Gov. Uk tables of CV 19 - not all of them are frightening!!!

Maybe I'm missing something. As far as I'm concerned it's not a reason for doom and gloom nor for celebration. It's just factual. The big unknown is how long it will be before there is an effective vaccine. As far as I can work out, it might be some time next year, but not sooner. Whenever it is, it's too far in the future to affect what should be happening now.

growstuff not growsnet! Sorry growstuff!!

Yep, and I didn't argue with you growsnet. But this is exactly my point!

The conclusions you draw are indeed things that can be deduced from the article. But simply saying that natural infection doesn't make you immune and that a vaccine won't work for ever, are only part of the story.

The conclusions that the authors of the article come to are that waning natural immunity does not mean that a vaccine will not work, and that we might need regular vaccinations.

Both these points lead on from from what you say, but leaving this part unsaid changes the meaning and intention of the article.

Alegrias

Thanks growstuff, but those are rather "glass half empty" points that we could draw from the article.

But the "glass half full" ones are that waning natural immunity does not mean that a vaccine will not work, and that a vaccine might be like the flu vaccine in that we might need it every year. I could live with that.

I didn't say that a vaccine wouldn't work. I wrote that a vaccine might not provide lifelong immunity - which is true.

Alegrias I was very pleased to read your 'glass half full' posts. It made a pleasant change from the nonstop doom and gloom. Looking at Covid in perspective is important. How many heart and cancer deaths will be caused indirectly due to cancelled and postponed assessment and treatment.

Thanks growstuff, but those are rather "glass half empty" points that we could draw from the article.

But the "glass half full" ones are that waning natural immunity does not mean that a vaccine will not work, and that a vaccine might be like the flu vaccine in that we might need it every year. I could live with that.

Alegrias

MaizieD I'm going to jump on something you said because it proves my point!

It also reiterates that research is finding that immunity declines greatly after 3 months. which is not promising for vaccine development.

The last bit sows doubt about whether an effective vaccine can be produced if natural immunity declines. That's not the case and an off hand remark can cause unnecessary worry.

www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/opinion/coronavirus-antibodies-immunity.html

Thanks for posting that link Alegrias. It confirmed what I already thought .

Firstly, that having been infected naturally doesn't automatically confer lifelong immunity.

Secondly, a vaccine (which would probably be more effective than a previous infection) might not provide lifelong protection either.

Sarnia

I listened to a Professor of Virology speak a few days ago. He said flu and virus strains mutate. Where a virus is concerned it can often mutate into a weaker form and he thinks this is why the 'R' number is rising but deaths are not keeping pace with that. He also said that in the time from lockdown in March until now in the region of 44,000 people had died from Covid-19 but in that same timeframe 51,000 people had died from smoking related illnesses. Puts it in perspective.

But people choose to smoke. These are additional deaths. I don't suppose anybody chose to be infected.

Illte

Like Jane10 said, we won't know for at least two weeks and a bit more if the rise in positive tests results in a rise in hospital admissions.

Or if it is increased testing or increased cases.

Too soon for any conclusions one way or the other.

Well said! Apparently, there was a similar pattern in France and Spain before hospital admissions started rising again. Fingers crossed yesterday was just a blip, but we can't let our guard down yet.

Like Jane10 said, we won't know for at least two weeks and a bit more if the rise in positive tests results in a rise in hospital admissions.

Or if it is increased testing or increased cases.

Too soon for any conclusions one way or the other.

Monica you are very lucky,my family have known 12 people who died from Covid,My son 's two friends lost their mums right at the start of lockdown.Ill in the morning dead by t-time.My friends 34 year old son was the same ..no underlying issues .We are and have been very careful.My OH does supermarket shopping just before the shop closes so its quiet and we get as much as we can online.We 've been out for dinner twice once in July for our 45th anniversary and yesterday both times to retaurants owned by family friends who we know will follow guidlines carefully .We really dont want to see deaths rise here again .We had over 6 weeks without any then two last week.

I listened to a Professor of Virology speak a few days ago. He said flu and virus strains mutate. Where a virus is concerned it can often mutate into a weaker form and he thinks this is why the 'R' number is rising but deaths are not keeping pace with that. He also said that in the time from lockdown in March until now in the region of 44,000 people had died from Covid-19 but in that same timeframe 51,000 people had died from smoking related illnesses. Puts it in perspective.

MaizieD I'm going to jump on something you said because it proves my point!

It also reiterates that research is finding that immunity declines greatly after 3 months. which is not promising for vaccine development.

The last bit sows doubt about whether an effective vaccine can be produced if natural immunity declines. That's not the case and an off hand remark can cause unnecessary worry.

www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/opinion/coronavirus-antibodies-immunity.html

Time will tell. The hospital admissions in the next 2 weeks (after this rise in infections) will be interesting to see.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

I’ve just come across this. It looks at all the recent papers on Covid and is worth looking at.

I’m believe that as age increases the severity of virus infection increases with age and underlying conditions. The OP, points out that all we see is doom and gloom although as others have said, there are new ways of more successfully treating the virus.

Some of you may be interested in the (very long) twitter thread about the possibility of reinfection.

It also reiterates that research is finding that immunity declines greatly after 3 months. which is not promising for vaccine development.

While I appreciate that people want to get back to life as 'normal' as possible I think that we have to be very cautious with this disease. It is not flu.

There is also the very real prospect of debilitating long term damage.

twitter.com/PRussW1/status/1286475600300040192

Who said the pandemic is on the way out? That’s not a conclusion to be drawn from what I said. It would be silly to think that. I agreed with Franbern that fewer people in hospital is a good thing. Yes, it’s probably going to get worse again. Yes, fewer people died last week than before. Its possible for both things to be true.

