Proof of the power of vaccination

I read this last night Whitewave. I’m as pleased as anyone else about the success of the vaccine roll out but whenever I say we should proceed with more caution than we are I get accused of being a killjoy etc. More haste less speed as my mum used to say. I think it’s crazy to talk about people not wearing masks from June because people are used to it now and if we stop it will be well nigh impossible to get them to do it again if infection rates rise. We are so close to being able to live a normal life but it needs to be after the younger group now being vaccinated have had their second jab.

Alegrias1

Prof Pagel is not a member of SAGE, and she is speaking in a personal capacity. Independent SAGE is not an advisor to the Government and are not accountable for the outcomes of their opinions.

Not saying she's wrong but this must be taken in context.

So what are you saying?

She is wrong or correct in her conclusions?

Yes, the virus might behave as no virus has even done before and magically morph into a vaccine-resistant variant overnight.

I don't often disagree with you, Alegrias, but do you have any evidence for your apparent claim that our vaccine s will defeat any mutation of the virus?

I realise that 'flu is a completely different virus, but the annual vaccine offered is based on what is likely to be the predominant strain of the virus and doesn't necessarily protect against all. Why do you imply that c19, also a virus, different?

I literally said "Not saying she's wrong but this must be taken in context."

There are a group of scientists who have the luxury of being able to look at things only from a scientific viewpoint and not from the viewpoint of keeping the country functioning, and Independent SAGE is made up of scientists with no accountability.

So somebody has to balance the probability that the Indian variant will cause high numbers of cases with the continued harms that restrictions are doing to society. IMO, if we stop completely every time there is a new variant, we'll never open up. That doesn't mean we should plough ahead regardless, but it is one thing for an unaccountable scientists to give their opinions via the Guardian and Twitter, and another for scientists and governments to make the hard decisions.

I wouldn't want their jobs.

My main issue is that the government has such an atrocious track record in dealing with lockdown and the level of illness and death, that I view everything that they do with regard to covid with a great deal of scepticism.

I don't often disagree with you, Alegrias, but do you have any evidence for your apparent claim that our vaccine s will defeat any mutation of the virus?

I didn't say that or claim that MaizieD, read it again. I said it wouldn't mutate to be vaccine resistant overnight. By which I meant in a short timeframe, obviously.

Alegrias1 I am still agreeing with you.

The Indian variant would not be here had the government stopped all travel from India to this country.
They knew the variant was there so why give a time and date for them to come into this country,all travel to and from India should have stopped then and there.
It`s not bluddy rocket science.

It's not bluddy rocket science.

'tis though. That's why they're paid to make the hard decisions. (Which they don't always get right, not by a long chalk)

GG13 - I'm getting worried

timetogo2016

The Indian variant would not be here had the government stopped all travel from India to this country.
They knew the variant was there so why give a time and date for them to come into this country,all travel to and from India should have stopped then and there.
It`s not bluddy rocket science.

It’s not that easy though is it?

Could you imagine the outcry and newspaper headlines British Citizens being abandoned if they could not return home from India or anywhere else in the World come to that. Flights coming from India carry things other than passengers, vaccines are just one example.

The UK is an Island, but it is incomparable to Australia or New Zealand, it’s an International Hub, not just a destination.

But we shouldn’t be seeing pictures like this. Taken recently at Heathrow.

This is a Petri dish in the making.

Whitewavemark2

I’ve noticed an upward trend in my area, albeit it at a low level but up to about a fortnight ago it was down week on week for a long time. Last week it was 20 more than the previous week and this week 53 more than last week.

Bugger

same here, active cases seem to be growing alarming here and it the two neighbouring boroughs. That said, I know of several people who have had covid in the last month and they are all 40-50 and their children, all had it mildly, all recovered and vaccinated people in their house didn't catch it

So as an example last week Scotland averaged between 0-1000 cases. Now large swathes of Scotland are averaging between 1000-2000 cases.

There are more areas in England and Wales that are increasing as well.

This is why I think the call to rethink the road map should be respected and perhaps rethought.

