Second wave sweeping Europe?

mokryna

Ashcombe

Interesting graph.

Ashcombe. Do the figures shown include those which amnesty’s?
Between 2 March and 12 June this year 28,186 “excess deaths” were recorded in care homes in England, with over 18,500 care home residents confirmed to have died with COVID-19 during this period.

I have no way of knowing but it seems unlikely since this graph originated on a government website.

It's going to be very difficult to hide or disguise the excess deaths figures, apparently 23,000 more than 'expected' in care homes here:

The data in the graph is supplied by the ONS which is independent of government, so they are not "hiding" anything. At the peak they are showing approx 11,000 excess deaths a week so the 28,000 deaths that Amnesty talk about are certainly included in the graph.

I don’t think excess deaths in this country are being hidden. Perhaps I’m not feeling too bright this morning, but why would this country want to hide deaths? It’s not a competition as to who has the most or the least deaths, or it shouldn’t be. We need to know how many are dying and where they are in order to inform policy.
But China is a different matter though.

Alegrias2

The data in the graph is supplied by the ONS which is independent of government, so they are not "hiding" anything. At the peak they are showing approx 11,000 excess deaths a week so the 28,000 deaths that Amnesty talk about are certainly included in the graph.

That’s reassuring although their website is part of the government web.:-

www.ons.gov.uk/

Yes, I noticed that too Ashcombe, its strange. I did a bit of digging though and it does appear that they are independent of government.

Thanks for taking the time to investigate, Alegrias.

It's not so much that some countries are 'lying'.
Rather they haven't got the technology or the ability to find out all numbers and causes of death.

Well, that is the UK explained then Fennel!

You're welcome Ashcombe . I like to get my teeth into a good graph....

GagaJo - you're right! Good connection.

Did you read the explanatory notes I posted yesterday?

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending9october2020

It answers the question some people ask about dying with Covid or of Covid.

As anybody who has ever had a loved one (especially an elderly one) die and has seen the death certificate, causes of death aren't always that clear cut.

For example, Covid can cause pneumonia, so people can die of pneumonia but the real reason is Covid. Some people have been claiming that pneumonia deaths have inaccurately been registered as Covid. It's very possible that there can be no absolute certainty about the actual numbers, but the trends can't be mistaken.

The excess deaths aren't that significant at the moment, but when dealing with exponential growth, the curve begins to rise increasingly steeply. The next couple of weeks will be significant. Hopefully, the lockdowns and half term will slow the growth down.

Even if you don't watch the whole broadcast, Christina Pagel usually starts off the Independent Sage broadcasts (available on YouTube) with a straightforward analysis of the last weeks' statistics.

mokryna

Ashcombe

Interesting graph.

Ashcombe. Do the figures shown include those which amnesty’s?
Between 2 March and 12 June this year 28,186 “excess deaths” were recorded in care homes in England, with over 18,500 care home residents confirmed to have died with COVID-19 during this period.

Care homes weren't routinely testing for Covid at the beginning of the pandemic, partly because tests were in short supply. Therefore, some people died after all the symptoms of Covid and the doctor used his professional judgment to decide it was Covid.

The ONS is a non-ministerial department (a quango) and receives all its finances from the government. It is independent of the government, but reports to it.

Other NMDs are the Charity Commission, the Crown Prosecution Service, the Land Registry, Ofsted, Ofqual and the Supreme Court.

The fact that NMDs and ministries aren't the same and sometimes clash with each other was shown over the summer by the tension between Ofqual and the Department for Education over exam results.

The excess deaths aren't that significant at the moment, but when dealing with exponential growth, the curve begins to rise increasingly steeply. The next couple of weeks will be significant. Hopefully, the lockdowns and half term will slow the growth down.

There is certainly cause for concern at the rising death rate, even if we're not into excess deaths yet. I've been monitoring the figures from the government's Coronavirus dashboard and, bearing in mind that the 'deaths' they publish are only those of people who have died within 28 days of testing positive, when we know that death can occur later than that, the rise is marked. In the last week in September there were 277 deaths (sorry, my week goes from a Thursday to Wednesday, because that's where I started, just in case anyone wanted to check my figures), last week it was 1,003 and we're up to 738 this week with three days to go. This time last week there were 491. (I haven't done anything with the figures apart from rudimentary totalling.)

