Infection rates down!

The next person who says "exponentially" I'm going to ask for the mathematical function describing the growth.

Sorry

Spector's figures are based on extrapolation from the reported symptoms and positive tests of his reporting base (which includes me). ONS is based on random testing across the whole population. None of them are "right" in isolation, we need to look at them all.

Thanks WWM2.

They said that the figures don’t make sense and are almost certainly incorrect.

Sorry but that's a simplification . The figures show the number of cases that have been identified via the testing system. Its probably under reported but seeing as how tests have fallen by 14% and positive cases by 36%, there is something else going on, not just a reduction in testing. Spector's data shows that cases have effectively flattened out.

Hospital numbers and number of fatalities has flattened out, as PippaZ said, I think that's more relevant now.

I must say that the Zoe figures are quite different from the ones we are given and in my area the are rising exponentially.

Some of the anomalies in the data are explained on the Worldometers site as being down to this:

Reported cases are sometimes removed if subsequent tests are negative. This happens when cases identified through a positive rapid lateral flow test are followed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests within 3 days that are all negative. These cases are removed daily from 21 May 2021. Because of this, the number of newly-reported cases may not be the same as the difference between the total number of reported cases from one day to the next. The number of newly-reported cases in England and the UK is adjusted to take this into account, but the numbers for regions and local authorities are not adjusted. This means that for regions and local authorities, this figure does not show the actual number of new cases reported on that date.

There you go - clear as mud!

Alegrias1

Which scientists?

Why are the figures not credible?

Scientists of John Campbells log as well as a video on Zoe.

They said that the figures don’t make sense and are almost certainly incorrect.

Which saddened me but ever onwards!

The ONS data covers the week to the 24th July, so they describe the situation as it was at least a week ago. The people who are in that number could have tested positive as early as 17th/18th July, which is when reported cases were at their peak.

The Scottish figures have been falling since the start of July but this is the first ONS report that also has figures falling.

Sadly ONS figures suggest cases are still rising, up 14% from last week.
news.sky.com/story/covid-19-third-wave-far-from-over-and-now-under-the-radar-as-number-of-tests-falls-12368066

Call me cynical, but it wouldn't surprise me if this turned out to be a simple error, say for example, missing out cases from a particular place; or not being able to fit all the data into the spreadsheet, etc. It seems highly unlikely that cases would just drop from over 40,000 to 25,000 rather than going down gradually.

I’m beginning to think that mask wearing has actually become part of our culture. There are as many adverts fir them now as there were a year ago. Just think how many deaths from flu etc this will prevent in years to come.

JaneJudge haha, you could very well be right. It really doesn’t make any sense though. A double vaccinated person from France is just as likely to spread any infection that they might have whether they are French citizens or British citizens. These double standards are very worrying.

I think the number of people hospitalised and the number of deaths is pretty accurate as they are actual events reported through the NHS. I very much doubt that the number of people infected is. If you look at the latest Zoe Covid Study you will see the difference in the reports of infection they are gathering and those we get from the government. A reasonable conjecture would be that fewer people are testing themselves if they have a mild case. Those who are infected but not testing would not appear in the Government stats. Not testing would seem likely when we add our knowledge about people finding ways not to be 'pinged'.

The good thing is they are both pointing to the numbers have stopped rising and, at the very least, have remained steady in the last reported week.

maddyone

Why are we letting double vaccinated people in from France and America without quarantine, but then saying British people must quarantine when they return whether double vaccinated or not. I’m puzzled.

Presumably French and American people on holiday will spend money and British people returning from holiday will be spent out?

Alegrias1

Which scientists?

Why are the figures not credible?

I would like to know this too.

Why are we letting double vaccinated people in from France and America without quarantine, but then saying British people must quarantine when they return whether double vaccinated or not. I’m puzzled.

Which scientists?

Why are the figures not credible?

Unfortunately the scientists are questioning the figures because they are simply not credible.

Shame, but ever hopeful.

It isn’t mentioned on the NHS covid symptom checker though. Or wasn’t when I last looked.

Can't remember where exactly I have seen it but it was in several reports that to look out for sneezing sore throat and head ache basically similar to the common cold
If I or my DH feel off kilter as he did on Monday we do Lateral flow tests his was only an upset stomach and feeling tired but still have tested He was fine next day
Regular Lateral flow tests can help my DIL tested positive with absolutely no symptoms whatsoever

Why aren’t the government informing people that symptoms for covid at the moment are just similar to the common cold. There must be people unknowingly infecting vulnerable people because they don’t have classic covid symptoms. I’m hoping beyond hope that covid is turning into more of a common cold virus but I daren’t raise my hopes yet again.

If there were 10% less tests it still wouldn't equate to the drop we have had What percentage of this 10% would be positive anyway

Indeed Alegrias. You don’t need to be an Oxbridge educated mathematician to see that the numbers don’t add up.

But its not Nacky. The numbers don't add up.

10% fewer tests, 30% fewer positives. What about the other 20%?

But there are others who were not testing and now are testing. I’m one, and my husband is another. As my elderly mother has now been discharged into a care home to recover since her fall and broken shoulder, we have to test every time we go to see her. It’s just the Lateral Flow tests, but I’ve been doing them daily before visits. However, I’m not visiting again now till Saturday, but nonetheless, it does show that there are many tests been done that are not being done in schools.

I agree with the people who say that the drop in recorded Covid numbers is likely to be down to fewer people testing and therefore fewer positive tests. Until very recently children and school staff were testing twice a week and now are not and also it appears many people have deleted the NHS app.

It should go down if a high proportion of adults are double vaccinated & many have caught the virus it must hit a point where the virus is having a hard time