no vaccine for under 50s says vaccine head in UK

Do your maths Franbern.

If Covid-19 was left to infect all those who aren't vulnerable (and there's no way of doing that accurately) that would mean 44 million people would stand a high risk of being infected, unless other measures are in place. (About a third of the population is estimated to be high risk.) The fatality rate from Covid-19 is estimated to be between 0.05 and 0.1%, which means that approximately 440,000 people would die - that's nearly half a million unnecessary deaths, which is why I find the idea of just letting it take its course totally unethical and unacceptable.

Do a little research about "long Covid", which has now been accepted as a medical condition.

So give me some practical ways of keeping schools and universities open. Currently, over 1000 schools in England alone have at least some pupils and staff at home in isolation. Universities are driving up transmission in Manchester, Leeds and Newcastle. What would you do about that?

I'm not panicking. I just despair at those who try to make excuses and couldn't give a damn about the common good.. The government has let the situation get out of control with its constant flip-flopping and listening to the small group of so-called scientists who support their libertarian agenda.

Interesting how so many people have become convinced that there is an extremely high death rate with Covid, whereas, it actually just under one percent of those of actually test positive. Probably many more people have it, with so few symptoms they never get a test.

Even Long Covid - what exactly is it? and how many does it effect? and for how long? Seems that it is counted as still having some symptoms a month after positive test.....not very long - and maybe such things as continuing loss of smell, etc. Obviously, some have far worse on-going problems and for longer. Nobody, at present knows for how long these problems will last. Many illnesses can leave us feeling quite poorly for several weeks and even months after we seemingly recover from them.

From my personal point of view I am much much more concerned about the on-going problems economically, and how this is going to effect children and young people - probably for decades to come. So, my priority in all of this is to try to get as near as normal a life as possible for these, schools to stay open, Universities, etc to operate properly and normally. I will be honest and say that if oldies, like myself finish out lives slightly earlier than perhaps we might have (who knows), to achieve this - so be it.

But ......under one percent who actually test positive die, of those who get a positive test about one a half percent still have some nasty symptoms four weeks after recovery. Are we panicking about panicking!!!

This is a long read, but well worth reading before swallowing the stuff in the Daily Mail (which has previously been touted in the Spectator and Telegraph):

bylinetimes.com/2020/09/23/scamademics-right-wing-lobbying-groups-reviving-herd-immunity-in-the-uk/

This idea of letting younger people get on with it is a thinly disguised version of the discredited and dangerous herd immunity theory. There are about 4 or 5 media savvy pseudo-scientists behind it. It's confirmation bias because people are looking for quick fixes and the populist government says what it thinks people want to hear.

Thank goodness Facebook has decided to be more pro-active by deleting one of Trump's untruthful posts about flu being deadlier than Covid-19.

A vaccine is so far away that it's not even worth squabbling about.

I see the Daily Mail is headlining today the "life should return to normal apart from the vulnerable, who should be shielded" claptrap. I really do despair when there is so much nonsense spouted and people believe it, without putting their brains into gear and thinking through the consequences. Their alleged "top scientists" are nothing of the sort.

There won't be an effective vaccine for months - if ever - so people need to think how life can adapt rather than hoping that life can go back to normal. We need to act as a society rather than self-interested individuals - and we need a leader to inspire us to do that by leading by example.

Sounds like a plan varian so fingers crossed we don’t have to wait too long.

We haven't got a proven to be effective and safe vaccine yet.

But when we do get that vaccine, and I hope it will be soon, I would suggest-

First give it to front-line health service and care workers,

Then other essential workers - food producers and distributers, including supermarket and delivery staff, and those who keep other essential services going such as bus drivers.

After that those involved in testing, tracing and analysing the statistics, including epidemiologists advising the government.

Then the news media.

Then everyone over 50, and younger people who are vulnerable.

Then everyone else, including politicians.

PS. Herd immunity has never been achieved without a vaccine and the idiots who still think it would work would be responsible for killing hundreds of thousands of people and leaving others with lifelong after effects.

BlueBelle

Exactly griwstuff so the elderly infirm or frightened stay at home and the rest get on with keeping the economy going by working, school etc etc What other way is there ?

It's not just the elderly. Approximately 30% of the population, including some younger people, are high risk. That includes teachers and medical staff. The vulnerable would need to come into contact with carers, etc. The idea is bonkers. The only other way is for people to wear their masks and keep their distance and stop finding every loophole going - and that includes politicians and Johnson senior!

You're right franbern, there's far too many "ifs" at the moment to get excited about a vaccine. But I guess they have to start from somewhere.

B9exchange

The only encouraging news is that they are planning to give the distribution of the vaccine supplies to the army, rather than the dreadful Serco. Look how well the army coped with building the Nightingales!

Well let's hope those in the military receive their own vaccinations then.
They live in close quarters, they are deployed all over the place, they're going to be distributing the vaccines and they protect our country. It would be folly not to put them near the front of the queue, along with teachers.

