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Second wave sweeping Europe?

(115 Posts)
MawB2 Sun 25-Oct-20 10:14:51

Depressing reading, but just in case anybody thought we were alone in the U.K. with our rise in cases and the new restrictions.
From The Guardian (sorry for the long cut and paste but there is so much detail, I couldn’t adequately summarise it)
France reported more than 40,000 new cases on two days this week, bringing its 14-day incidence rate to 521. Strict measures including a 9pm-6am curfew now cover two-thirds of the population.
Germany, whose infection rate was far lower than most EU countries this spring, is also seeing new daily cases surge alarmingly: from 5,250 a day to 13,500 this week for an incidence rate of 319 – a “very serious” rise, a senior official warned.
Spain, one of the worst affected during the first wave, is again facing crisis, becoming the first western European country to pass 1 million cases this week after recording 20,000 new infections on two consecutive days.
Italy, another country hit hard this spring, hit a new case record on Friday with 19,000 infections amid fears the pandemic is again spiralling out of control. With a 14-day incidence rate of 240 per 100,000, the situation is “dramatic”
The epidemic in Belgium, which suffered one of Europe’s highest per-capita death tolls this spring, is “out of control” and “the most dangerous in Europe”, the health minister has said, with a 14-day incidence rate of a startling 1,115.
The Czech Republic, lauded as a first wave success with infection rates among the lowest on the continent, is now among the highest with an even higher incidence rate of 1,210 Like Belgium, it seems headed for a new lockdown
Sweden, an international outlier with its anti-lockdown strategy, has introduced mandatory regional measures to combat a sudden surge that last week saw the number of new daily infections exceed 1,000 from barely 150 in early September.
Finland, with one of Europe’s lowest infection and death rates first time round, is one of few EU countries to be fighting this second wave effectively. Tough regional measures have reversed a surge in new cases over the past week, leaving the country’s 14-day incidence rate at 52 per 100,000 inhabitants

Not good is it? sad But perhaps Finland is pointing the way forward?

Esspee Sun 25-Oct-20 10:20:57

I think this was inevitable with the cooler, wetter weather forcing us indoors, the return to schools and universities and so many young people rebelling and ignoring guidelines. Not forgetting those who should know better simply thinking the guidelines apply to others and not to them.
More testing is another factor that springs to mind.

BlueSky Sun 25-Oct-20 11:25:41

What I find depressing is that there’s not much difference between countries where they had strict rules with fines, masks indoors and outdoors etc and the UK.

GrannyGravy13 Sun 25-Oct-20 11:27:58

Your right Bluesky the virus always seems to be one step ahead, whatever precautions are introduced.

Luckygirl Sun 25-Oct-20 11:40:46

No surprise really.

Until this fiasco of a test and trace system gets sorted the virus will stay one jump ahead of us.

GrannyGravy13 Sun 25-Oct-20 11:44:50

I heard that France has/is in the process of abandoning their T & T system as it hasn’t been as useful as they thought.

T & T can never be 100% effective, it is only as good as people are honest when checking into venues.

GagaJo Sun 25-Oct-20 11:51:23

China has controlled it. There are very few cases there. A personal friend (as in someone I know, in the flesh) of mine wrote this on Facebook.

How could a country of 1.6bn have so few deaths from the virus outbreak? Surely it's a government cover-up, how could they possibly do better than our advanced Western democracies?

These are photos I took on Jan 26th, BEFORE people were ordered into lockdown. The shopping malls were eerily quiet on what would've normally been one of the busiest days of the year after Chinese New year and the metro was at about 5% or less of its normal amount. To still read of police breaking up house parties in England and people flocking to public places as soon as the temperature gets into double figures is, quite frankly, embarrassing.

The virus really did not take hold anywhere outside of Hubei province (comparable in population to England) as social distancing was almost a natural reaction and taken incredibly seriously. Not to mention the technological infrastructure that was used to trace and test anyone who may have come into contact with someone who was infected. Simply put, you can't compare the numbers of the country and declare foul play to suit an egotistical narrative.

Was China perfect in its response? Absolutely not and there were certainly blunders in the beginning. Would the Western powers have reacted better? Well it's obvious that they can't even do that given 6 weeks to plan for the inevitable. Yes, the numbers in Wuhan are going to be higher but the inaccurate death tolls are a reflection of the inability to have tested and treated many that didn't make it to hospital, which is also what is happening right now in every other country.

Personally, I feel the scenes at the Cheltenham festival are quite possibly some of the most disgraceful in living memory as a Brit. The decision to prioritise the economy over public health will be viewed with disdain for many a generation to come. I can't understand how there are people who believe Boris Johnson and the team handled it well. There was so much warning, yet the slowest response imaginable.

