Chris Whitty - another lockdown

We might as well face the fact that life as we used to know it is over; Covid is with us for the forseeable and we will be forever in and out of lockdown.
There is never going to be an "ideal" time for us to unlock as there will always be new variants cropping up and spreading, without we all sit indoors in complete lockdown for the next 10 years by which time there will be no country left to come out to anyway.
The government have not, it is true, exactly covered themselves in glory in many respects but rather than everyone pointing the finger at them what about pointing it at China who are responsible for this whole mess in the first place and have yet to offer up an explanation to the world (and no, I don't buy the WHOs conclusion that the fact that it all started in Wuhan, 4 miles away from a lab experimenting with it is just "coincidence"). Various whistleblowers and documentaries have detailed lies and cover-ups which suggests they are not innocent victims in all of this as they would have us believe

Estimates still aren't forecasts though

I suspect that the scientists using the supercomputers to calculate R would be a bit put out at being told their calculations are guesstimates.

I wasn't referring to the R rate that's why I didn't mention it. If 3 oranges fall from a truck doing 90mph on a bumpy road once , it's likely that under same circs 3oranges will again fall from the truck during the second journey. But if the oranges turn themselves into boxes of love hearts , our predictions will most likely be wrong we can only estimate based on what already know so it's what I used to correctly name a "guesstimate" wild card being nature. So called projected models can and have been wildly wrong.(2million deaths)

Fashionista1

The problem with the virus if it is left to take it's course the more infections you get the more likely it will be that there will be another mutation which could evade the vaccine. I listened to someone from the WHO on LBC radio who says this reckless lifting of restrictions could also be endangering other countries regarding mutation across the world leaving us back to where we were originally. The world is not happy with us. 140,000 at Silverstone today!

Funny how the biggest and quickest mass events to be given the greenlight are : racing Cheltenham and derby: cricket tour: motor racing Silverstone: guards band playing Caroline!:royal Phil. G7. Wimbledon!!!! Etc then there's football reluctantly allowed mostly because the celebs and moneybags have a louder voice. Rugby,no.brass bands and small choirs? No. Snooker.no. greyhound racing.no. anything remotely not of the overpaid underworked and paid for not a lot themed entertainment ilk Theme is strictly out of bounds! We can't have the Hoi polloi mixing and enjoying themselves. And what IS the obsession with opening drinking venues? Is that how we measure"freedom"? How quickly we can all get back to getting wrecked on a regular basis.no wonder the world sees us as the out of control boozin centre of the universe! There no hope....

Gabrielle56

MissAdventure

Has it always been an estimate then?
I'm not being facetious; I really don't understand it all.
Would they be hinting at another lockdown based on an estimate?

Estimates are forecasts based on past data.its a way of second guessing or calculating likelihoods based on Models or known behaviours of past conditions and their outcome. If 3people were infected by just one person's contact before - that is the based known element of predicting that 3 people will be infected by just one contact under the same conditions the second time around.theonly issue is that as with all natural elements, like viruses, they move the goalposts by changing themselves (variants) so our predictions become more complex and sometimes are wrong!

That's not really true Gabrielle56

The R rate isn't a forecast, its an indicator of how many people were being infected at a particular point in the pandemic, when the calculations were made. Its not second guessing, its an estimate in the mathematical sense which is why there are margins of error.

Just because there are margins of error that doesn't make it wrong.

Sorry, more stats and numbers....

Make the most of the natural fire break of schools breaking up for the holidays. Come September, Flu Season, and increase CV infections, I can confidently predict there will be another lockdown. I shall make the most of the next six weeks, so that I don’t feel so despairing when it happens. However, I shall be wearing mask, keeping distance, not visiting night clubs, and just being very cautious, as I think we all need to be. It is quite possible to have a life as well as behave cautiously. This is for some foreseeable time the future, until they discover a treatment for the virus, or the sickness, this is life as we know it.
Meanwhile, there is a more pressing concern, re climate change. The sudden floods in Europe are a glimpse of our bleak future if we continue to not act.

