I prefer to heed what Kate Bingham, the chairwoman of the UK Vaccine Taskforce, said in October 2020:
"Ms Bingham said it was important to manage expectations about what a vaccine could really change.
She said: "These are not going to be silver bullet vaccines and everyone gets back to work as normal on 1 January.
"It's going to take time, we're probably going to need more than one vaccine for different populations."
When can we get back to normal?
Ms Bingham said it was difficult to put an exact date on when normal life could resume - especially without knowing what type of vaccine will be available, how many doses will be needed, how effective it might be and which age group it might work best in.
"There's a real sense of when can we get back to normal? Of course that's what I hope will happen, but we don't have the data to be sure that that will happen and it also won't be overnight."
One worry, she said, is that work on a vaccine would have to start again from scratch if the virus was to mutate sufficiently in the future.
But she was hopeful that by 2022 there would be no need for people to wear face masks, and was more confident that we could be bringing in 2022 with family gatherings and parties.
People may also be able to go on summer holidays next year, she predicted - although it might not be easy to go by air, depending on how effective any vaccine is."
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54573288
When I read the above article, I remember thinking that 2022 would be a realistic target.