Davidhs
If Williamson was really a fireplace salesman that explains a lot, salesman or saleswomen are full of bullsh—. Fast talking, insincere and slippery.
Exam grades are meant to reflect the pupils ability accurately if schools did assess 38% as A* they are plain dishonest, crooks.
When A* was introduced it was meant to split the large number of A grades awarded, grade inflation does not help pupils because colleges know it is being done. The top colleges have to have their own interviews and entrance tests to separate the stars from the average students.
Many colleges are all about bums on seats, poor quality courses, mediocre graduates, which is why over 40% of graduates are not doing graduate work.
Davidhs The teachers aren't "crooks". If a pupil is borderline between two grades, teachers will predict the higher grade. Every year (except this one of course), Chief Examiners double check certain borderline candidates. There is always a certain amount of subjectivity about marking most subjects at A level. If a candidate, for example, receives one mark away from an A, there's a chance that the paper will be looked at again, especially if the teacher assessment was an A. If the teacher assessment is a B, it's less likely that the candidate will be given the benefit of the doubt.
If a whole centre is way off the teacher assessment, there's a chance the papers will be remarked, in case there's a "rogue" examiner or a clerical error. If the centre has really overmarked on a massive scale, it will be ticked off by the exam board.
I suspect the overestimating isn't that much different from other years, but in previous years there was an exam to confirm the mark.
Some schools are notorious for overestimating A levels, which are often the same ones used for university offers. Of course, the pupil still has to achieve the exam grade, but at least he/she has an offer and might be motivated to achieve it. If the school is honest about predictions or even underestimates, the chances are that a pupil won't even receive an offer.