I don't think the half hearted lock downs will make much difference and I don't think that half term (which has been at different dates across the country) will show any impact for another 3 weeks yet.

The ONS figures are always a couple of weeks behind. They give a lot of detail and are really worth downloading if people are interested.

The government dashboard for daily updates is here:
coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/

Are those the deaths that are cited to be from Coronavirus Maizie? I’m assuming they are.
Deaths are rising from Coronavirus and soon will be rising from other causes as we go into winter. I’m putting my hope in a vaccine, the Oxford one is looking very promising. I can’t see any other end to it anytime soon otherwise.

They are, yes, maddyone.

Well, the govt website phrases it as 'deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test'. Which is a bit non-committal, isn't it?

Another 151 today (high for a Monday) so now 889 so far this week

The problem with lockdowns is that people are still not complying. There are people still claiming that the figures have been faked. If anything, the cases and deaths are worse than the official figures. There are still people who come out with the tired arguments about cancer and other conditions being ignored. I don't know what they expect the NHS to do. If Covid isn't controlled, there will be even less capacity to treat people with non-Covid conditions.

It really annoys me how defeatist people are. Coronavirus doesn't spread by magic. It spreads because people are in contact with infected people. It really is as simple as that. If they avoid contact, either by keeping away from other people or staying in well-ventilated places at a distance and wear a mask, the risk is minimal. Yet still people think it won't happen to them. The virus would die without a host, so providing it with a ready-made supply of hosts is just plain stupid.

Maizie I've been called a doom monger, which is why I'm not too pessimistic yet about the rising number of deaths. As I wrote, the next couple of weeks will be critical. It could be that the number of deaths starts flat lining - in fact, the growth has slowed slightly.

IMO the biggest problem is schools. They returned to full classes prematurely, when the R rate was still too high and T & T wasn't working. Classrooms are the worst places ever for transmission and schools haven't operated anywhere near normally. Goodness knows how many people have been infected by asymptomatic pupils. Infections amongst teenagers has risen steeply. It's time for the government to admit that there needs to be a Plan B and deliver the laptops and WiFi to those that need it.

I am sure if we agreed to the form of government that China has, we too could have beaten the virus. But think of the many millions of people who have died since 1948 in political concentration camps, prisons, in Tibet, which was invaded and occupied and now the Uighurs.

Those deaths, which can be counted in millions, must be
put in the other side of the balance to disposing of COVID.

Fennel you are so right.

Namsnanny The evidence now available shows that smokers get COVID more severely and are more likely to die of the disease.

Thanks Maizie.

Apologies, I gave the wrong figure for Monday's deaths last night. It should have been 102. 151 was Sunday's.

I've only just come back to this thread so Thank you EllanVannin Monica and anyone who addressed my comments.

It's getting colder all across Europe. Some people continue to be diligent and some people who were happily outside visiting 2 meters apart are now deciding just coming in for a bit won't hurt. They are thinking, well none of us feel poorly so we will be OK. They are thinking, I must make an exception for this relative or dear friend. They think they are the only ones being a bit naughty and it won't really make a difference. They aren't the only ones doing it and it is making a difference and not following the rules is a health lottery right now. I think the deaths in England (Wales, Scotland and NI a bit lower) are currently 71 per 100,000 which may not seem that frightening but that equates (scuse my quick maths) to about 1 in every 1400 people. These aren't good odds. Please be safe.

I don't disagree at all with what you've posted Astral, people think that their one little action won't make any difference, when of course it does.

Just a comment though about the deaths running at 71 in 100,000. I believe that is since the start of the pandemic? It's not really true to say this isn't good odds when we consider how many deaths there have been altogether in that time. To put the 1 in 1400 in context, around 1 in 95 people die every year in the UK, by my quick calculation. I'm not minimising it either, but we mustn't make people unnecessarily scared. The weekly rate in England at the moment is 3 in a million.