Well, I actually tend to agree with you. Especially as there is evidence the vaccination is working and more people will be getting their 2nd dose and we are moving onto younger age groups

JaneJudge

Well, I actually tend to agree with you. Especially as there is evidence the vaccination is working and more people will be getting their 2nd dose and we are moving onto younger age groups

Yes, I think it is just a matter of patience. Take our cue from countries like NZ and Australia.

By July with a fair wind we will be there.

Alegrias1

Thanks Casdon for trying to present some good news. ?

The vaccine is working in the population to which it has been given. It works against the "Indian" variant. Yes, the virus might behave as no virus has even done before and magically morph into a vaccine-resistant variant overnight.

And we might get hit by a meteor.

Just because you added the word overnight doesn’t mean that you weren’t being dismissive of my request for caution. We’re just lucky, thus far, that the virus isn’t as transmissible as some viruses and doesn’t have a high death rate. But when you have huge outbreaks in countries such as India the virus seems to mutate very quickly. It’s not alive, doesn’t have a brain and it can only be spread via us so we need to be one step ahead of it. Thus far the whole world has been reactive and we need to be proactive.

What is happening in India is heart breaking. Obviously there are massive issues with poverty there but I was reading about the black fungus and how it is presenting inpatients with Covid there It says Covid creates the perfect environment for it to take hold but I suppose it just shows it's about more than 'just' covid iykwim

Casdon

Case numbers are very important Baggs because that’s the only way we know how much COVID is in our area. and can act accordingly. Case rates have been a predictor of hospitalisation and death rates until vaccinations were given, which was the point I was trying to make when I posted this news.

No mention is made of the government being blamed for hospital transmission in the article, unless I’ve gone word blind?

I've also been adding data to the Zöe app since it was first launched.

I can't remember now, but I think I mentioned government-blaming because it appeared in this thread.

Yes, cases have been some kind of rough predictor of possible hospitalisations and death until, as you rightly say, vaccinations were given.

My gripe with the news media is really that, on the whole, they only mention case numbers. I think people would be less terrified, again on the whole, if hospitalisations and deaths of covid were always put alongside. They don't do that.
Most people who contract covid get better.

My grankids have had covid. They weren't ill.

I work in a Scottish charity that has provided, during the pandemic, meals on wheels and chat visits to old people's own homes. None of the employees in the team I work in and none of the old people we visit has contracted covid, except for one who went into hospital with something else and caught covid there.

As for long covid, having symptoms that hang on for ages after virus infections is not uncommon. If every virus infection that has long term effects was given a long-something name, we'd run out of space (I exaggerate, of course).

I think the focus on long covid is because this understanding of virus effects is fairly recent. I'm not saying it doesn't matter, just that it's not exclusive to covid.

Baggs

Why do news media keep publishing case numbers? It's numbers of hospitalisations and deaths that are important. If cases rise but those other two numbers do not, what's the problem?

Also, why is government blamed when people catch covid in hospital? Are MRSA and other nosocomial infections government's fault as well?

Because the more cases the more risk of variation.

I think on the whole though we would much rather that anyone whatever their age did not catch covid as it is such a lottery as to how it will affect you.

JaneJudge

What is happening in India is heart breaking. Obviously there are massive issues with poverty there but I was reading about the black fungus and how it is presenting inpatients with Covid there It says Covid creates the perfect environment for it to take hold but I suppose it just shows it's about more than 'just' covid iykwim

Did you see that on Dr Johns blog? I’m sure it’s because of DrJohn that I’m so worried about restrictions being lifted too soon but, thus far he hasn’t been wrong about many things (if any).

Whitewavemark2

I think on the whole though we would much rather that anyone whatever their age did not catch covid as it is such a lottery as to how it will affect you.

yes ^^

Maybee, I haven't. I'll have a look.

Alegrias1

Prof Pagel is not a member of SAGE, and she is speaking in a personal capacity. Independent SAGE is not an advisor to the Government and are not accountable for the outcomes of their opinions.

Not saying she's wrong but this must be taken in context.

Are you implying her data is wrong and/or misleading?