Infection rates down!

The ONS figure for week ending 17 July indicated 1 in 75 members of the public were infected. This dramatic fall in infection seems to be inexplicable. Maybe someone has changed the methodology.

It’s great news about the infection figures, just hope it continues.

Aleg don’t be so touchy.
It would account for twowolves thinking the Covid figures in Scotland were the worst in Europe.
It may not be the case, but equally it could be.

MayBee70

Will people do that if they’re due to take the kids on holiday next week, though?

Probably not, Maybee especially if it means losing a great deal of money. Holiday accommodation in this country has gone up in price this year.

Okay thanks lemongrove that makes more sense, although I didn’t get that inference from your original post, maybe others did. Scotland did have the worst Covid rates in Europe, but it was at the beginning of July not last week, so maybe TwoWolves misheard or got the day she heard it wrong.

lemongrove

Casdon

Does drug death rates have some relevance to covid death rates lemongrove, I must be missing something?

In this context yes, it’s possible that if listening to radio with only half an ear whilst busy, an item of news ( there was something yesterday afternoon on radio 4 saying that Scotland has the highest drug deaths in Europe) could be misunderstood to be about Covid.

Oh, good. Because some people might have thought that you were trying to have a dig at Scotland through one of our biggest health issues. Cause that would have been despicable, wouldn't it?

Casdon

What your graph includes is probably a number of parents of children who have picked up the virus from their children, but aren’t vaccinated themselves I would hazard a guess Alegrias1. The age profile has definitely changed compared with earlier admissions profiles. Although there aren’t many children and young people, it’s more proportionately than in the earlier peaks.

Agreed Casdon. I just wondered about the claim that most people in hospital were under 30, that doesn't seem to be the case.

According to the BBC website checker, in my area of SW London, the current cases in ages 0-59 far exceed those of ages 60+.

Which would seem to indicate that the vaccine is having a major effect, so ?.

The one young person (21) I know who’s had it fairly recently, a student niece, had it only very mildly. TBH I was surprised she didn’t get it sooner, since she was racketing around Europe with a lot of friends all through the Christmas and Easter holidays. And none of them paying much attention, I dare say, to social distancing.
Should add that she was unable to go home (to Singapore) for either period because the compulsory hotel quarantine would have used up virtually all her time.

What your graph includes is probably a number of parents of children who have picked up the virus from their children, but aren’t vaccinated themselves I would hazard a guess Alegrias1. The age profile has definitely changed compared with earlier admissions profiles. Although there aren’t many children and young people, it’s more proportionately than in the earlier peaks.

Casdon

Does drug death rates have some relevance to covid death rates lemongrove, I must be missing something?

In this context yes, it’s possible that if listening to radio with only half an ear whilst busy, an item of news ( there was something yesterday afternoon on radio 4 saying that Scotland has the highest drug deaths in Europe) could be misunderstood to be about Covid.

I thought people had to test before they went abroad? My friend went to Majorca and they had to all have so many negative tests before and after?

However we are now finding that the majority of those who do end up in hospital are under 30.

I'm wondering where you get that number from varian?

In Scotland last week, only 12% of hospital admissions were under 25. Don't have the figures for under 30 but 40% were under 45 - still not the majority. Could be different in England I suppose, but unlikely?

Let’s hope the rates continue to fall.

I still don’t know of anyone who has had COVID apart from a distant neighbour who felt a bit grotty for a couple of days. It does sort of make it difficult to understand what all the fuss is about.
I flatly refuse to have the SERCO app so will never be “pinged” and apart from not being able to treat aeroplanes as busses so my wife and I can actually be in the same country at the same time, nothing had changed for me since last March……let’s hope everything gets better in this area soon.

Schools in England are now on holiday, so school children may no longer be tested,

Because of the pingdemic a lot of people are deleting their apps.

Both of these factors will reduce the reporting of positive cases.

Probably the majority of unreported cases are affecting younger folk who tend not to exhibit such serious symptoms and are less likely to end up in hospital.

However we are now finding that the majority of those who do end up in hospital are under 30.

I really hope this is a genuine downturn in infections and not just a downturn in reporting. I think it is probable too early to tell.

MayBee70

Will people do that if they’re due to take the kids on holiday next week, though?

Well no, they won't. That's why a number of kids were taken out of school early so they didn't have to do the tests in case they couldn't go away.
A teacher friend of mine has had to cancel her family holiday because on one day only at the end of term she went to do cover for a different class from her own where two of the kids subsequently tested positive.

Will people do that if they’re due to take the kids on holiday next week, though?

wrt school testing, they have asked that we carry on twice weekly and log the tests through the NHS system

MayBee70

I don’t understand because I know of far more people with covid than ever before. Given that symptoms now are more likely to be similar to a summer cold if you’ve been vaccinated could it be that many people don’t realise they have it?

Yes, me too, Maybee

We knew of people with Covid here and one or two older friends had it (and survived) but there seem to be more people getting it now, including younger ones.

GrannyGravy13

Today’s positive tests 24,950
Last Monday’s numbers 39,950

Still looking good ??

I think its interesting to point out GG13 that the number of positives in the last 7 days has fallen by 21% compared to the previous 7 days, and the total number of tests has fallen by 10%. So the reduction can't just be due to fewer tests, I think.

Does drug death rates have some relevance to covid death rates lemongrove, I must be missing something?

TwoWolves

Phew, those rates must have dropped so much since Scotland was reported as having the highest rates in Europe on the news only last week!! What can I say?

I haven’t looked recently at the Scottish rates ( Covid) but you may have heard that Scotland has the highest drug death rate in Europe.

Today’s positive tests 24,950
Last Monday’s numbers 39,950

Still looking good ??

Geekesse - totally agree that the only reason the infection rate is down is because schools are out therefore the same numbers are not being tested. Hospital cases are rising fast and visiting is no longer allowed at our hospital.

I'm seeing it suggested that:

a) People aren't reporting positive LF tests or going for pcrs to confirm, b) the app has been deleted by many people who might have been pinged & tested positive, c) with schools now closed fewer children, staff and parents are regularly testing, which may be missing out positive cases, d) labs are struggling to keep abreast of processing tests because of staff shortages (because of pinging) so there's a big backlog as yet unreported.

It is just too much of a coincidence that rates fall so fast in the first week of freedom.