Boris Johnson is on record as saying "Let the bodies pile high in their thousands- there will be no more lockdowns!"
This pandemic is likely to persist for another year, judging by the progress of the last great pandemic in 1918. That was a Coronavirus too, and it's still around, but we seem to have become used to it.
Managing a pandemic is never going to be easy, but at the outset of this crisis, Johnson had access to some of the best scientific minds in the world- people with vast experience in the control and mitigation of serious infectious diseases.
It seems that he did not attempt to obtain a consensus of their opinions at an early stage, but held out until a vast swathe of lethal infection had swept through the country before scratching his head and wondering how to proceed.
Had the proven and already available test and trace system been used (it was free!) We might have been in a better position. The system which Serco cobbled together didn't work, and we have paid £37 billion for that failure. Many paid with their lives.
Had we started lockdown earlier, and done without the Cheltenham racing festival and the football final, both of which were 'super-spreader' events, lives would have been saved.
Hindsight is, as they say, a wonderful thing, but foresight is pretty useful too, and I can't help feeling that we would have had far fewer deaths and far less financial loss had that foresight and the readily available science been used a little more prudently.
We should still proceed with caution, and continue with extra hygiene until this thing has burned itself out. I shall continue to wear a mask in shops, on public transport, and in crowded areas, but that's my choice - I'm sure many will disagree.

Because of the ridiculous hype attached to "freedom day" by the great British press, everyone is bricking themselves in case by way of stopping 1000s of mortalities we have to lockdown again and are sh** scared of even whispering the word..... Even though it's probab what will ultimately save all our collective bacon's(or tofu etc)

MissAdventure

Has it always been an estimate then?
I'm not being facetious; I really don't understand it all.
Would they be hinting at another lockdown based on an estimate?

Estimates are forecasts based on past data.its a way of second guessing or calculating likelihoods based on Models or known behaviours of past conditions and their outcome. If 3people were infected by just one person's contact before - that is the based known element of predicting that 3 people will be infected by just one contact under the same conditions the second time around.theonly issue is that as with all natural elements, like viruses, they move the goalposts by changing themselves (variants) so our predictions become more complex and sometimes are wrong!

Chris Whitby does not endorse or aggree with most government decision imho, he is just an advisor

Half a braincell.

You seem nice for a mental health practitioner.

Wondering why references are needed - it’s not rocket science - anyone with half a brain cell can see that the words ‘further restrictions’ are a precursor to the word ‘lockdown’ - this is the evidence we’ve been living with now since February 2020 - we can all predict what is going to happen when presented with statistics - we not only have Covid racing away but we have norovirus as well now plus the long Covid issue as well as the severe organ inflammation being experienced by the some of the younger population - as a mental health practitioner I know more than most what restrictions on our freedom do to our emotional selves - however as long as we have a population that has a high percentage of dimwits and self-centred people we need to impose social distance.

I went into a small food shop yesterday (in Scotland) where the woman behind the counter and the two people she was serving were not wearing masks. I left without making any purchases.

Works both ways MerylStreep

GrowingOldDisgraceFully
I haven’t worn a mask since Boris announced when the restrictions would be lifted.
I don’t go food shopping only because my OH has done that for years.
I’ve been to Marks, Next, various independent outlets garden centres, B&Q etc.
I wasn’t alone in not wearing a mask and not once was I challenged.
If i were to be challenged I would just take my money elsewhere. There are lots of businesses waiting to take it off me ?

I’m in Wales. We are lucky at the moment thanks to Steady Drakeford. However I am keepingto my own rules to try and stay safe.

Good post Greeneyedgirl.

(For those who are surprised by that, it's because that is a considered post, not an extreme one.)

