And so it starts to unravel

I've been asked to have a test despite no symptoms because a study is being taken into how many people in the community have Covid19, that might help give an idea of numbers of deaths in the community that haven't been attributed to the virus ....... I think. (Getting very confused about it all).

Absolutely agreed suzie. It’s quite difficult to find proper updated local figures too, and that’s what I really want to know. I want to know if my occasional trip to the shop is more or less likely to result in my picking up the infection. It wouldn’t change my behaviour (mask and lots of hand gel) but it would help me decide whether to go or not to go. As we now also do childcare for the six year old twins (school refused to do key worker childcare) I would feel more informed about where to take them to keep us and them outdoors and safe.

maddy I agree that it’s better than nothing. But what else is needed is how many people tested as well as number of positives. Then you can see a trend. Sadly the govt no longer provides figures of numbers tested (and when it was, it was including all the tests sent out whether or not they were returned). I just don’t understand why the labs cannot provide daily figs of number of tests carried out and % positive to the relevant dept.

If you look at excess deaths, the UK had a longer period than France of excess deaths from all causes and reached a higher peak.

In the UK, the worst week was from 11-17 April, when there were over double the number of expected deaths.

In France, the worst week was from 1-7 April, when there were 66% more deaths than expected.

Both the UK and France are now showing fewer deaths than expected for the time of year, although France has had fewer deaths for longer.

www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

Could it have something to do with the time lag on registration and reporting of deaths? I know they're a couple of weeks behind in England and Wales. Maybe the time lag is different in other countries.

Most reliable sources seem to estimate that the fatality rate is in the region of 1% on average in countries with advanced health care systems, which both the UK and France have.

janipat

growstuff no comment on your proposition that France were testing more people when I provided figures that proved that to be totally erroneous? Perhaps you have another theory?

It was a question, not a proposition. I have no idea why the fatality rate is so different. There must be another reason.

growstuff no comment on your proposition that France were testing more people when I provided figures that proved that to be totally erroneous? Perhaps you have another theory?

Now I've looked a bit further into it I can't work out if 'not publishing' the figures includes those on the uk.gov website I've posted the link for.

Still, I expect we'll find out pretty soon...

There is something very sinister about this whole fiasco. I've always felt this right from the start, and my gut feeling hasn't changed.

Thank you Maizie, I will look at that daily now. I want to know what is happening. I don’t want to be kept in the dark. Only by knowing these figures can I possibly make reasonably informed decisions of what to do/not do. I realise that the figures of actual cases are woefully under reported, because many people don’t get a test or are a symptomatic but it’s still a guide.

We are told how well the country 'protected the NHS', but so much other treatment was abandoned to cope with Covid, that it was diversion, not protection.

Thank you.

growstuff

Now the government has stopped giving daily updates on deaths.

You can still get the figures for deaths and new cases every day, here:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=ltlas&map=case&area=e06000047

Just refresh the web page each day.

Now the government has stopped giving daily updates on deaths.

My daughter had it, with non standard symptoms. She had the extreme tiredness, chilblains, tingly fingers, tight chest -symptoms that are only now being recognised. She was not tested and it was left to her to trace any contacts. It took her a month to recover. She will not be on any statistic.

I don't think details matter - average death rate for the five years ending Dec 2019 compared with recorded deaths at end of this year will give the best indication we are likely to get.

The sad caveat to this is that there will be a number of people who die from other things caused indirectly by covid; they did not attend hospital or get routine eg cancer treatment during the height of the pandemic.

The cause of death can change regarding who did the autopsy or did the death certificate in the normal run of things and most people won't challenge it because they may not know enough to do that or because they are too grief stricken to argue. I don't see why it would be different in the C19 crisis. There were probably a lot of deaths that were attributed to C19 when they shouldn't have been and another load which should have been attributed to C19 but wasn't. Nearly every country within the UK and outside of it have different methods of recording C19 deaths and to coin a phrase from my grandfather, it is a B*gg*r's Muddle.
The 'facts' will be distorted by the political beliefs, the media and those that genuinely believe they have done the right thing. Now they are telling us that the 'R' number was better than we thought. Statistics will never tell the whole story. I think we should be concentrating on how to prevent deaths in the future rather than trying to rewrite history.

Then nanny I’ll take no notice of your silly nudge nudge wink wink post. ONS excess death figures are accurate and its excess death figures that are the key to this.

I haven't read all the posts because they are so sad, so, apologies if you have already said this. The simplest way to measure Covid related deaths is to look at the stats in every country for 'excess deaths'. That way, we would all be using the same measure, and comparisons between nations would be more valid. for everyone who has suffered Covid loss.

suziewoozie - you seem to put a lot of faith in ONS figures?
I worked with statistical data related to the GP/NHS side of things. My opinion is different - I say no more!

It doesn’t matter for the purposes of number of deaths qq does it as you are still alive. The issue of how many people have been infected is another issue but so far, anti bodies testing is showing low levels of immunity.

If someone is 99+ and they catch a cold, they could die the next day or they may not have woken up the next day regardless. Vera Lynn seemed very healthy a few weeks ago and now she's gone. It's called old age. I expect there are many covid related deaths attributed to the same age group.

My whole family were very ill in late February /early March. I had a hacking cough and stayed in bed for 3 days, I thought I had cracked a rib, I coughed so much and each cough hurt so much. On the 4th day I rose up but felt weak for a few weeks afterwards and others in my family coughed and were rough for weeks too. Was that covid or just a bad cold!

Figures from ONS

Place of death for care home residents

Of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) among care home residents (date of death from 2 March to 12 June 2020, registered up to 20 June 2020), 74.9% (14,519 deaths) occurred within a care home, with the remainder occurring in hospitals (24.8%) or elsewhere (0.3%). Of all hospital deaths involving COVID-19, 15.5% were accounted for by care home residents.

We let many die in care homes who never went near a hospital - that’s how we managed, we threw care homes under the bus. Didn’t we do well ?

Along with heart attacks, cancers and strokes as well as sudden deaths at home too---all must have been counted with Covid.

It's never coincidental that many die in many parts of the country from any of the above in any one day.