I'm glad I didn't offend JenniferEccles.
I agree with your assessment about scientists having very different estimates, but it was the word "inaccurate" that I would take issue with. Scientists use different models to try to predict what is going to happen. They may or may not turn out to be correct, but "inaccurate" suggests sloppiness or lack of expertise, and I don't believe that's the case.
I do believe that they - government and scientists - are using the worst case figures to frighten us into complying. It worked with the first lockdown, but is probably working less well now.
Wicked Little Letters? (funny film of a long-forgotten case)