine for many months or even years (if ever). One of my Facebook friends is actively working on a vaccine, in co-operation with Oxford Uni. There are some preliminary trials, but they don't know what the results will be and, even if they work, they are still ages away from mass vaccination.

Sorry, but I can't share your optimism. There needs to be an alternative strategy.

There is interesting research being done however.
A Prof Peter Openshaw, who sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies’ clinical information group, has recently said that biotech therapies ­being trialled were potentially “very exciting” treatments.
The drugs, known as monoclonal ­antibodies, are based on antibodies produced by people who have recovered from coronavirus, and are the first potential new medicines specifically designed to attack the virus.
Unlike drugs such as the steroid dexamethasone, monoclonal antibodies have been specifically designed to attack the virus, and can be given to patients much earlier in the course of it.

Paw was treated with a monoclonal antibody therapy (Rituximab) when he developed a form of Lymphoma PTLSD back in 2008. It was very successful and I had not appreciated at the time that it might have been experimental, just that it was very new.
As I see it, one of the principal benefits of the “breathing space” which lockdown has given us, is the time to develop both therapies and approaches to the treatment of the disease.
If a vaccine can be developed too, so much the better.
I know from NHS and scientific contacts that much is going on in the background - quietly though, to avoid misleading banner headlines in the media.

The government needs to have a strategy for a Zero Covid UK.

Yesterday 147 new deaths were reported on England, 1 in Wales and 0 in Scotland and NI.

Hopefully, it's a temporary blip, but if this continues, the government needs to get a grip and the population needs to be prepared for the long haul.

If we're not going to adopt a Zero Covid UK, the government needs to state very clearly and honestly what its strategy is.

There's highly unlikely to be a vaccine in the foreseeable future, treatments are improving slightly but only marginally and the health of the nation needs to be a long-term objective, but we're not likely to see any results for at least a decade.

We need to stop transmission. There is no other way, unless we want to accept the inevitably of unnecessary deaths and long-term side effects.

Hope for the future