I’m sorry if anyone was upset by my bubble comment alegrias but I wasn’t shooting Franbern down in flames as you put it.
I was merely contributing to the discussion and I stand by my opinion that the fact that there are fewer hospital admissions and fewer deaths doesn’t indicate to me that the pandemic is over or even on the way out.
The only good news is that better treatment is available.
You may think that it’s good that mainly young people are getting it now, but as others have said, some will die and some will suffer long-term effects.
The main reason that older people haven’t overwhelmed the NHS and aren’t contracting the virus in larger numbers now, is that they have generally been more cautious than younger people about observing lockdown guidance, and perhaps have more choice about how much they can isolate themselves.

New daily active cases more than doubled last week. How anyone can be any less than alarmed by that surprises me.

Seriousness and fatality rates go up with age with any disease from flu to cancer. It is an ineluctable fact. There is nothing remarkable about COVID doing the same.

Medical knowledge has come on in leaps and bounds in dealing with this disease, which probably didn't exist a year ago and the chances of a quick recovery and few longterm problems are much higher for all ages.

How many of us would leave the house if we really knew the exact probability of us being injured in road accident, of tripping over something in the street, not to mention all the coughs, colds, flus and other diseases that can be caught.

For the health and wellbeing of everyone, it is necessary that the economy recovers as soon as possible, people return to work or can get new jobs and that means we need to develop a rational reaction to risk, or are we to become a third world country over-burdened by debt and with a collapsed economy, where the economic migrants will be British citizens escaping this country for opportunities elsewhere.

I am not suggesting a reduction in precautions when out. I have worn both mask and gloves when out, from the start of the pandemic in March, I socially distance and take every care, but at the same time, I appreciate people's concerns when members of their family are very vulnerable, but those same vulnerable people were equally vulnerable to flu and many other conditions before COVID. Were you taking the same precautions then?

I do not know anybody who has had COVID but my sister was killed in a road accident, my daughter seriously injured and left with a residual disability following a road accident, a whole family close to my DiL were also killed in a road accident. I have friends and contacts who sometime in their lives have been in traffic accidents that led to serious injury yet we all still get into cars as passengers and drivers and travel thousands of miles every year.

We need to take care, but our longtime well being requires us to come out from behind our barriers and move forward, socially distanced, of course.

Marydoll I’m sorry, that must be very hard, especially not seeing your grandchildren. I’m really not saying everything’s rosy, it’s not. I’ve spent 1 hour with my elderly parents since February, and that was outdoors in a car park. They live far away and visiting is difficult because social distancing is impossible in their tiny flat. We’ve rented some accommodation in October to go and see them, but if that gets cancelled because people are being selfish and the rules get changed, I’ll be heartbroken.
I see people on TV complaining that they had to come home early from Portugal, or wherever, because quarantine rules changed, and I think that some people don’t know they are born…..

All I was trying to show with these tables that it appears that the medics have found far more and better ways of dealing with this virus, even for those seriously ill with it.
Numbers of those requiring hospitalisation is extremely low (and so is that of the unfortunate few who require intensive care), numbers of daily deaths in UK is miniscule (at least from this virus - not from all the usual things that are around.
People are getting fixated on the positive tests numbers - which are obviously increasing , not because more people are out and about, but simply because so many more tests are being carried out. So they should be, and far, far more than are being done currently.
We should be totally bound by fears - most of us never have been in the past with fears of flue, pneumonia, malaria (I have even heard that our mild winters are putting us at danger of this -the current biggest killer of all in the world), but no-one seems to be panicking about it.
If you feel very, very vulnerable and are willing to put your life on total hold and stay indoors - then that is your choice - but just ask yourself if you did this in previous years when 'flu rampaged around killing off so many people??
I will repeat what I have said before, at my age quality of life is actually more important to me than quantity - so I will just take my chance out there - see my family and g.children. My choice!!
But I had hoped that the figures might be a little re-assuring to all.

That's one of Heneghan's theories, much beloved by the BBC. It's been shown that the tests can pick up people who are no longer infectious, but it's not known how many. The experiments were done some months ago, so aren't relevant to current figures. Scientists dispute how much these cases are distorting the figures. It certainly doesn't account for the huge spike yesterday. As there's a shortage of test kits, the actual case rate is probably even higher.

Alegrias for those who look after grandchildren, not visiting people' s homes is a huge issue.
I haven't seen my DGD for weeks, as she has started school.She now has to attend, Aftercare.

As a shielder previously, I have been advised not to go out at all, as I'm so vulnerable.
It means my family are now back to doing my shopping and collecting prescriptions, standing in the pouring rain to deliver them. They are terrified of passing the virus on to me.
So in effect, I'm in no better a position than I was in March, thanks to selfish idiots. ?

Also reported by BBC yesterday that the reason for the high numbers of positive tests is that they are so sensitive that they are picking up dead virus in those that had it months ago and ceased to be infectious many weeks ago, but still test positive. They are healthy people who will not need treatment and can't infect others.

I agree with you Alegrias. I really object to being accused of scaremongering or being a scaredy cat. I know that millions of people aren't dying and in most parts of the UK, the number of deaths is down to single or double figures per day. The number of deaths could very well be because those most at risk are still being very cautious.

I just want honesty and cutting the political spin. It is still deadly to those with underlying health conditions. The risk of being infected is low in many areas, but it's not good news if cases rise steeply because it's less safe to go out and about.

If there are people who are happy to pass it amongst themselves, that's fine by me, but maybe they'd like to keep themselves to themselves - maybe cordon themselves off in a separate part of town or shops or wear a big "Danger Don't Come Close" badge.