Youtube: Dr John Lee, retired pathologist.

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Heneghan is a GP and an epidemiologist, it's possible to be more than one thing at once. It doesn't say he's attention seeking but many academics are, so I don't really care.

Have people lost the ability to Google?

www.ox.ac.uk/news-and-events/find-an-expert/professor-carl-heneghan#

Irrespective of one's views on his views, or anyone else's views, I think that a straight death per million figure is not an easy one to use. What I think is very important, and is rarely discussed, is the post covid19 debility suffered by many 'survivors', often people of middle age. The symptoms vary from post viral fatigue type illness which can last for months if not years, to serious organ disorders, blood clotting, breathlessness, immobility and many more. These are still victims of covid19 but are not counted in the 'victim count' which only covers fatalities.

FarNorth

I haven't listened to all of that video but, early on in it, I heard Dr Lee say that there is very little danger for the under-60s aka the economically active.

So that's not most of us on GN.

But "economically active" is now up to the age of 66 and there most certainly is an increased risk for 60-66 year olds, as well as for all the grandparents who look after their grandchildren, on whom society depends.

Not only that, but there are people under 60 with recognised high-risk factors. Are they just to be dismissed because there aren't many of them?

Furthermore, younger people are vectors for transmission to people who are likely to have serious symptoms or die.

We don't seem to have moved beyond the idea of herd immunity.

PS. Heneghan is a GP - that's a fact. Being an attention seeker is admittedly my opinion (and that of others), but I am extremely cynical about any "media medic", of which Heneghan is one.

Callistemon

^Carl Heneghan is a GP and attention-seeker^.

You state these as facts whilst failing to mention that he is an epidemiologist, Professor of and Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine with extensive experience who has advised governments worldwide.

Whether I agree with his views is neither here nor there as I do not have his extensive knowledge in epidemiology or virology but dismissing an expert so casually must mean your knowledge is even far more extensive to be able to judge.

Of course, it may be so.

What are his qualifications as an epidemiologist? He doesn't have any listed.

No, my knowledge isn't more extensive, but many scientists and doctors do have more extensive knowledge and that is their view.

He is a Professor of Evidence Based Medicine. He published a paper about medical masks and stated that there was no evidence that they worked for the public. Strictly speaking, that was true. They haven't been validated with proper scientific trials. However, he didn't state that they don't work, but the media didn't pick that up. The anti-mask brigade picked up his paper to support their protest against masks. Rather than clarifying the situation, Heneghan has continued to state that there's no evidence masks work and people have heard what they want to hear.

Trish Greenhalgh is also a Professor at Oxford Uni and vehemently opposes Heneghan and she has expressed her views on him quite vocally, as have others. Meanwhile, Heneghan has become a bit of a media darling because he says what people want to hear. This is Greenhalgh's view of his research:

www.cebm.net/covid-19/face-coverings-for-the-lay-public-an-alternative-view/

I have no doubt that Heneghan knows more about medicine than I do (although AFAIK he's not an epidemiologist), but I stand by my opinion that it would be foolish to accept every word he says as "gospel".

I haven't listened to all of that video but, early on in it, I heard Dr Lee say that there is very little danger for the under-60s aka the economically active.

So that's not most of us on GN.

? Calli! Better expressed that I could set out. Thank you!

I am neither afraid nor casual about this virus and did listen to the discussion, but I found him selective in data he quoted. Also, the fact that he (as I think someone said earlier) doesn't believe in modeling, means he's hostile to the projections which had to be based on other coronaviruses.

As for Sweden, a recent academic study found that the people in Sweden felt their lives were changed the most in the developed world with the one exception of South Korea. Sweden has lots of young people too. And few multigenerational households. It is those households who suffered most.

I would have liked to hear him speak in a debate with other scientists though.
The interviewer just had the same opinion so it was a bit dull.
Thanks for posting though.

Carl Heneghan is a GP and attention-seeker.

You state these as facts whilst failing to mention that he is an epidemiologist, Professor of and Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine with extensive experience who has advised governments worldwide.

Whether I agree with his views is neither here nor there as I do not have his extensive knowledge in epidemiology or virology but dismissing an expert so casually must mean your knowledge is even far more extensive to be able to judge.

Of course, it may be so.

Farnorth ...^surely those things are only as good as the info put into them?^

I think that's the argument against them. That and inbuilt human bias.