What will all these Lockdowns do to our and our children's immunne systems. Neil Ferguson, the Epidemiologist on the Andrew Marr programme this morning stated the obvious really when he said this year most people's immunity to Flu will have wained due to Lockdowns and social distancing and when we all mingle again more people will get the flu. Lockdowns are not the answer...we have to learn to live with this virus and fund the NHS properly. He was also a bit coy about whether face masks actually did anything to reduce transmission!

Tomorrow for many is not Freedom Day and things will continue as they were before. Businesses will not be able to open, not because of govt imposed restrictions, but because of staff shortages through sickness, brexit or staff being pinged. Many people don't go to theatres, restaurants, sporting events anyway, so no change. Many won't go out through fear, or illness, or lack of facilities to go out. For me, Freedom would have been the end of facemasks, but quite understandably, shops will still require customers to wear them, so I'm not arguing with that. So for me, tomorrow will be no different to today, or yesterday, or all of this vile situation. There have been numerous reports of other countries allowing more freedom, then having to reimpose restrictions, so it will be nothing unusual for England to have to do the same. As said elsewhere on here, it's the same old same old, I fear that it will become the norm for the in/out restrictions pattern for the years to come and so terribly depressing.
What does not help is the reporting this morning about Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak NOT isolating despite having been in proximity to Savid Javid, who has tested positive. That says a lot about one rule for them, another rule for the hoardes of the great unwashed (as I suspect they view the general population). They have apparently done a quick U-turn on that, because BJ has now received contact from T&T so is legally obliged to comply, unlike the ping they had received earlier, which is not legally binding. So, they would have ignored the 'ping', while refusing to action the app being adjusted to prevent thousands needlessly being warned to self isolate. Says it all really.
I am just so tired of it all now.

I don't think people will comply with another lockdown. I live on a main road and during the first lockdown there was no traffic whatsoever and nobody at all walking by. During the second there was barely a reduction in traffic and people walking by. We have just got to move on with our lives now but with caution. Definitely masks on public transport and in supermarkets and shops etc.

I was on the shielded list and am still wearing a mask if anyone comes in to the house (and I request that they do too). I go shopping once a fortnight. And I've been to my daughter's once (they tested negative). I think a lot of us are still living under lock down rules regardless of the government.

Guess you don’t need to be a Prof to work that one out. Numbers rising. Hospital admissions rising. Medics getting overwhelmed again, younger people and double vaccinated. Some people think they are immune as have had vaccines but this is not the case. Extreme caution IS needed, virus doesn’t disappear on Monday. I think PM playing a very risky ‘game’ . Trying for his herd immunity.

There is never going to be agreement. Scientists of whatever discipline are human beings, and are swayed by opinion and yes, politics as are the rest of us.
I tend to agree with indie Sage because I like what they are saying perhaps influenced by my political point of view. It is easy to quote scientists from a different persuasion, as from time to time Allegrias and others do. We tend to seek out arguments which support our own leaning.
I like to hear another set of opinions, and occasionally can change my view, but there isn’t such a thing as “pure science”.
I believe the lockdown has eased too early and it is a big “experiment”, but respect others who disagree.

We're told that Sajid Javid felt a bit 'groggy' on Friday so had a test, feels fine on Saturday but test is positive so this is a 'case'. How many 'cases' are like this? How many people are now off work because they've been pinged from that one case? This is where blank numbers fall down.

I can’t understand why when sew weeks ago the government talked about vaccinations for 12-18 year olds, then have done nothing to set up a programme for this age group. I have two grandchildren 13 and nearly 16, both with mild cerebral palsy and some other health issues and want nothing more than to see them vaccinated. They both get flu jabs as a matter of course because of their health issues, so why not get this age group vaccinated against COVID. Until they are, the virus will continue to spread.

The problem with the virus if it is left to take it's course the more infections you get the more likely it will be that there will be another mutation which could evade the vaccine. I listened to someone from the WHO on LBC radio who says this reckless lifting of restrictions could also be endangering other countries regarding mutation across the world leaving us back to where we were originally. The world is not happy with us. 140,000 at Silverstone today!