The only encouraging news is that they are planning to give the distribution of the vaccine supplies to the army, rather than the dreadful Serco. Look how well the army coped with building the Nightingales!

Exactly griwstuff so the elderly infirm or frightened stay at home and the rest get on with keeping the economy going by working, school etc etc What other way is there ?

Sorry, but the so-called herd immunity theory has been debunked. The only thing people can do is make sure they don't get infected.

I agree franbern I don’t understand why people are getting so worked up about it now it’s not going to be around for maybe years and whose going to want to take a rushed through vaccine
Much better if they concentrate on finding medications to lesson the shock to the body of the virus and stop people from having to be hospitalised That way people will build up the needed immunity and it will gradually peter out

They (Government) originally said that when/if a covid vaccine becomes available it would be rolled out to the entire population. Easily said, when (A) there is no such vaccine and (B) no idea if one will ever be available.

Now, they are saying that when/if such a vaccine becomes available, it will be difficult to manufacture enough for the entire adult population so the choice will have to be made at the point whether to use it to (A) try to halt to spread of the virus or (B) to prevent vulnerable people getting it.

At present it appears as if B is the one they are think they will go with.

BUT.....who know? If and When there will be such a vaccine- they keep (and have for the past six months) talk about it being available in months whereas it could take years. Also, there is no doubt that a lot of people are concerned that if such a vaccine does happen quickly, how long-term safe it will be (normally vaccines take 8-10 years with testing, etc.), and even ardent pro-vaxers are saying they would not be happy to have something that had not undergone such long-term tests.

Think so much of this talk about a vaccine being available so quickly it just some sort of panacea to keep us going along with some of the many silly rules that they make, change and then change again.

Well we haven’t got a Covid vaccine and aren’t likely to have one for a good while so why all the judgements about it now

If you are talking about the flu yearly vaccine anyone over 65 or under if they have certain health related problems gets it free whether at the doctors or the pharmacy If you re under 65 with no underlying problems I think it’s about £15

If you’re talking about a Covid vaccination there isn’t any

Are you talking about the flu vaccine Kate? I overheard a conversation in Sainsbury’s pharmacy this morning. It sounded like the man....over 65 he said, was there to have his flu vaccine which had been cancelled due to high demand. The assistant was saying it’s the same all over. Typical! I’ve never had a flu jab. I’ve never had flu. Now I want one.....?

I have had mine cancelled by the pharmacy even though I booked it two weeks ago. They have run out. So I rang GP surgery. I am now on a waiting list!

Hope the Covid vaccine works as well!

In the 1950s, I had "Asian Flu". People were dropping like "nine pins". The wife of my brother's friend, recently married, died in her early twenties. Old school friend, a nurse on "Men's Medical" Birmingham General, told me none of the then patients expected to survive to go home.

Point of this! I have never had flu since neither have I had a flu jab - my GP believes I must still have immunity. Strange since there have been many differing flu strains.

It's easy to find the agreed priority list on the Web.

It goes

Adults in care homes and care workers

Adults over 80 and health and social care workers

Adults over 75

Adults over 65

And so on

Other criteria were considered such as ethnicity or underlying conditions but it was decided that this was the quickest, most effective rollout.

At the Virtual Conference, the Heath Secretary voiced his support for the programme.

Like I said, wheres the confusion?

Why do some people want to stir up what doesn't exist. ?

That seems clear enough Illte. I’ve heard that the difficulty of vaccinating the whole population quickly is the problem and so initially only those at risk would get it. I think that means over 50s or 55s, people with certain conditions or on cancer treatment, and all health workers. Pretty much like getting the flu vaccine now.

And the people who want you to think there's a muddle??

She actually said it was an adult only vaccine and would not be given to under 18s.

The Joint Committee on Vaccination has set a priority list and the Government have agreed with this.

Where's the muddle?

Oh, in the Press ?

Yes, its the covid news that worries me. Someone can get it every 4 months or so, as their immunity falls, so younger people who have no vaccination are likely over the fullness of time to get repeated infections, even asymptomatic ones and to infect the elderly or sick or at risk.

Because, there's not total immunity from a vaccine only reduced chance of getting it.

If you have repeated exposure to others with covid, you stand a good chance of getting it regardless of a vaccine.

Those at risk groups only get a reduction in risk from a vaccine, not total immunity, as their immunity after a vaccine is likely to reduce the risk only by about 60/80 percent. And those figures may fall the older you are.

You can't achieve herd immunity through a vaccine if not everyone gets it. It seems to me we are getting the usual mixed messaging. Hancock says everyone will be vaccinated, its just the roll out that's prioritised.

Head of vaccine for the government says no one under 50. Which is it?

If all carers get it, regardless of setting that's great news.

The governments response is, as usual, chaotic.