I think that you have to take a balanced view of the so called “science”, look at multiple sources, not one or two “experts”, even if they have medical qualifications.
I agree with growstuff that opinions are not immune from political bias, and we are naive if we think that they are. We all tend to seek out ideas which correspond to our own way of thinking.
Another point is that whilst this pandemic is still evolving, it’s impossible to make accurate pronouncements on case mortality rates. Let’s see after the winter.

Callistemon

You mean you don't agree with him so dismiss his credentials, growstuff.

No, I'm cynical. He's not a specialist, so I'm inclined to give more credence to people who are. Scientists and doctors always disagree. Its a myth to believe in anything called "the science".

My science and maths aren't good enough to counter any arguments, but I've been following the debates and I'm not convinced that people like Heneghan or Lee are any more right than anybody else. What I can see from the debates is that they are seriously out of line with people who are more qualified and experienced, but they suit the political agenda of certain groups.

You mean you don't agree with him so dismiss his credentials, growstuff.

Urmstongran

Oh tosh!

Why tosh? Do you always believe in fairy tales?

Carl Heneghan is a GP and attention-seeker.

Imperial College's modelling (algorithm) has been thoroughly examined and discussed by some very serious mathematicians. Apparently, the consensus is that the coding of the algorithm is clunky in places, but the results are valid. Unlike the A level algorithm, they had people who understood their subject designing it.

Dr John Lee is a retired pathologist and Ivor Cummings' speciality is heart disease prevention.

Surely those things are only as good as the info put into them by people.

I think I should correct the above and point out that Dr Lee is against modeling, which most of the advice has been based on. As he sees it, it cannot provide the firm answers that science needs.

That is interesting, Namsnanny
The modelling is based on algorithm(s).

We have seen what has happened with the algorithm which was used to predict 'A' level results which many on GN have decried.

The respective figures for area and population size, in Sweden and Ireland, make it sound as if the two can't be fairly compared.
But what were the population of Sweden doing, while Ireland was in lockdown?
Were they well dispersed in their larger land area?
Or were most of them in similar working & living situations to those Ireland has when not in lockdown?
I don't know the answer to that, but it needs to be known in order to decide if they can be compared fairly.

Oh tosh!

Urmstongran

Thanks Namsnanny it’s helpful to get some perspective on this. I think the media fastened on to the virus and wouldn’t let go. It caused more anxiety - out of all proportion in my opinion.

I also am reassured by the views of Professor Carl Henegan and have been for some weeks. He is a member of the SAGE group too.

Carl Heneghan is considered to be a pro-government stooge and maverick by many other scientists. I wouldn't take anything he says as "gospel".

Interesting point Teetime about relatives and friends being terrified. We had an episode a couple of months back, during lockdown. An elderly neighbour fell in his garden, couldn't get up, and his disabled wife couldn't move him. My friend, who lives next door, heard his cries, and went into the garden, offered to call 999. Hysterical pleas from the couple who did not want him to go into hospital, and even more hysteria when my friend ( who did call 999, and their son) tried to get into their garden to help him. How many other people are so frightened that they would rather risk serious harm instead of seeking help?

So, in you experience, how unusual is it for a virus to be highly contagious in asymptomatic and presymptomatic people which is why it’s so dangerous?

namsnanny thank you for this link I enjoyed listening to the professor. As I have said before I was an Infection Control Nurse some years ago and very much involved in putting what we then called 'universal precautions' for dealing with all patients i.e. PPE obviously not at the level now in place for Covid patients but nevertheless some extensive changes had to be made to policies and procedures. I was involved in many outbreaks of various infections and with contact tracing. During this epidemic I have been able to lean on my past experience and clinical training so DH and I have not been at all worried but have been very concerned for relatives and friends who have been TERRIFIED of leaving their own front door even to go into the garden. I have tried to be reassuring and offer them support but the power of the media is very strong and several are still not going out at all. I fear for their mental health and with winter coming they have begun to lay in supplies and say they are not coming out until a vaccine which is fully tested and licensed is available. I have explained this may not be for some time but they are insistent.

Dr John Campbell has been advising people to take VitD3 for months, especially anyone with a darker skin as they don’t produce the vitamin. Which isn’t actually a vitamin: more of a hormone and proven to help with respiratory tract infections. Many people are deficient in it, especially during the winter months. Sweden actually add Vit D3 to various foods so the death rate there might have been even higher if they didn’t.