Stick in there, life will get back to normal. We got stuck in traffic driving about 22km to downtown Shanghai yesterday and it was so good to experience again as there is light at the end of the tunnel, but only if everyone plays their part.

kircubbin2000 Sun 25-Oct-20 11:59:04

Is China telling the truth?

Namsnanny Sun 25-Oct-20 11:59:44

If I've understood it correctly, people are infectious before they suffer from any signs of C19. How can we expect test and trace to cope in that case?
Taiwan and Japan have test and trace which seemed to work slightly better than in europe but they were stopping flights from China as far back as Dec (Tiawan). They didn't trust the Chinese info so made their own decisions based on past experiences.
Europe and WHO were to slow now it seems there is no way to catch up.

Namsnanny Sun 25-Oct-20 12:00:42

too slow. Now it seems..

Namsnanny Sun 25-Oct-20 12:07:06

Good question kirrcubbin2000

Ashcombe Sun 25-Oct-20 12:09:56

Interesting graph.

Namsnanny Sun 25-Oct-20 12:15:25

Yes very Ashcombe

JenniferEccles Sun 25-Oct-20 12:19:06

Let’s hope those who are constantly blaming the government for our rising cases learns that we are by no means alone in this, especially as the report was from their bible, the Guardian!

Meanwhile, it’s not all doom and gloom.Vaccine trials are going well and every country, like us is better prepared in dealing with it compared with how we all were back in the Spring.

sodapop Sun 25-Oct-20 12:19:11

grin you jest surely kircubbin2000

Redhead56 Sun 25-Oct-20 12:23:17

Me repeating myself but hopefully on the right post now, if the virus is sweeping across Europe why are people allowed to travel? It makes no sense whatsoever and we are (most of us) abiding by the rules it is totally ridiculous.

LauraNorder Sun 25-Oct-20 12:28:00

Good article Maw. Thanks.
In one way it’s reassuring that we’re all in the same boat and our country isn’t doing better or worse than elsewhere BUT very depressing that nobody seems able to get it under control no matter which way we go.
Not sure I’m confident of Chinese data though.
I’m in full agreement with what JenniferEccles said.

LauraNorder Sun 25-Oct-20 12:30:33

The comment on Chinese data was to Gagajo

MayBee70 Sun 25-Oct-20 12:33:23


If I've understood it correctly, people are infectious before they suffer from any signs of C19. How can we expect test and trace to cope in that case?
Taiwan and Japan have test and trace which seemed to work slightly better than in europe but they were stopping flights from China as far back as Dec (Tiawan). They didn't trust the Chinese info so made their own decisions based on past experiences.
Europe and WHO were to slow now it seems there is no way to catch up.

If everyone wears a mask (which is what happens in many eastern countries) it reduces the spread of the virus even before people show symptoms or are asymptomatic. Also Eastern countries understood the need for ventilation: something that has only just been mentioned here. Also their diet is healthier than ours and fewer people are overweight.

petra Sun 25-Oct-20 12:42:36

Why was there an increase of 67 % in traffic outside Wuhan hospitals in October 2019 from the exact time period the year before. And a massive surge in internet searches ( in china) looking at covid symptoms?
The traffic info is from satellite images. The internet data was gathered by Harvard university.

EllanVannin Sun 25-Oct-20 12:42:50

It was the first wave that never went away----not a second wave.
Pandemics hang around for a good two years as long as there's continual movement of individuals. It stands to reason. Nobody has stayed in one designated " space " for any length of time so it's what we expect, isn't it ?

Namsnanny Sun 25-Oct-20 12:44:05

I dont disagree with your post MayBee70 I just dont think it's that simple.
For example (and shoot me down if I'm out of touch with new information) but early on it was mooted that smoking actually rendered protection against Covid. Is this still the case? If so China has the highest % of smokers, could that help their figures?
It needs a multiethnic disciplined approach. There is no magic bullet.

Namsnanny Sun 25-Oct-20 12:44:36


EllanVannin Sun 25-Oct-20 12:45:19

Just think how many carriers there are. No symptoms themselves, just a carrier of the virus. It does happen and the only thing that will block it out is a vaccine.

Fennel Sun 25-Oct-20 12:54:16

I think it can be misleading to compare rates in different countries.
eg Finland has a small population and they're widely scattered.
China, India etc vast areas where it will be imposible to detect all cases, causes of death.
Some countries more medically sophisticated than others.
Within Europe comparisons maybe more meaningful.